Week 2 is in the books, and we saw plenty of headlines — including a massive upset with Northern Illinois taking down then-No. 5 Notre Dame. Now, the Huskies find themselves ranked ahead of their bye week right before conference play begins.
While Week 3 doesn't have very many attention-grabbing games compared to Week 2, but there are still plenty of betting opportunities.
That's where we come in.
The goal of this weekly column is to find bets to make early in the week to get the best possible price before kickoff. That includes three games I'm targeting on Week 3's Saturday slate: Memphis vs. Florida State, West Virginia vs. Pitt and Washington State vs. Washington.
With money pouring in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday, the market moves a lot over the course of a week. That means it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
In an attempt to beat the market and get the best price, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you hopefully get the most CLV possible early on in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
Memphis vs. Florida State Pick: Can Tigers Compete?
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | N/A |
Memphis vs. Florida State Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Florida State -2.5 | Florida State -1.7 | Florida State -1.2 |
No team in college football has been a bigger disappointment based on preseason expectations than Florida State. The Seminoles have now lost back-to-back games as double-digit favorites, and now head coach Mike Norvell's old team is coming to town.
The clear problem with Florida State is the quarterback. At this point, DJ Uiagalelei is not the five-star quarterback he was coming out of high school.
He was competent in Oregon State's rush-heavy offense last year, but given that the Seminoles have struggled to run the football, the pressure is on him and he hasn't made the throws he needs to make.
Uiagalelei's downfield passing has been particularly troublesome. On throws over 10 yards, he owns an adjusted completion percentage under 50% and an on-target percentage of 66.7% to rank 78th among quarterbacks who have attempted at least 25 passes this season, per Sports Info Solutions.
The other issue is the offensive line isn't doing a great job of protecting him. Uiagalelei has been under pressure on 41% of his dropbacks and has a PFF passing grade of just 58.9 in a crowded pocket.
Florida State has also struggled to run the ball. Through two games against Georgia Tech and Boston College, the Seminoles have averaged only 2.5 yards per attempt, and the offensive line has an EPA of -5.02 in run-blocking situations.
On the other side of the field, Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan is back for his fourth season as the Tigers' starter, and has has improved each year. He shined bright with a PFF passing grade of 82.2 last season en route to earning second-team All-AAC honors.
What makes Henigan so good is that he's not only great when he has a clean pocket, but he's also really good when blitzed.
Opposing defenses blitzed Memphis 32.4% of the time last season. In those situations, Henigan has put up a PFF passing grade of 83.2 while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt with a 73.7% adjusted completion percentage.
He also ranked 10th nationally in EPA among quarterbacks who attempted more than 100 passes last season.
Florida State's secondary ranks 124th in PFF coverage grade this season and holds a mark of 111th in EPA.
All three projection models show value on the Tigers, so I like the value on them at +5.5.
Pick: Memphis +5.5 (via bet365)
West Virginia vs. Pitt Pick: How to Bet Backyard Brawl
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -112 | 60 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -108 | 60 -110o / -110u | +110 |
West Virginia vs. Pitt Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| West Virginia -10.5 | West Virginia -9.3 | West Virginia -3.1 |
West Virginia really struggled to run the ball in its season opener against Penn State — but that came against one of the best defensive lines in the Big Ten.
Now, the Mountaineers have a much better matchup against a Pitt defensive line that got gutted and lost its longtime position coach.
Cincinnati averaged 4.1 yards per carry against the Panthers last week, but West Virginia will be a much bigger challenge.
The Mountaineers finished 2023 with a rank of 22nd in Rushing Success Rate and 11th in EPA/Rush. They bring back both Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson in the backfield, along with 113 starts across the offensive line.
White is a big play waiting to happen. He averaged 7.7 yards per carry on over 100 attempts last season, with 29 of his totes going for at least 10 yards. He also put up a PFF rushing grade of 91.6.
Donaldson is more of the power back, and even though he didn't have nearly the same YPC average as White, he still racked up 11 rushing touchdowns and is great in short-yardage situations.
Pitt held WVU to 3.0 yards per carry last year, but White didn't play in that game — and the Panthers' run defense was much better in 2023.
On the Pittsburgh side of things, quarterback Eli Holstein didn't have a great game against Cincinnati and was incredibly lucky not to give the ball away multiple times.
He finished with a PFF passing grade of 49.6 with a whopping five turnover-worthy plays but ended up losing only one fumble. This came after he had three turnover-worthy plays against Kent State in the opener.
West Virginia's defense ranked 12th in Havoc last season, so it should force Holstein into a lot of risky throws.
The key in this game, though, is whether or not West Virginia can stop Pitt's rushing attack. The Mountaineers did just that in this game last year, holding the Panthers to 3.6 yards per carry.
Even though they lost some production from 2023, head coach Neal Brown still pulled some high-value transfers to help fill the void.
Pitt was incredibly lucky to escape Cincinnati with a win on Saturday after coming back from 21 points down. But now, the Bearcats will face a much better team with a stronger rushing attack.
All three projection models show value on West Virginia, so I'll take the Mountaineers in the Backyard Brawl at -2.5.
Pick: West Virginia -2.5 (via DraftKings)
Washington State vs. Washington Pick: Apple Cup Returns
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | +154 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | -185 |
Washington State vs. Washington Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Washington -11.5 | Washington -6.9 | Washington -9.6 |
Washington State looked really impressive in its first two games of the season, putting up 70 on Portland State and then routing Texas Tech, 37-16, in Week 2. However, the Apple Cup will be a much more difficult game.
Jedd Fisch is in a Year 0 situation at Washington, but the team he has put together through the transfer portal looks to be pretty competent for the situation it's in.
Will Rogers set some SEC records in Mississippi State's Air Raid earlier in his career, but now he's playing in a more pro-style offense. He's no longer being asked to throw the ball 40 or 50 times in a game, which really seems to suit him well.
He was nearly perfect in his 26 pass attempts against Eastern Michigan on Saturday, finishing with 11.6 yards per attempt, four touchdowns and a PFF passing grade of 90.2.
The reason he doesn't have to throw a bunch anymore is that Washington has an elite running back in Arizona transfer Jonah Coleman.
In Fisch's system with the Wildcats last year, Coleman averaged 6.1 yards per carry and led college football with over five yards per carry after contact.
Fisch's offense destroyed Washington State's defense last year, putting up 44 points and over 500 yards of offense. Coleman averaged 6.4 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns on the ground in that game, so Washington should have a solid game plan ready to go.
Meanwhile, Washington State is relying on a lot of transfers on the offensive side of the ball. The Cougars lost all of their key weapons from a season ago, including star quarterback Cam Ward.
Current starter John Mateer served as the backup for Ward last season and didn't show much through the air against Texas Tech, going just 9-for-19 for 115 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
He's a dangerous runner, though, and posted 197 yards and a score on the ground against the Red Raiders. However, that came against a front seven that was completely gutted from 2023.
The Huskies brought in some solid defensive linemen via the transfer portal and held Eastern Michigan to just two yards per carry in Week 2. So, if Washington State can't run the ball and Mateer has to throw a lot, that would greatly favor the Huskies.
All three projection models put the value on Washington, so I like the value on the Huskies at -4.
Pick: Washington -4 (via DraftKings)
