For the fifth straight season on our college football betting podcast (now Big Bets on Campus), Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
Collin got things off to a good start in Week 1 with an outright win by Old Dominion. However, I couldn't follow suit the following day, as USF laid an absolute egg.
Hopefully, I can join the party this week with a medium-sized home dog that kicks off at noon on Saturday. Collin is rolling with a similarly priced home dog in prime-time.
- 2018-21: 49-83 +4.1 units
- 2022: 1-1 +1.2 units
- Overall: 50-84 +5.3 units
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays just over 10-1 odds.
Stuckey: Georgia State +225
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
First off, this isn't a great situational spot for the Heels, who will hit the road for their second straight road game against a Sun Belt opponent they may overlook after destroying Georgia State, 59-17, last season.
UNC may also come out a little flat after an incredibly thrilling win over Appalachian State in Week 1, especially with a bye week coming up prior to a meeting with Notre Dame.
Meanwhile, Georgia State should come out with its hair on fire at home against an ACC team, seeking revenge for that embarrassing loss.
Georgia State did lose its opener last week at South Carolina by a final score of 35-14. However, that final margin is extremely misleading when you consider the Panthers actually out-gained the Gamecocks.
They simply couldn’t overcome a litany of special teams mistakes after turning the ball over on downs inside the SC 10-yard-line on their opening drive. In total, the Gamecocks made two field goals from 50-plus yards and scored two touchdowns via punt blocks.
In regards to this particular matchup, it's fairly obvious the UNC defense has not fixed any of its issues. The Georgia State offense should have no issues moving the ball and controlling the clock with its run-first attack. Keep in mind that App State ran for 6.7 yards per carry last week against the Heels.
Defensively, Georgia State can generate enough pressure to force Maye into a few key mistakes. And while the freshman has looked tremendous in his first two starts, opposing teams now have some film to work with.
The Panthers have shown in the past they can compete with P5 teams. They won at Tennessee in 2019 and almost pulled off a major upset at Auburn last year. This veteran bunch should bounce back from last week's defeat and has a very good shot to pull off this upset.
Plus, it was reported that UNC star wide receiver Josh Downs will not suit up this week due to an injury.
Pick: Georgia State ML +225
Wilson: Stanford +240
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
The Trojans may represent the Pac-12’s only shot at getting a team to the College Football Playoff after both Oregon and Utah got drummed in Week 1.
That ultimately hurt the chances of a West Coast team advancing to the national semifinal.
USC remains the most obvious choice after kicking its season off with a 50-point trouncing of Rice. However, a closer look at the early play-by-play indicates the Trojan defense still has some very exploitable flaws.
The Owls started off that contest with a 16-play touchdown drive that took eight minutes off the clock. Rice couldn’t really sustain many drives after that, especially in comeback mode after USC pulled away in part due to multiple non-offensive touchdowns in addition to an obvious mammoth talent gap.
That opening score from Owls head coach Mike Bloomgren, who previously served as Stanford’s offensive coordinator, certainly caught my eye. Plus, the talent disparity will not be as wide this week.
Meanwhile, Stanford had an even easier path to victory over Colgate last week. Quarterback Tanner McKee, who possesses an NFL-ready arm, lit up the FCS opponent with four big-time throws, hitting five different targets for multiple explosive plays with an average depth of target of 10.1 yards.
McKee is more than capable of giving the Trojans fits. The USC run defense also may be a bit vulnerable, ranking below average nationally in Stuff Rate.
You may recall a three-win Stanford team pulled off two upsets last season against ranked USC and Oregon squads as 17.5- and 8.5-point underdogs, respectively.
It has a real chance of pulling off another one here, which would put a major dent in USC’s playoff aspirations.
Pick: Stanford ML +240
