Sadly, for the last time this season, I will share my favorite spots for this week's college football games. as I've done every Wednesday for the past two months.
Hopefully, we can avoid the regression monster for one final week and keep it rolling right up until the buzzer of the regular season. Although, there will always be rough weeks in this gig, so please wager responsibly.
Ultimately, the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, you still have to factor in how much value the number holds. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
My primary goal is to simply help you make one or two of those same tough wagering decisions while sharing a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game.
Week 13 College Football Situational Spots ⋅ Saturday Night
Last week's 12 spots finished 7-5 to bring the six-week running tally to 39-16-1 (70.9%). For Week 13, I have highlighted my top 10 college football betting spots, which span Friday and Saturday:
- Friday, Nov. 25: Noon – 7:30 p.m. ET (3 picks)
- Saturday Afternoon: Noon – 4 p.m. ET (4 picks)
- Saturday Night: 7:30 – 10:30 p.m. ET (3 picks)
This particular article focuses on my three favorite spots from Saturday night's college football slate. Find my top picks for Friday and Saturday afternoon via the articles linked below:
Notre Dame +5.5 at USC
I'm rolling with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as an underdog — a role in which the team has thrived this season, including an unblemished 4-0 ATS record. On the opposing sideline — a USC Trojans team that will carry all of the pressure on its shoulders.
Not only do I show value in this number, but I also like the matchup. I see this playing out similar to the USC vs. Oregon State game, which the Trojans should have lost if not for lucky turnovers.
Speaking of which — that happened again last week with four UCLA giveaways. There's certainly looming regression in that department; USC leads the nation with an insanely unsustainable +21 turnover margin.
For reference, Duke ranks second at +14. Meanwhile, Notre Dame sits at exactly +0.
Getting back to the matchup, Notre Dame should maul the USC defensive front with its power running game. The Trojans, who have one of the worst rush defenses in the country, should have no answers for the Irish on the ground. That should keep the sticks moving, clock running and the USC offense on the sidelines.
I also think tight end Michael Mayer could have a massive game after what we saw UCLA's tight end do last week.
On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame has a top-10 secondary that can match up with this USC potent passing attack. It also gives me confidence that we've seen the Irish go toe-to-toe with a number of elite quarterbacks already in 2022.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, no team has turned a larger profit against ranked opponents than Notre Dame. During that span, the Fighting Irish have gone 25-13 ATS (65.8%) against ranked foes, including 3-0 in 2022.
Vanderbilt +14 vs. Tennessee
I don’t see much value in this number, but the spot is too good to pass up. Ultimately, I’m trusting my intuition and backing the Vanderbilt Commodores for the third straight week as a 14-point underdog.
I’m just not sure that Tennessee gets off the bus after getting embarrassed by South Carolina to end any hopes of making the College Football Playoff. The Vols' loss even came after it got new life following a loss at Georgia. Talk about a gut punch.
Now, Tennessee heads on the road to take on a Vanderbilt team that will treat this game like its Super Bowl. After losing 26 straight SEC games, the Commodores have stunningly won two in a row as double-digit underdogs. Suddenly, Vanderbilt can become bowl eligible with a win over its in-state rival.
Additionally, Tennessee must turn to Joe Milton at quarterback after Hendon Hooker tore his ACL. That's obviously a major downgrade.
I'm also not sure the focus will be there all week for the offense practicing with a new QB1. Plus, we know the defense remains highly vulnerable.
Tennessee undoubtedly holds a major talent advantage. However, there's a decent chance that the Vols come out flat-as-a-pancake against a very motivated 'Dores bunch.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Vanderbilt has gone 11-6 ATS (64.7%) in this series.
Washington State +2 vs. Washington
I believe the wrong team is favored in the 114th Apple Cup, which pits two of the nation's most pass-heavy teams against each other.
The Washington State Cougars can potentially knock out its in-state rival from the Pac 12 Championship. Another scenario involves the Washington Huskies already knowing they has no shot after results from earlier in the day.
The Huskies have exceeded all expectations under new head coach Kalen DeBoer, in large part due to an explosive offense led by Indiana-transfer quarterback Michael Penix.
However, the offense might be a bit overrated bases on so many favorable matchups. Washington has faced seven defenses — Portland State, Kent State, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona, UCLA and Arizona State — that I have ranked outside the top-90 nationally.
Additionally, two of the Huskies' other victories came against a pair of the worst Power 5 secondaries in Oregon and Michigan State, which really favors the pass-heavy Huskies.
In their only two games against above-average defenses, Washington only scored 28 and 24 against Cal and Oregon State, respectively. The Cougars have a better defense than both and bring a unit that I have rated in the top 20 nationally.
Meanwhile, I don't think Washington State will have any issues scoring against a very poor Huskies defense. Remember — this is still the same Washington team that lost road games against Arizona State and UCLA.
Give me the home dog with the much better defense.
Notable Nugget
Since 2011, no team has been more profitable at home than Washington State. Over that span, the Cougars have gone 38-22-1 (63.3%) ATS, covering by over a field goal per game.
