We continue Saturday's NCAAF slate with my five Saturday night spots, including Week 12 college football picks and predictions for Saturday, Nov. 16.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 12, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 53-39-1 (57.6%)
- Overall: 152-109-2 (58.2%)
Stuckey's Week 12 College Football Picks for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | San Jose State +14 |
  | 7 p.m. | Kansas State -8.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | South Alabama +8.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Georgia -9 |
  | 10:15 p.m. | Kansas +3.5 |
San Jose State +14 vs. Boise State
7 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
We're going back to the Boise State fade this week. The Broncos have had a super impressive season and remain in the driver's seat for a spot in the College Football Playoff, but I believe they're getting too rich in the market.
Running back Ashton Jeanty is the star of the show, but his efficiency has ticked down a bit overall over the past handful of games. There could be some season-long fatigue, but the offensive line injuries have also played a role.
San Jose State's defense isn't great by any stretch, but the Spartans do a very good job of limiting explosive runs, which is paramount against the nation's leading rusher.
More importantly, San Jose State's offense can keep up against a very pedestrian Boise State defense that I have rated right around the national average.
The Broncos get after opposing quarterbacks at an exceptional rate, but the secondary remains vulnerable (92nd EPA per Pass). Well, that's exactly where San Jose State will attack.
It starts with a tremendous wide receiver tandem on the outside in Justin Lockhart and Nick Nash, the nation's leading receiver by over 100 yards through 11 weeks.
It's also worth noting that Boise State's defensive captain, Alexander Teubner, left last week's game with an injury. The sixth-year starting senior safety is invaluable to everything Boise does on defense.
He was spotted on crutches at the end of last week's game, so his status is definitely in doubt. He would be sorely missed as the green dot who quarterbacks the entire group.
The drop-off to his replacement is pretty significant for a unit that has already been one of the worst in the nation at preventing pass explosives, which is extremely problematic against the Spartans.
Walker Eget has recently taken over at quarterback for SJSU. He has only three touchdown passes and six interceptions, but he has 14 Big-Time Throws to just six Turnover-Worthy plays with a whopping 14.7 ADOT that ranks first among 150 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Eget's aggressiveness should come in handy against this Boise State secondary. Plus, he looks much more comfortable under pressure than original starter Emmett Brown, which is critical against the relentless Boise State pass rush.
For reference, Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen has a sparkling 18:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio but just four Big-Time Throws to 10 Turnover-Worthy Plays with a much lower ADOT of 9.4.
Don't be surprised if Madsen throws a pick or two here.
Lastly, San Jose State has been pretty unlucky on less-predictive late downs on both sides of the ball compared to its very strong early-down data. The Spartans have some potential positive regression coming their way in a number of areas.
Boise is getting everybody's best effort, and this should be no different against a feisty Spartans squad playing in their Super Bowl with an offense more than capable of keeping up.
I do worry about the special teams mismatch, but in Nick Nash we trust.
Notable Nugget
Ken Niumatalolo is 26-13 ATS (66.7%) as a double-digit underdog, covering by over six points per game.
In fairness, most of that success came at his previous stop where Navy profiled as an appetizing large dog due to its style of play, but he's 1-0 ATS in this role at San Jose State with a near upset of Washington State earlier this season.
Projection: San Jose State +11.8
Pick: San Jose State +14 (Play to +13.5)
| |  | | |
Kansas State -8.5 vs. Arizona State
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Credit to Kenny Dillingham for getting the Sun Devils off to a 7-2 start after a disastrous injury-filled 2023 campaign. With that said, ASU has been one of the luckiest teams in the country to date.
Not only do the Sun Devils have a 5-1 record in one-possession games with a +7 season-long turnover margin, but they have gotten quite a few other breaks that don't even show up in the box score.
For starters, they benefited from playing a completely hampered Cam Rising in a game Utah still managed to outgain the Sun Devils but couldn't overcome the turnover differential and red-zone issues.
Also, just look at last week's win over UCF. The Knights finished with a 406-260 net yardage advantage, but missed two field goals, gave up a blocked punt for a touchdown and threw a mind-numbing interception in the final minute of the first half with under a minute to go at their own 1-yard line, which ASU returned for a second non-offensive touchdown.
Despite all of those self-inflicted blunders, UCF still had a chance to win late before ultimately falling, 35-31. The Sun Devils easily could have two or three more losses, in which case this line would probably be sitting above 10, which is where I project it.
Conversely, Kansas State comes into this game with the same record as Arizona State but has done so against a much more difficult schedule and without any of the good fortune.
The Wildcats lost, 38-9, at BYU in a game where they finished with a 367-241 net yardage edge but couldn't overcome giving up 28 points in the blink of an eye with the Cougars gaining just 56 total yards over that span thanks to multiple turnovers and two non-offensive touchdowns.
In Kansas State's most recent loss at Houston, it held the Cougars to just 232 total yards (+95 net) but blew a nine-point fourth-quarter lead after the Cougars scored two late touchdowns with just 65 combined yards across the pair of scoring drives.
The Wildcats also had to play Kansas after the Jayhawks really started to figure things out.
On the surface, this is just a great buy-low spot on the Wildcats, who should come out with their hair on fire after sitting on that Houston loss for two weeks during the bye. I'd also expect a rested and healthy Avery Johnson to use his legs more with their Big 12 title hopes hanging in the balance. Kansas State should have no issues moving the ball against a very mediocre ASU defense.
It's also a prime opportunity to sell high on the lucky Sun Devils, who also don't have an ideal matchup.
I'm assuming Arizona State star running back Cam Skattebo will suit up after missing last week with an injury, but that isn't set in stone. Regardless, even if he's fully healthy, Kansas State can contain the bruising former Sacramento State transfer.
The Wildcats boast one of the nation's top rush defenses, ranking third in Success Rate and 10th in EPA per Rush. Teams that can slow down Arizona State on the ground can choke out its offense.
You have to attack this Kansas State defense through the air, and I just don't trust quarterback Sam Leavitt to do that on a consistent basis in known passing situations, assuming the Wildcats do indeed slow down Skattebo.
Lastly, don't sleep on Kansas State's enormous advantage on special teams.
I'll happily take what I show as a discount with the home team (off of a bye) that I have power-rated as the clear No. 1 in the Big 12 against an overrated ASU bunch.
Notable Nugget
At Kansas State, Chris Klieman is 16-6 ATS (72.7%) as a home favorite, covering by 8.75 points per game.
Projection: Kansas State -10.9
Pick: Kansas State -8.5 (Play to -9.5)
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South Alabama +8.5 at Louisiana
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Louisiana has entered the fringe College Football Playoff chat after an impressive 8-1 start. However, I'm not fully sold on the Ragin' Cajuns, who I believe are now at the peak of their market value at this price.
Let's take a closer look at their eight wins — five of which came by 10 points or less.
- Grambling
- Kennesaw State
- Wake Forest
- Southern Miss
- Appalachian State
- Coastal Carolina
- Texas State
- Arkansas State
Even excluding Grambling, per my most recent power ratings, the other seven teams they beat have an average overall rank of 99th with a defensive rank of 109th.
One of their two best wins came over Texas State by six in a game in which the Bobcats finished with a -2 turnover margin and lost their starting quarterback to injury, which hasn't been the only game where Louisiana has benefited from the opposing quarterback it faced at the time.
The other impressive victory came on the road against Wake Forest by three in a dead-even game statistically in which the Demon Deacons lost the turnover battle and missed a game-tying 42-yard field goal as time expired.
They did blow out Arkansas State last week, but their other league wins came by 10 points each against lowly Southern Miss, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State. The Chants were tied in the fourth quarter, and the Mountaineers trailed by just three in the final frame but finished with a -4 turnover margin after giving the ball away on four of their final five possessions.
While South Alabama's record looks much worse at 4-5, keep in mind it lost at an improved Ohio team by seven without starting quarterback Gio Lopez. Plus, both of its league losses have come by a combined six points.
It lost by two to Arkansas State on a last-second field goal and by four to Georgia Southern after blowing a 30-16 fourth-quarter lead in one of the biggest meltdowns of the year in which Gio Lopez also left the game with a concussion late.
With a few better bounces, the Jaguars are playing this game for first place, and this line probably sits at a touchdown or slightly less.
The Ragin' Cajuns have played good football this season, but they've also been quite fortunate against a bottom-20 schedule.
I believe that's inflating their price tag against a pretty competitive South Alabama squad that should benefit from a much-needed bye week where they hopefully addressed some of the penalty issues that have plagued it all season.
The Jaguars can certainly match scores against a very vulnerable Louisiana defense that ranks 128th in overall Success Rate and 124th in Tackles for Loss.
Their talented backfield should have a field day on the ground in particular.
That should set everything else up for Lopez, who shouldn't have to deal with overwhelming pressure in this particular matchup, which has caused major issues due to a fairly weak offensive line.
These teams are much closer than their records and this line indicates, so give me the road dog to keep this within one possession. I wouldn't be shocked if the Jaguars pulled off the outright upset.
Notable Nugget
Sun Belt home teams in conference play have not fared well (44%) against the number over the past two decades, especially as touchdown-plus favorites: 118-159-6 (42.6%).
Also, Louisiana head coach Michael Desormeaux is 4-7 ATS (36.4%) as a favorite of seven or more points against FBS foes with four outright losses.
Projection: South Alabama +6.7
Pick: South Alabama +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
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Georgia -9 vs. Tennessee
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Georgia, off an embarrassing loss, comes home to take on an overrated Tennessee team that hasn't played a road game since losing at Arkansas.
I'll ride with Kirby Smart in this spot all day, especially after the Dawgs got slotted one spot out of the College Football Playoff on Tuesday.
Although, it's not like Smart needs any more motivation with one more loss likely ending Georgia's season. From a motivational standpoint, Georgia should be the much more desperate team against the one-loss Vols.
Georgia's offense certainly has problems. The offensive line has a few holes and is dealing with some injuries with Kirby's comments this week about the guard situation giving me some pause.
The pass-catching room is also nowhere near the caliber we've become accustomed to seeing in Athens.
Plus, Carson Beck has looked like prime ghost-seeing Sam Darnold way too often this year. That's concerning against a dominant Tennessee defensive line that could create plenty of Havoc.
With that said, I believe Georgia can still get to the mid-to-upper 20s against a vulnerable Tennessee secondary. In my eyes, that should be enough to win by double digits if the Dawgs defense dominates how I expect.
Plus, nobody knows how to slow down the Josh Heupel offense better than Smart and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann. Here are the results since Heupel took over at Tennessee with two of the three meetings coming in Knoxville:
- 2021: 41-17, Georgia
- 2022: 27-13, Georgia
- 2023: 38-10, Georgia
The Vols have been completely shut down and have had much more potent offenses than this current version, which is completely broken. The run game has dipped in efficiency in league play in part due to issues along the offensive line and star back Dylan Sampson even got a bit banged up last week.
Meanwhile, Nico Iamaleava still has a long way to go at quarterback and won't kill opposing defenses with his legs, which has always been an area of weakness for Georgia's stop units under Smart.
For what it's worth, rumors have been floating around that Nico may miss this game with a concussion after leaving last week with an injury. I'm operating under the assumption that he will suit up, but that's certainly worth mentioning with a very poor backup behind him in Gaston Moore, a fifth-year senior walk-on who transferred in from UCF.
The Tennessee wide receiver room has also been a bit of a disappointment overall. It's just not clicking overall and that's a problem against what should be a salty Georgia defense that I expect to duplicate the performance we saw against Texas.
Lastly, keep in mind Georgia has played the most difficult schedule in the entire country and arguably has two of the best wins of any team in the country with a demolition of Texas on the road and a blowout of Clemson in Atlanta.
Its two losses came on the road against a pair of teams projected to be in the CFP field in Ole Miss and Alabama.
Meanwhile, Tennessee's strength of schedule lies outside the top 50. The nonconference ended up being an absolute joke after what we've seen from Oklahoma and NC State.
The Vols' biggest win to date came over Alabama at home with Jalen Milroe clearly playing at less than 100%.
Tennessee also squeaked out a home overtime win over Florida in a game it should've lost. Its other league wins came over lowly Mississippi State and a reeling, injury-ravaged Kentucky team, failing to meet oddsmakers' expectations in either.
Give me Georgia with its back against the wall in a great situational spot between the hedges against an overrated Tennessee team that Kirby knows how to stop dead in its tracks even when it's moving at full speed.
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, Kirby Smart is 32-18 ATS (64%) against ranked opponents, covering by just under four points per game, including 13-6 ATS (68.4%) as a non-road favorite of a touchdown or more with a double-digit average cover margin.
Projection: Georgia -11.6
Pick: Georgia -9 (Play to -9.5)
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Kansas +3.5 at BYU
10:15 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
I'm going back to the late-night BYU fade this week and once again backing the Jayhawks, who I will likely look to continue betting the rest of the way.
Fortunately, Utah held on for the cover but blew a double-digit lead to keep this Cougar charade going. It was really an ideal result to set up getting over a field goal with a team I'm looking to ride vs. one I'm looking to fade.
It's even possible the Cougars come out a bit emotionally flat after that exhausting win over their in-state Holy War rival. These are just college kids after all.
This really is a matchup of one of the unluckiest teams in the country in Kansas against one of the luckiest in BYU.
It's pretty remarkable that Kansas comes into this game at 3-6, while BYU sits at 9-0 with a similar strength of schedule (Kansas slightly more difficult), yet I have Kansas power-rated above the Cougars.
That's what happens when one team goes 0-5 in one-possession games, while the other goes 4-0 with a pair of improbable walk-off touchdowns at home against two teams that likely won't even make a bowl in Utah and Oklahoma State.
After a slow start to the season, the Kansas offense has been absolutely rolling since the bye week with a now fully healthy Jalon Daniels, who's playing at an incredible level at the moment.
I'm just not sure how the BYU defense will contain Daniels and the dynamic Kansas backfield.
The Cougars really struggle against mobile quarterbacks, which is obviously less than ideal against the Jayhawks, who rank sixth in EPA per Rush and will face a BYU defense that ranks 106th in that department.
That's the biggest mismatch in this game.
My one concern is Kansas' likely loss of starting left tackle Bryce Cabeldue, who suffered an injury late against Iowa State. While Calvin Clements does have some experience, he's nowhere close to the caliber of the elite Cabeldue. If I had to guess, he's probably out.
Although, it's worth noting that BYU starting right tackle Brayden Keim left last week with an injury late against Utah, so he could be missing. It remains to be seen if the Cougars will get starting center Connor Pay back from injury, but he was at least listed on this week's depth chart.
On the other side of the ball, the Kansas defense really struggles against the run, but this is not an elite BYU ground game by any stretch — although it's definitely more dynamic with a healthy LJ Martin.
As a result, the Jayhawks can hold their own on early downs, forcing the erratic Jake Retzlaff into known passing situations against a pair of excellent cornerbacks in Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant.
The turnovers will eventually start to hurt Retzlaff, who has 18 touchdowns to just seven interceptions despite a 1:1 Big-Time Throw-to-Turnover-Worthy Play ratio 0f 12:12.
On the season, BYU has a +10 turnover margin, which has been boosted by a 70% fumble recovery rate and Retzlaff's good fortune.
We saw both last week against the Utes on two Retzlaff fumbles that would've likely ended the game but somehow bounced right back into his hands. The Cougars are also an unsustainable 16-for-20 on fourth downs this season.
Lastly, I give Kansas a substantial coaching edge in this particular matchup. The voodoo magic can't last forever — or at least that's what I tell myself. Even if it does, let's just hope it continues by one or two points each week.
Notable Nugget
Against FBS foes, BYU head coach Kalani Sitake has gone just 8-15 ATS (34.8%) as a home favorite of three or more points, including 0-9 over his past nine in this role.
Projection: Kansas +1.5
Pick: Kansas +3.5 or Better
