You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided this year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we cover weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
After six straight splits, the crew struck out last week. I completely whiffed on Texas; I think Quinn Ewers just fired another incompletion as we speak.
Meanwhile, Collin had what looked like a certain winner with Michigan State before Rutgers inexplicably scored a touchdown on a fourth-and-28 ([) prayer into double coverage with under a minute to go. It was an absolutely brutal beat, but those will happen.
Let's close the year strong starting with a pair of double-digit favorites in Week 12. Hopefully, we can avoid any more backdoor shenanigans.
YTD: 11-11 +-0.9 units
Stuckey: Texas A&M -33
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+33.5 -110 | 47.5 -114o / -106u | +4000 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-33.5 -110 | 47.5 -114o / -106u | -30000 |
I've continuously faded Texas A&M all season, but I think it's time to try to catch the falling knife with an Aggies squad in the midst of their first six-game losing streak over the past 50 years.
This looks like a prime get-right spot for the Aggies, who can take out all of their season-long frustrations on a team they will have a massive talent gap over.
Plus, after suffering a heartbreaking loss at Arkansas State, UMass heads to College Station for its third straight road game. That's not ideal this late in the season for a team that lacks depth. Since 2005, nonconference dogs of 20-plus points in their third straight road game are just 23-38 ATS (37.7%).
Meanwhile, Texas A&M could get a few key skill position players back this week and is now two weeks removed from a bad flu outbreak that ran through its locker room.
Lastly, Jimbo Fisher has excelled in this spot historically. He's 26-13 against the spread (66.7%) as a favorite against nonconference opponents. That includes a 15-6 (71.4%) mark when favored by 28 or more, making him the most-profitable coach in that situation since 2005.
If the Aggies have any pride left, they should blow UMass out of the water in a game I project closer to -40.
Pick: Texas A&M -33 |
Wilson: UNLV -10.5
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 55.5 -112o / -108u | -410 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 55.5 -112o / -108u | +315 |
UNLV heads to the island with a 4-6 overall record on the season. With a home date against lowly Nevada to close out the year, UNLV has a great shot to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2013.
This is a massive game for the Rebels, who should have full focus for this conference road bout.
Plus, I still don't think the market has properly adjusted for the return of UNLV quarterback Doug Brumfield. Since coming back from injury, he has gone 2-0 ATS in a pair of one-possession losses to Fresno State and San Diego State.
The offense simply operates at a significantly higher level with Brumfield under center.
Brumfield will also have plenty of success by simply handing the ball off to Aidan Robbins, who has rushed for 250 yards over the past two games. Over that stretch, he has averaged over four yards after contact. That doesn't bode well for a poor-tackling (129th) Hawaii team.
Even with an extremely easy schedule (128th), the Hawaii defense still ranks 125th in Line Yards and 110th in Stuff Rate. UNLV should absolutely gash the Warriors on the ground.
Additionally, Hawaii isn't much better when it comes to defending the pass. On the season, it ranks in the bottom 20 in FBS in both coverage and pass rush.
Defensively, UNLV does a fantastic job in preventing explosive plays, which will make life difficult for a Hawaii team that struggles to sustain drives. The Rebels also have major advantages in Finishing Drives on both sides of the ball.
UNLV should have no issues moving the ball against this horrid Hawaii defense.
And don't be surprised if the Rebels defense also generates a few takeaways against a Hawaii team that has struggled to hold on to the ball and has had an abundance of turnover-worthy throws in recent weeks.
Lastly, don't be afraid of Hawaii's home-field advantage. Despite all of the narratives about the island mystique, the Warriors are just 26-44-2 ATS (37.1%) at home since 2011, failing to cover by more than a field goal per game on average. Only Akron (23-42 ATS) has been less profitable at home over that span.
Pick: UNLV -10.5 |
