We continue Saturday's NCAAF slate with my five Saturday night spots, including Week 13 college football picks and predictions for Saturday, Nov. 23.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 13, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 62-41-1 (60.2%)
- Overall: 161-111-2 (59.2%)
Stuckey's Week 13 College Football Picks for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | Army +14.5 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | Fresno State -2.5 |
Army +14.5 at Notre Dame
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
I’m getting a service academy in what should be a game with an extremely limited number of possessions between two slow teams over the key number of 14, which is critical in games involving service academies.
Army has played a laughable strength of schedule, which does make the Black Knights tough to rate. However, who has Notre Dame played since losing to NIU — a quasi-MAC version of Army? Absolutely nobody.
And yet, I’ve seen cracks in its run defense.
Army can sustain a few long drives here with what should be a healthier Bryson Daily coming out of the bye. And that’s all it might take against a Notre Dame defense that might be without one of its stalwarts along the defensive line.
Yes, Notre Dame rolled Navy, but the Mids turned it over six times, which let ND run away and hide, taking the Midshipmen out of their game plan with a hurt QB.
Now, I’m getting over two touchdowns (which Navy didn’t get) with a more true triple option team that I have power-rated better than Navy.
Give me the points.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, service academies catching over two touchdowns have gone 44-26-2 ATS (62.9%), covering by 5 points per game.
Projection: Army +13.5
Pick: Army +14.5 or Better
| |
Fresno State -2.5 vs. Colorado State
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
Colorado State controls its own destiny for a trip to the Mountain West Championship game. Not many expected the Rams to be in this position with a still unblemished conference record.
You have to give a ton of credit to head coach Jay Norvell, who has done a tremendous job in his third season in Fort Collins.
He has completely transformed the offense from one of the most pass-heavy in the country to one of the least (top-five to bottom 20), relying on a strong rushing attack behind a very underrated offensive line — especially since losing star wide receiver Tory Horton to a season-ending injury in their first conference game.
With that said, Colorado State certainly has benefited from an extremely favorable league schedule that doesn't include Boise or UNLV after only winning two nonconference games against Northern Colorado and UTEP.
Let's take a look at its Mountain West wins:
- vs. San Jose State by seven (even game statistically)
- at Air Force by eight (Falcons have since benched their QB)
- vs. New Mexico by 11 (Lobos had 453-334 net yardage edge)
- at Nevada by 17 (Pack had 441-327 net yardage edge)
- vs. Wyoming by 14 (well-deserved dominant victory)
That's as easy as it gets. And despite outgaining Wyoming by over 200 yards last week, the Rams only hold a +41 total net yardage advantage in league play.
There have definitely been some misleading final scores in part due to a +7 turnover margin, favorable matchups against porous run defenses and key opposing injuries.
Well, now the opposite holds true for Colorado State, which got very beat up last week against Wyoming.
In their new offensive identity, the Rams have relied on the excellent running back tandem of Avery Morrow and Justin Marshall. Well, both left last Friday with injuries, so their health remains a major question this weekend.
Consequently, the Rams might have to be much more reliant on freshman Jalen Dupree.
On the other side of the ball, top cornerback Dom Jones also went to the locker room with an injury. He would be a major loss for a secondary that doesn't have great talent or depth on the perimeter.
The Rams do boast a strong safety duo in Jack Howell and Henry Blackburn, but Howell has missed the past two games with a foot injury. And once again, they will rely on a freshman to help fill the void if he can't go again.
It obviously didn't hurt them against Wyoming's anemic passing attack — one that was also missing its only reliable weapon and finished with seven drops — but it certainly will against Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene, who has really started to pick it up over his past three games.
It's also worth noting Fresno State recently saw the return of left tackle Jacob Spomer two games ago. When he went down with an injury late last season, the offense completely cratered, and that position had been a glaring weakness until he came back.
The offensive line is now in much better shape.
The Bulldogs should get Dean Clark back at safety, although they could be without a key receiver and starting cornerback.
However, they still have enough juice on the outside to take advantage of this potentially shorthanded Colorado State secondary, and the Rams don't really have elite wide receiver talent sans Horton.
From a matchup perspective, Fresno State can't run the ball a lick (outside the top 120 in EPA and Success Rate), which neuters Colorado State's primary defensive strength.
The Rams do have a legit run defense but can be exploited through the air, ranking outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate allowed. Fortunately for Fresno, that's exactly where it wants to attack, as it ranks 106th in rush rate.
The Fresno run defense is definitely more vulnerable than its secondary, but it has enough capable bodies to contain Colorado State in this one.
Situationally, this is a big game for Fresno State's bowl hopes, as the Bulldogs are sitting on five wins with a road trip to UCLA on deck. I expect max effort in their final home game out of the bye after getting upset by Air Force.
Plus, getting to play spoiler should provide them with some extra mojo against a Colorado State team that doesn't have much experience in this pressure-filled role.
Plus, while Fresno's record doesn't look great at 5-5, it has three one-possession losses with two coming in heartbreaking fashion against Hawaii (game-winning touchdown in final seconds to win by one) and Washington State (pick-six while trailing in fourth quarter flipped game).
Its other two losses came on the road against UNLV when it was blindsided by a quarterback change and Michigan in Week 1 in a game it trailed by only six late in the fourth quarter before another pick-six flipped the script.
On the surface, I have Fresno power-rated higher than Colorado State. For what it's worth, with a slightly tougher overall schedule, the Bulldogs are a net 0.3 yards per play better than the Rams against FBS foes excluding garbage time, ranking 37th nationally in that department.
Plus, I believe this is a favorable matchup and great buy-low/sell-high spot with some potential key absences for Colorado State.
Notable Nugget
Historically, Fresno State has not thrived as a home favorite in league play. Since 2005, the Bulldogs have gone just 20-35-1 ATS (36.4%) in this role.
Projection: Fresno State -3.5
Pick: Fresno State -2.5 (Play to -3)
