For the fifth straight season on our college football betting podcast (now Big Bets on Campus), Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
A donut for the boys last week after Georgia State blew a fourth-quarter lead and Stanford couldn't recover from two early turnovers inside the USC five-yard line. It's on to Week 3, where I can hopefully join the party with a winner for the first time this season.
For Week 3, we both selected two shorter nonconference road dogs rolling into Big Ten stadiums — one at noon and the other in prime-time.
- 2018-21: 49-83 +4.1 units
- 2022: 1-3 -0.8 units
- Overall: 50-86 +3.3 units
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays just over 6-1 odds.
Collin Wilson: Western Kentucky +225
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Quarterback Austin Reed has plenty to live up at Western Kentucky after a record-breaking season from Bailey Zappe laid the blueprint for how to lead this high-flying offense.
Albeit against subpar competition in Austin Peay and Hawaii, Reed has thrown seven touchdowns with an average depth of target at 11.4 yards. With 11 different targets through two games, wide receiver Daewood Davis leads the Hilltoppers with a potent 3.4 yards per route. More importantly, the offensive line has thrived in pass protection, ranking first overall in FBS per PFF. The early returns for the post-Zappe offense are promising.
WKU will take on a 2-0 Indiana team that started off the season with a home win over Illinois in large part due to Illini mistakes. Then, in Week 2, the Hoosiers trailed Idaho 10-0 at the half before a 23-point outburst in the third-quarter put any notions of an upset to rest.
Reed should have all day to work in the pocket against an Indiana defense that ranks outside the top-100 in both pass rush and coverage. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers offense has struggled in pass protection and finishing drives. The offensive line has major issues, which could ultimately cost them this game.
I think the Hilltoppers get their revenge from last year from a game they easily could've won.
Stuckey: SMU +125
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 72.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 72.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
There was some uncertainty surrounding this SMU team coming into the season, especially with how it would perform early on with over 50 new players on the roster and a brand new coaching staff. Well, so far, so good in Dallas.
Rhett Lashlee looks like a home run hire, which doesn't surprise me given his offensive background. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai hasn't missed a beat under center and Rashee Rice could ultimately lead the country in reception yards.
The defense also looks improved — although the lack of pass rush is a bit concerning through two games. Plus, the competition will get a whole lot tougher against a very explosive Maryland passing attack.
That said, I believe the market hasn't properly caught up to SMU's true power rating yet. I'd argue it might be the best team in the AAC, which nobody expected coming into 2022.
From a spread perspective, I project SMU as a small favorite in what should be an absolute shootout. Therefore, on a week where I don't fancy too many outright underdogs, I'll roll with the Mustangs in College Park at +125 in a game that won't need a fireworks show after its over.
Even if these are the same ol' Mustangs, they've thrived early on in the season in recent years. Let's just hope they are the last ones with the ball; that could ultimately decide this one.
