You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article.
Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast. And now, we're back for Week 2.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To kick off the chalk talk in Week 2, we're rolling with an SEC and a Big Ten favorite in two massive nonconference games.
Let's dive into our college football predictions for Tennessee vs. NC State and Oregon vs. Boise State.
Week 2 College Football Predictions, Picks
Collin Wilson: Tennessee -9.5 vs. NC State
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 60.5 -106o / -114u | -350 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -108 | 60.5 -106o / -114u | +275 |
I was going to take Tennessee as my overdog at -7.5. That number is now -10 — it got whacked on Thursday, and I completely agree with it.
The Volunteers cruised over Chattanooga, while NC State struggled with Western Carolina. So, the question is, which one of those is real, and which one is fake?
Well, there's a real problem on the NC State side.
The Wolfpack trailed Western Carolina in the fourth quarter, and it wasn't pretty. Grayson McCall saw nine pressures, and two of those came from his blindside tackle, Anthony Belton. Now, the Pack have to face James Pearce Jr. coming off the Tennessee defensive line.
On the ground, eight of NC State's 32 rushing attempts were stuffed by Western Carolina.
The offense would have floundered completely if it weren't for Kevin "KC" Concepcion, who saved the day in the fourth quarter and finished with nine catches for 121 yards and three touchdowns.
Outside of that, it was a terrible performance in the trenches from a statistical standpoint. That's just not going to play against a team like Tennessee.
Plus, NC State also struggled a bit on the defensive side of the ball. Western Carolina had 42 snaps in standard downs compared to 17 in passing downs because the Wolfpack just couldn't put the Catamounts in third-and-long situations.
When a team loses a player like linebacker Payton Wilson, it's going to reflect on the rest of the team. The Catamounts did pretty well on offense, which nobody expected, but Wilson's absence was clearly felt in the drop-off at linebacker
Meanwhile, the Vols' attack on Chattanooga was disgustingly on point.
Quarterback Nico Iamaleava played like the real deal, completing 22 of his 28 passes for 314 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.
Tony Gibson is a great defensive coordinator for NC State, but his 3-3-5 defense exclusively runs Cover 1 and Cover 0. That's not the way to beat Tennessee. Defenses have to play quarters and Cover 3 and mess up the timing routes, which the Wolfpack can't do.
NC State cornerback Aydan White did have two PBUs at one spot, so maybe he can slow down Bru McCoy or Dont'e Thornton Jr., but that won't be enough against a Volunteers offense that's already in fifth gear.
This one's a runaway victory for Tennessee.
Stuckey: Oregon -20.5 vs. Boise State
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -105 | 60.5 -106o / -114u | +890 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -115 | 60.5 -106o / -114u | -1700 |
I think this is too much of an overreaction to what we saw last week. It was just a really weird game for Oregon against Idaho, especially considering the Vandals had two trick-play touchdowns.
Oregon's starting lineup was shuffled around a bit on both sides of the ball.
The Ducks' right guard was out (and should be back this week), forcing the starting center to kick out to guard and a walk-on to start at center. If that wasn't enough, a couple of players on defense didn't really play. It was as if the coaching staff knew they wouldn't need them.
I think that results in a really focused effort in a big nonconference game this week.
Now, Oregon's offense still put up a ton of yards and dominated the game statistically. Despite the 10-point win, the Ducks had huge advantages in total yards (487-217), first downs (31-10) and time of possession (39:15-20:45).
Boise's defense, as we saw last week, is still broken. The Broncos may have a lot of experience returning, but that doesn't always lead to improved results. That rang true when Georgia Southern put up 45.
Also, I think this spot favors Oregon. It's the Ducks' second straight home game, while Boise State went down to Statesboro to play Georgia Southern in the heat and humidity. Its defense was on the field for 85 plays, which is bad news the week before playing an offense like Oregon.
Ducks head coach Dan Lanning's entire focus will be on stopping stud Boise running back Ashton Jeanty, who's one of the best backs in the country. Maybe he breaks a few runs here like he did in his six-touchdown performance last week, but I still think we're getting Oregon cheap.
This is one where I think the market overreacted too much, so I'll go with the Ducks.
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