Week 4 of the college football season is here. We're starting to see some clarity on which teams are bad — Florida, Florida State, looking at you.
Some ranked teams are still skirting along, unbeaten but unimpressive. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State — that one is for you.
We're not yet at a true reckoning point, but another week of data helps crystallize our outlook. That's important because conference realignment and a brand new postseason format have muddied our collective crystal ball like never before.
Look at some of the conference games — yes, conference games — that headline this weekend:
Yes, all of these games will count toward league standings. What a glorious mess we’re in.
Another week of college football means another chance to get sharper about these teams — but also another chance to win some bets.
Let’s run down some things you need to know about this weekend’s slate to cash some plays in my Week 4 college football betting primer.
Friday, Sept. 20
Illinois vs. Nebraska
Both teams arrive into this game 3-0 after scoring big wins over Big 12 teams in Week 2.
The Huskers are favored by 7.5, but they've barely had to break a sweat on defense while playing a few cupcakes and a deeply-flawed Colorado offense.
Illinois will at least try to run the ball on Nebraska. The Huskers are 16th in the nation in raw rush yards per game, but are near the bottom of the country in some advanced metrics, like EPA/Rush and defensive line yards.
Saturday, Sept. 21
Charlotte vs. Indiana
Laying 28.5 points? With Indiana? Are you serious? Mike Calabrese is serious, calling the Hoosiers to cover his best bet of the week, and he likes it at up 30.5.
He broke down his pick on our Group of Five Deep Dive podcast, citing Indiana’s white-hot offense and Charlotte’s slump to start the season.
Mike Ianniello agreed, chiming in with this barb: “Much like cigarettes, [Curt] Cignetti is a stone cold killer.”
James Madison vs. North Carolina
Can the Dukes, getting 10.5 points in Chapel Hill, spring the upset?
North Carolina is suffering through quarterback woes, turning to third stringer Jacolby Criswell.
The Heels will rely on running the ball with all-galaxy tailback Omarion Hampton, but JMU is excellent against the run.
Tulane vs. Louisiana
Tulane is in a bit of a sore spot here. After back-to-back games against physical power-conference teams – first Kansas State, then Oklahoma – the Green Wave are licking their wounds.
They're favored by a field goal on the road against an in-state opponent and have their conference opener next week.
Collin Wilson is on the Ragin’ Cajuns, and he lays out some schematic advantages for the underdogs on his betting card:
"With Tulane ranking 112th in Defensive Havoc and 113th in coverage grading, expect Louisiana to maintain drives in standard downs to set up scoring opportunities.
Tulane has fielded a number of issues in the Havoc Allowed on the offensive side of the ball. Although the competition has been Kansas State and Oklahoma, the Green Wave offensive line has given up 16 tackles for loss and 38 pressures in three games.
Accurate passing has been a consistent issue for Darian Mensah, as Tulane ranks 130th in on-target rate."
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech
Arizona State, 3-0 to start the year, is an underdog by a field goal in Lubbock. The Sun Devils have been running the crap out of the ball, with Cam Skattebo bedeviling defenses.
The total sits at 59, but the thing to know here is the weather: sustained wind is in the forecast, with gusts to 32 degrees, which is the kind of element that cashes under tickets.
Miami (OH) vs. Notre Dame
Just two weeks after losing straight up as Goliath to a MAC David, Notre Dame welcomes in another team from the conference of giant slayers.
Miami (OH) will be upset-minded like its MAC brethren Northern Illinois as it takes the field under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus.
But Notre Dame’s blowout win over Purdue last week has restored the faith: Over 4,000 bets on this game are tracked in the Action App, and 85% of them believe the Domers will cover the 24.5.
USC vs. Michigan
For the second time in two weeks, Michigan takes center stage.
The Wolverines' offense is a shell of what it was last year during their championship run, and they now turn the reins over to Alex Orji.
This is a white flag of having any semblance of a competent pass game.
The Wolverines will need to squeeze the life out of the ball if they want to cover the spread (+5.5).
Recent USC defenses would've happily obliged to such a task by Michigan, but this year’s Trojan outfit might have a little more fire — and physicality — to them.
Utah vs. Oklahoma State
Well, I guess we’re doing this again with Utah quarterback Cam Rising and his “will he play/won’t he play” storyline.
Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has made clear his disdain for actually providing the public with anything resembling accurate information, so good luck deciphering this one.
The line has moved back and forth across the number. The current update is that Rising will go in Stillwater.
Vanderbilt vs. Missouri
Missouri, the official team of the Weekly Betting Primer, looks to finish off its warmup month as three-touchdown favorites over Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt.
Pavia has developed something of a track record as an upset artist, although his first career college start (with New Mexico State) was a demoralizing loss late in 2022 to these same Missouri Tigers.
Mizzou has too much offensive firepower and should be able to put away a Commodore team that's 96th in defensive SP+.
If you play college props or PrizePicks, expect a second straight big week through the air for wideout Luther Burden, who's all that and a bag of chips.
TCU vs. SMU
The Battle for the Iron Skillet has been a points-fest in recent years, with the total closing at 62.5 or above in three straight seasons.
But this year’s line is well below that; TCU is favored by 2.5 with a total at 57.5.
Both of the Horned Frogs’ games against FBS opponents have gone over so far this year, but if it’s going to be a third, they'll need some help from their rivals.
SMU, so hyped this offseason, has fallen on hard times to start the year and will be handing the quarterback duties to Kevin Jennings full time, relegating Preston Stone to the bench.
This betrays a more run-forward offense, as Jennings is not in Stone’s league as a passer.
Miami vs. USF
In his two seasons as South Florida head coach, Alex Golesh is 6-2 against the spread as an underdog.
His team is getting 17 points while hosting Miami, and the Bulls would love to get one back against an in-state bully.
Golesh is a Josh Heupel discipline and runs a similar uptempo, veer-and-shoot offense that's a great equalizer.
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma
The biggest game of the weekend is an SEC realignment speciality, a clash of bluebloods designed for maximum entertainment and television ratings.
This one has it all.
There are big picture storylines, like OU in the SEC and if Tennessee’s hype is for real.
There are personal storylines, with Heupel reuniting with his old school and coach.
There are schematic storylines; how will OU line up to defend Nico Iamaleava and the veer-and-shoot, and will Tennessee’s defensive line feast all day?
The Sooners are a home underdog of a touchdown and should get plenty of juice from what will be one of the best home crowds of the season.
ULM vs. Texas
ULM has exceeded expectations out of the gate in new head coach Bryan Vincent’s first campaign, but a trip to Texas is a dash of cold water.
The Longhorns are favored by 45 and will romp, even with the backup quarterback. (Yes, that very famous, very talented backup quarterback.)
Stuckey likes the Warhawks to cover in his Situational Spots column, predicting a conservative game plan from Texas coach Steve Sarkisian.
"While there might not be much of a drop-off to Arch Manning — who has shined any time he has seen the field so far in his young career — that means Manning won't come in to relieve Ewers.
Instead, it will be a freshman who obviously has talent but isn't yet on the same level as Manning and Ewers — a duo that, when healthy, makes it very difficult to fade Texas as a large favorite against overmatched opponents.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian also now has to be more cautious with Manning since Ewers is dealing with an injury, so maybe that means he pulls his starting quarterback quicker than usual with SEC play on the horizon next week."
Baylor vs. Colorado
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is expected to miss some time, a striking blow to the previous betting favorite for the Heisman.
In his absence, there's been a shuffle of the usual quarterback suspects at the top, with Cam Ward now the favorite at BetMGM.
But our Chase Howell likes the odds for Travis Hunter, and lays out the case for the talented two-way titan as a Heisman sleeper at 35:1.
Michigan State vs. Boston College
Michigan State heads to Chestnut Hill for the Red Bandana Game, with Boston College favored by a touchdown.
Both teams have crazy gunslingers at quarterback with Aidan Chiles and Thomas Castellanos.
This game will come down to who's able to prevent big plays on money downs; Boston College is about average when it comes to stopping passing explosives and late-down success rate, while Michigan State is near the bottom of FBS in both categories.
