Week 3 of the college football season is upon us, and while it's not the most exciting slate we've ever seen, there are a lot of high-value underdogs to keep an eye on this week.
This week, I have identified five moneyline underdogs that are worth considering to pull the upset, and depending on your risk tolerance, playing in a round robin or a parlay.
While I've had some success with long-shot parlays in the past, a round-robin is also a very effective way of hitting underdogs you're interested in betting while increasing your chances of hitting and decreasing risk.
Each week, I'll be back with a long-shot parlay/round robin that will hopefully turn out some profit.
Some weeks will have just a handful of games involved, while there may be more legs in other weeks. And remember, this is an extreme long shot for a reason — please bet responsibly.
Read on for my college football parlay and round robin for Week 3.
College Football Parlay & Round Robin Odds
- By 2's: +809
- By 3's: +2596
- By 4's: +7813
- 5-Leg Parlay: +22894
Pick #1: Arizona ML +230 at Kansas State
We went against Kansas State in this very article last week, and for most of that game against Tulane, we looked like we were on the right side.
A questionable pass interference penalty late (and a horrible turnover in scoring range) swung the game, but there are plenty of questions with this Kansas State group right now.
The Wildcats gave up 342 passing yards last week to Tulane freshman quarterback Darian Mensah. While Mensah is a talented arm, he's no Noah Fifita (and more importantly, there was no Tetairoa McMillan alongside him).
McMillan failed to get going last week in a sleepy game against Northern Arizona, but expect a big game against a vulnerable Kansas State pass defense.
On the other side, Avery Johnson has managed games well and given his offense a chance to win, but he has failed to throw for 200 yards in a game thus far. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Conor Riley has chosen to lean heavily into a run-heavy attack.
If Arizona can build an early lead with some big plays through the air, the game script could force Kansas State out of its comfort zone, opening the door for an Arizona upset victory on Friday night.
Pick #2: Florida ML +160 vs. Texas A&M
Florida looked more like the team many hoped it would be in Week 2, stomping Samford at the Swamp, 45-7.
The big change with the Gators since their disaster season opener to Miami is the emergence of DJ Lagway, a much more talented option at quarterback than returning starter Graham Mertz.
Mertz missed Week 2 with a concussion, and while Billy Napier says he plans to play both quarterbacks, a changing of the guard may be exactly what this Gators team needs to turn the corner.
And their opponent this week, the Texas A&M Aggies, still have their own quarterback questions to answer.
Conner Weigman started under center and struggled mightily against Notre Dame in Week 1, going 12-for-30 through the air with just 100 yards and two interceptions — against the same Fighting Irish defense that Northern Illinois found cracks in.
Weigman was unsurprisingly better against McNeese in a game where they didn't need to throw the ball much. However, he still totaled only 125 yards passing.
If Lagway gets a chance here, the Gators can pull off a massive victory at home.
Pick #3: Purdue ML +285 vs. Notre Dame
Speaking of those Notre Dame Fighting Irish… they looked horrific on both sides of the ball in their home loss to Northern Illinois.
While a bounce back could be in store, there are plenty of questions worth answering here that may linger.
The biggest is whether or not they can find success through their passing game. Quarterback Riley Leonard is still seeking his first touchdown pass of the season while averaging only 5.2 yards per completion.
These struggles made the offense far too one-dimensional against NIU, as Notre Dame punted on five of its 10 drives and had three three-and-outs.
With Purdue at home, this game could come down to Hudson Card, who was nearly perfect under center in their Week 1 win over Indiana State. Card went 24-for-25 through the air, with four touchdowns and no picks in a 49-0 victory.
The Boilermakers had Week 2 off to prep for this game, and I'm sure they liked what they saw on film. This Notre Dame team is vulnerable, especially on the road.
Pick #4: Colorado State ML +230 vs. Colorado
A pivotal game for the Deion Sanders era offers up one of my favorite bets of the week: Colorado State to pull the upset at home.
As a team, the Rams have found success on the ground this year so far. They average 4.8 yards per attempt and have racked up 342 yards through two games.
Those numbers are more impressive when you consider one of their two games was a blowout loss to Texas, where the game flow called for plenty of throwing from behind.
Colorado has given up big games on the ground twice this year, allowing North Dakota State quarterback Cam Miller to pop off for 81 yards and two touchdowns before Nebraska running back Dante Dowdell posted 74 yards and two touchdowns of his own.
Expect the Rams to establish the run early and then put all the pressure on the shoulders of Shedeur Sanders, who was happy to throw his offensive line under the bus this past week.
A body language meltdown may be in store for Travis Hunter, Sanders and the whole Colorado team if Colorado State can throw some adversity their way in the first half.
Given how close last year's game was, this is fantastic value on the home side.
Pick #5: UCLA ML +136 vs. Indiana
For our final play of this week's round robin, we'll head out west to the Rose Bowl — or if Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti has his way, maybe they'll play in a parking lot.
Cignetti: "The Rose Bowl has a lot of tradition for people that follow football. For me, for the team, it's more of a business trip. Whether we're playing in the Rose Bowl or the parking lot, it's all the same." #iufb
— Zach Osterman (@ZachOsterman) September 9, 2024
There's no team that has been less tested in college football this season than Indiana, which needed a late breakaway rush to cover against FIU in Week 1 and then blitzed a Western Illinois program that has been winless for the last 2.5 seasons.
This is a big spot for Cignetti, as well as new UCLA offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy (former Chiefs and Commanders OC), whose offense looked awful back in Week 1 against Hawaii.
After a scoreless first half in their first game, the Bruins found some answers in the second, scoring on four of their final drives and eking out a win in Honolulu.
With Week 2 off to prep for this one, the wrong team is favored here. UCLA, playing at home in a prime-time spot off a bye week, is great value at plus-money — especially when the Hoosiers realize they're playing someone their own size for the first time this season.
