Buckle up. We have another Saturday college football slate with wall-to-wall action in Week 13.
Week 13's schedule marks the second-to-last full Saturday of the college football season, so let's make the most of what we have while we still can.
Our college football writers hand-picked three best bets for Saturday's noon games, including picks for UTEP vs. Tennessee, Northwestern vs. Michigan and Stanford vs. Cal.
Without further ado, let's take a look at our Week 13 college football best bets and NCAAF picks — and be sure to check out our other predictions for the noon and evening kickoff windows.
Week 13 College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday afternoon's slate of Week 13 games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
UTEP vs. Tennessee Best Bet
By Joshua Nunn
Tennessee is going to have every statistical and talent advantage possible in this game against UTEP.
The Vols have better players, schemes and coaching — and they have the motivation to pile on the points to impress the College Football Playoff committee. They were listed as the “First Team Out” in the most recent CFP rankings and will need to win out and get some help in order to make the field.
Tennessee outscored its first three opponents of the season by a combined 191-13 while playing severely overmatched competition. The offense racked up over 700 yards twice, while a suffocating defense allowed 1.8 yards per carry and zero offensive touchdowns.
This offense has since come back to earth while playing against SEC defenses the last seven weeks, but UTEP doesn't have the strength or talent in the trenches to hold up here.
UTEP can't protect the quarterback even against weak CUSA opponents. It has surrendered 23 sacks and 70 tackles for loss so far this season.
Tennessee ranks seventh nationally in Defensive Havoc and sixth in Defensive EPA Per Play allowed, so it's not hard to imagine the Vols living in the Miners' backfield all afternoon.
The only opponent even remotely as talented as Tennessee that UTEP has played this year was Nebraska. In that contest, UTEP was outgained by 302 yards, and it was only the Huskers' inefficiencies in the red zone and absurdly conservative play-calling that kept that game from being an even bigger blowout.
We won't get that type of coaching in this game, as Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel has consistently kept the first-team offense in the game late in blowout wins.
Tennessee has scored late in games numerous times unnecessarily, and with the CFP rankings looming in the back of their minds, I would expect the Volunteers to go full throttle here.
Pick: Tennessee -39.5 (Play to -44.5)
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Northwestern vs. Michigan Best Bet
Michigan has been a popular fade this season. Once again, it’s the Wolverines’ opponent that's a hot side Saturday.
Northwestern is catching the attention of Action PRO models for a variety of reasons in Week 13.
First off, our "Road Dog, Low Totals" system is active when the Wildcats and Wolverines clash in the Big House. This long-standing, premium model is alerted to bet conference underdogs within specific spread and over/under ranges.
Realignment has added a wrinkle to this system, but not here: Familiarity and direct hits within the line and total strike a chord on the Wildcats to cover a big number.
Secondly, Northwestern’s also attracting interesting betting action ahead of Saturday: Using our “Conference Matchup, Heavily Bet” model, Northwestern against the spread has been a hot side for sharp bets we track.
Overall, these sides have cashed 56% of the time in the past, adding yet another PRO insight in favor of the underdog.
Pick: Northwestern +10.5 (Play to +10)
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Stanford vs. Cal Best Bet
The results from Week 12 are a bit misleading for both Cal and Stanford, who are scheduled to meet in Berkeley in Week 13.
Stanford beat Louisville with a 9% post-game win expectancy, losing the net yards per play battle.
Although the Cardinals dominated the box score, Stanford was granted generous field position for two field goals while connecting on a one-play drive that resulted in a 62-yard touchdown pass.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels was under constant duress, seeing seven quarterback hurries on top of eight tackles for loss by Louisville. Stanford now stares down its next opponent — a California defense that ranks top-35 in Defensive Havoc.
The Bears lost in blowout fashion to Syracuse despite a 50% post-game win expectancy. Cal won the net yards per play by +1.2, tripling the national average for methodical drives.
The Bears averaged a monster 9.7 yards per play on 19 rushing attempts but were forced to abandon the run with a 20-point deficit at halftime. The Bears did win the second half, 18-6, but it was not enough to overcome crucial mistakes made in the second quarter.
Cal will look for an important sixth win over Stanford, guaranteeing a bowl bid with a victory.
The Bears have the advantage in Havoc, ranking 32nd nationally thanks to a defense that's 19th nationally in creating contested catches.
Stanford is next to last in Havoc Allowed, allowing too many opponents to cash in with tackles for loss and sacks.
There are plenty of advantages for Cal outside of Havoc, including a rank of seventh in Defensive Finishing Drives. The Bears also don't allow methodical drives with a top-five rank in Defensive Quality Drives.
The advantages also extend to the offensive side of the ball.
Cal's skill-position players have been excellent in space, ranking 17th in missed tackles created. Stanford's defense has been dreadful with tackling fundamentals, ranking 129th in broken tackles allowed.
Pick: Cal -14 or Better
