For the fifth straight season on our college football betting podcast (now Big Bets on Campus), Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
After an 8-2 stretch over the previous five weeks, we had our first dud in a while with a pair of losers last week. Arkansas came up just short for me, while Syracuse never got off the bus for Collin.
For Week 12, we are both rolling with a pair of short home pups in prime time. If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays out approximately 3.5-1 odds.
- 2018-21: 49-83 +4.1 units
- 2022: 10-12 +6.03 units
- Overall: 57-95 +10.13 units
Wilson: Arkansas +115
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
Historically, Fayetteville has been a house of horrors for Ole Miss. The Rebels have only covered once in their past nine trips to Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium with only one outright win in their past 10.
I think that trend may continue on Saturday night in what sets up as a pretty poor situational spot for Lane Kiffin's bunch. After a near-upset win over Alabama, Ole Miss finds itself out of contention for the SEC West Division.
Meanwhile, Arkansas still needs to win one of its final two games to get to bowl eligibility.
Keep in mind Arkansas has suffered three losses by a combined seven points and dropped a pair with a backup quarterback under center. With just a couple of bounces going their way, the Razorbacks would easily have seven or eight wins.
Additionally, I'm sure the Hogs want to avenge their one-point loss from last year in Oxford that ended 52-51 after a late failed two-point conversion. Quarterback KJ Jefferson accounted for six touchdowns in that game.
Speaking of Jefferson, he should return this week from his shoulder injury. Recent reports have him being the healthiest he has been in quite some time, which allowed him to practice this week. Head coach Sam Pittman stated he expects his QB1 to get the start.
Plus, I'm sure Jefferson is super motivated for this game as a Mississippi native who said this is the game he wants to win the most in the offseason. He should once again have plenty of success against an Ole Miss defense that certainly has holes.
Plus, the excellent Arkansas offensive line should dominate the line of scrimmage against a Rebels defense that ranks 115th in Standard Line Yards.
The Razorbacks also should benefit from the return of stud right tackle Dalton Wagner and versatile defensive back Myles Slusher, who each missed last week's contest.
The Arkansas defense continues to trend in the right direction and should have success forcing Jaxson Dart into passing situations. That's the key to slowing down this Rebels offense that features one of the most explosive rushing attacks in the country.
Arkansas did an excellent job defending the run against LSU and recently held Auburn's Tank Bigsby to just 22 yards on 10 caries.
For reference, Pittman is 13-6 ATS (68.4%) as an underdog, including 9-3 against top-20 teams. I think he gets another cover in an outright win as a small home dog in a game.
Pick: Arkansas ML +115 |
Stuckey: UCLA +110
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 76.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 76.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
USC has played only two teams currently ranked in the top 30 of my latest power ratings. It lost at Utah and pulled out a lucky win at Oregon State. It's certainly not the most sparkling resume in the country.
These are two very similar teams. Both have top-10 offenses and horrid defenses. However, I think the USC defense and special teams are a bit worse.
UCLA should run wild behind its elite offensive line against a USC defense that ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in EPA per Rush, Rush Success Rate and Opportunity Rate. That spells trouble against a Bruins offense that ranks first in the country in yards per rush (6.3). UCLA should stay ahead of the sticks all night.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson's mobility and scrambling ability should pay dividends against a USC defensive front that can generate pressure but has yet to see a true mobile quarterback in 2022.
USC should also have success moving it on the ground. However, it won't have the services of star running back Travis Dye. Plus, both star wideouts — Mario Williams and Jordan Addison — may not be 100% healthy.
Lastly, the turnover regression monster could show up and bite USC on Saturday night. On the season, USC has an FBS-best +17 turnover margin that simply isn't sustainable. For reference, UCLA sits at a much more normal +3. A few bounces finally going against USC is all it will take in a game that will likely only require the winning team to steal a possession or two.
Ultimately, I make UCLA a slight favorite even without factoring in any home-field advantage, which is marginal at best.
I think we are getting value on the Bruins after their loss last week to Arizona in which they may have been caught looking ahead a bit.
For what it's worth, Chip Kelly is 16-8-2 against the spread (66.7%) as a conference underdog, covering by 8.2 points per game. That includes a 9-0-1 ATS mark as a short underdog between 1-3 points.
Pick: UCLA ML +110 |
