Each week, to coincide with the release of the “Group of Five Deep Dive” under the Big Bets On Campus podcast banner, I’ll be sharing my Group of Five parlay of the week.
Not only did our 6-1 parlay hit last week, but it was also sweat-free to boot. Florida State demolished Louisiana, Troy held on to cover at home against ULM, and LSU pushed the accelerator to the floor against UAB, dropping the Blazers by 31 points.
With one week left in the regular season, I’m looking to finish with back-to-back big winners. It wouldn’t be a G5 parlay without a heavy dose of the Fun Belt, and I won’t deprive bettors of it in my final write-up.
We start with a big upset call down in Virginia, then head down to the Natural State for a low-scoring rock fight. And we wrap things up on the Farm in Palo Alto by backing a BYU band finally back at full strength.
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Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison
 Saturday, Nov. 26 12 p.m. ET ESPNU  |
Coastal Carolina ML +500  |
Grayson McCall is a heart-and-soul kind of player. He wasn’t just Coastal’s best player in program history; he was a leader.
He may go down as the most efficient quarterback in the history of college football. At the very least, he’s in the conversation. Watching him execute CCU’s complicated and diverse offense was akin to watching a conductor guide an orchestra.
But this spread and moneyline seem to rule out the Chanticleers with McCall in a walking boot. But Jamey Chadwell is a hot name in the coaching carousel for a reason. He has made something out of nothing before, and I’m banking on him doing it on the road in this game.
Keep in mind that an upset win and some chaos in the AAC could result in Coastal’s first trip to a New Year’s Six Bowl Game. With that carrot in front of him, I expect a virtuoso game plan and a 60-minute war with the Dukes.
Also, CCU is working with extra time to prepare. Its game against Virginia was canceled last week in the wake of the tragic shooting that claimed the lives of three UVA football players.
Chadwell and his staff added time to dissect a JMU defense that gives up big plays at will. Only two teams in the entire country give up more explosive plays than the Dukes. As a result, Georgia State scored 40 on them in their last game.
Whether it’s two quarterbacks, a wildcat package or a slew of trick plays, I foresee the Chants hanging around for four quarters and stealing a win late.
Pick: Coastal Carolina ML +500
Troy vs. Arkansas State
 Saturday, Nov. 26 3:30 p.m. ET ESPNU  |
Under 46.5  |
Troy keeps showing up for me this season.
Its stout defense has traveled well, and its game-planning has been predictable. I love that as a bettor. I want to know what I’m getting every Saturday.
The Trojans don’t give up big plays, checking in 12th in that department nationally. As a result, they give up only 16.6 points per game (7th).
On the other side of the ball, Troy still struggles to consistently move the football. Its offense, in a word, stinks. Troy ranks 82nd in Success Rate and a tepid 90th in explosiveness.
Troy running back Kimani Vidal is coming off a career game (242 yards, 2 TDs) and was named the SBC Offensive Player of the Week. But the thing is, Arkansas State is actually pretty good against the run. The Red Wolves are 43rd nationally in limiting explosive runs in 2022.
When you crack open the ledger, it’s plain to see that these two teams are comfortable playing lower-scoring games. These two have paired up for unders to go 9-5 in SBC play. Troy’s SBC unders have cashed by an average of 10.7 PPG.
If the Trojans can hold the Red Wolves below 20 points — which I believe they will — this game should be played in the 30s.
Pick: Under 46.5
BYU vs. Stanford
 Saturday, Nov. 26 11 p.m. ET FS1  |
BYU -6.5  |
At this point in the season, motivation is an important factor to consider. Can a team stay alive for the College Football Playoff? A division title? A bowl bid? Stanford is 0-for-3 in that line of questioning.
The Cardinal are clearly done with this season. They’ve lost four straight by an average of 26 PGG, and they just lost to arch-rival Cal by a touchdown.
Brigham Young, meanwhile, is picking up speed down the stretch. It scored an impressive road upset of Boise State and followed that up with a huge offensive showcase against Utah Tech.
Jaren Hall went for 456 yards and five scores against the school formerly known as Dixie State. With his receiving corps healthy, namely Puka Nacua, this team is dynamic through the air once again.
That’s bad news for a listless Stanford defense. The Cardinal rank 80th against the pass, 113th in interception rate and 82nd in sack rate.
Teams have been dropping back and picking apart David Shaw’s defense. And just for balance’s sake, Stanford has been pretty awful on offense. It ranks 81st in Success Rate and 101st in explosiveness.
The Farm won’t provide any special home cooking, and I wouldn’t be shocked if attendance was below 15,000 on this holiday weekend. I would play BYU all the way up to -9.5.
Pick: BYU -6.5
College Football Week 13 Group of Five Parlay (+1900)
Coastal Carolina ML +500
Troy vs. Arkansas State Under 46.5
