Week 3 is here in college football. You might hear some moaning and whining from less civilized portions of the fandom about how this week isn’t any good. Don’t listen to that.
Sure, there aren’t any big collisions of famous helmet schools, but there are plenty of fascinating games to go around. This week, you’re not tucking into a feast of 28 oz tomahawk steak. Instead, the slate is more like a spread of tapas, with plenty of interesting things to gather your attention all day.
(I don't know why I always end up making food metaphors in this space.)
So, let’s take a look at this small-plates schedule. Here's my Week 3 college football betting primer.
Friday, Sept. 13
UNLV vs. Kansas
In Lawrence, UNLV brings its innovative Go-Go offense to town — led by quarterback Matthew Sluka (aka ”Sluka Doncic”) and receiver Ricky White III — to face off with a Kansas team with a healthy Jalon Daniels at QB.
Arizona vs. Kansas State
A bit to the west, we have two teams designed to attack one another.
Arizona’s pass offense — led by the best one-two tandem in the country in QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan — faces off against a Kansas State secondary that's 102nd in EPA per drop back.
Kansas State’s mauling ground game — keyed by Avery Johnson and DJ Giddens — should have a good night against a Wildcats front that's been well below average against the run.
Saturday, Sept. 14
Alabama vs. Wisconsin
The Tide are favored by 16.5 in what's ostensibly the biggest helmet matchup of the week. They take a MASH unit up to Camp Randall, with a host of injuries, especially on the offensive line.
Collin Wilson is playing the Wisconsin team total under 16.5, and has a great tip in his weekly card:
"Alabama has tightened up in the red zone against competent Group of Five offenses with explosive players — an element Wisconsin does not have. Alabama's red-zone defense has been in terminator mode. In 10 drives across the Crimson Tide's 40-yard line, opponents have averaged just 1.6 points per trip."
LSU vs. South Carolina
LSU (-7) and its shaky defense will be in the limelight again for the second time in this young campaign, as ESPN’s College GameDay visits Columbia to feature this matchup.
Brian Kelly hasn't been happy with the execution of his defense. But the Tigers lucked out in their second turn on the big stage, as South Carolina might not have a competent enough offense to further expose them. The Gamecocks' offense is 124th in the nation in yards per play.
The best matchup here is in the trenches. South Carolina’s defensive line is reborn thanks to the arrival of five-star, all-galaxy recruit Dylan Stewart. The Gamecocks rank first overall in PFF’s pass rush grading metric as a team.
They'll face an LSU offensive line anchored by Sunday players, including future first-round bookend tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr.
Memphis vs. Florida State
Is this our first real playoff elimination game of the season?
Mike Norvell and FSU could theoretically still make it to the dance, if they run through the ACC.
Memphis, the program that launched Norvell to Tallahassee, is also angling for a spot, and a win over a Power Four program would solidify its resume.
North Texas vs. Texas Tech
At 69.5, this is the highest total on the board in Week 1.
Both teams have been playing a fast tempo and, um, generous defense.
Do you like points? Because I like points!
Boston College vs. Missouri
Missouri, the official team of the College Football Betting Primer, hosts Boston College (+16.5) in the only ranked-on-ranked matchup of the weekend.
Good news, Missouri fans: Eliah Drinkwitz is 14-0 straight up at Missouri as a home favorite of a touchdown or more.
Bad news, Missouri bettors: He's only 6-8 ATS in those spots.
Boston College shut down FSU’s pass game in Week 1, but it might have a tougher time against a Mizzou passing offense led by wide receiver Luther Burden III, who's all that and a bag of chips.
Washington State vs. Washington
Realignment has done weird things to college football geography. It's done weird things to college football broadcasting (Big Ten on CBS still feels weird).
And it's done weird things to the college football calendar, as a historic rivalry game like this belongs in the last week of November, not smack in the middle of the September sun.
Washington State vs. Washington isn't the only game that this applies too, though. No. 9 Oregon also travels to Oregon State at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Predictably, the Big Ten interlopers are favored over the Pac-12 remnants. Oregon is giving 16.5 on the road, and will need to clean its whole act up after a shaky start to the season. Meanwhile, rebuilding Washington is only giving 4.5.
Texas A&M vs. Florida
It seems like Florida is going to play both veteran Graham Mertz and five-star true freshman DJ Lagway at quarterback this week.
Lagway is a bundle of talent, but just a kid, and throwing him into the fire against a Mike Elko defense seems like a risk.
The Gators are four-point underdogs at home, and considering the nerves around all three quarterbacks in this game, that could make for a good live-betting opportunity based on whichever signal caller looks the most competent.
West Virginia vs. Pitt
Another edition of the Backyard Brawl kicks off in Pittsburgh, with the Panthers being a two-point underdog.
A home team getting points in a college football rivalry game feels like one of those bets you just close your eyes and take the gift.
Our PRO Projections system says it’s never that easy and thinks the line should be closer to a touchdown in favor of West Virginia.
FIU vs. FAU
The Group of Five Deep Dive is all about fading FAU and quarterback Cam Fancher, who's been taking a beating so far this year.
The Owls are a touchdown favorite at home against their in-state rival, but both Mikes are fading this outfit.
Calabrese likes FIU to cover, and Ianniello likes FIU moneyline.
UTSA vs. Texas
After last week’s excellent showing in Michigan, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers rose to the top of the board for the Heisman Trophy, moving from +1200 to +600 at BetMGM.
Forget the famous understudy; Ewers solidified himself as the best big-game starter in college football right now.
Colorado vs. Colorado State
PrimeTime’s program continues to grace the primetime broadcasts and command the college football airwaves, much like it did last September before falling into anonymity as the season progressed.
Last year’s clash between these two rivals was the biggest, weirdest and noisiest game in a big, weird, noisy season for Colorado.
The Buffs are favored by a touchdown on the road and should put up points against a slumping Colorado State defense.
New Mexico vs. Auburn
New Mexico might have the worst defense in FBS, which is good news for an Auburn team in desperate need of a good vibes weekend.
And if the Tigers don’t cover the 28 points, don’t be the kind of person who sends a Venmo request to Payton Thorne.
BYU vs. Wyoming
Wyoming, often a darling of bettors, especially at home, has had a rough 0-2 start to the season, and now the people are turning against Cowboys.
93% of the over 7,000 bets tracked in the Action App on this game are taking the Cougars and laying the 10 points on the road.
One better who isn’t backing down is Stuckey, who likes Wyoming getting all those points in his Situational Spots column:
"While the sample size isn't significant, for what it's worth, road favorites of a touchdown-plus after pulling off an upset as double-digit underdogs the week prior have not fared well historically."
