Week 4 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions With Projected Spreads

Brett McMurphy

Updated:

Sep 19, 2022, 09:08 AM EDT

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Donald Page/Getty Images. Pictured: The Tennessee Volunteers.

Week 4 College Football Bowl Projections

It’s been an unprecedented time for the Sun Belt. Just last week, the league enjoyed the best week in conference history with two road wins over top-10 opponents and a first-ever visit by College GameDay at Appalachian State.

Recently, the league received even more good news. Because the Sun Belt added four new schools this season and Conference USA lost three members, the Sun Belt will receive an additional bowl tie-in this year, sources told Action Network.

The Sun Belt, now with 14 members, could get six bids, instead of five, while C-USA, now down to 11 members, will drop from seven bowl bids to six, sources said. These bowl tie-ins do not include if either conference earns the Group of Five's New Year’s Six bowl bid.

With the Sun Belt’s additional bowl tie-in, here’s how the 84 bowl bids will be divided by conference (if each league has the required number of bowl-eligible teams to fill those bowls). These would be the minimum number of bowl bids by conference:

SEC, 10
ACC/Notre Dame, 10
Big Ten, 9
Pac-12, 8
Big 12, 7
AAC, 7
C-USA, 6
MAC, 6
Mountain West, 6
Sun Belt, 6.

That’s 75 bowl bids guaranteed for the 10 conferences.

Add in the four playoff spots, a New Year’s Six at-large spot, an Orange Bowl berth for either the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame, plus the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bid, and that’s 82 total bids.

The final two? BYU and Army are guaranteed a bowl bid by ESPN to fill out the 84-team dance card.

Now that you know how the sausage is made, onto the sausage (this week’s projections). As always, each matchup includes the projected point spread based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2022 College Football Betting Power Ratings

CFP National Championship Prediction

CFP National Championship
Monday, Jan. 9
⋅
Los Angeles, CA
Georgia
PK
Alabama
PK

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Atlanta, GA
Georgia
-9
Michigan
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Glendale, AZ
Ohio State
-1
Alabama

New Year's Six Bowl Games

Rose Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Pasadena, CA
USC
Penn State
-2
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Arlington, TX
Oklahoma
-15
Appalachian State

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
New Orleans, LA
Oklahoma State
-2
Kentucky
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Miami, FL
Clemson
-3.5
Tennessee

Projections for All Other Bowls

Citrus Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Orlando, FL
Minnesota
Arkansas
-3
ReliaQuest Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2
⋅
Tampa, FL
Texas A&M
-3
Wisconsin
Music City Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31
⋅
Nashville, TN
Maryland
Florida
-1.5

Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Tucson, AZ
Eastern Michigan
Fresno State
-9
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Jacksonville, FL
North Carolina
LSU
-5.5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
El Paso, TX
Miami
-8
Oregon State

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Friday, Dec. 30
⋅
Charlotte, NC
NC State
-1
Michigan State
Valero Alamo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
San Antonio, TX
Baylor
Utah
-2.5
Cheez-It Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
Orlando, FL
Notre Dame
Texas
-5

Pinstripe Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 29
⋅
Bronx, NY
Pittsburgh
-6
Iowa
TaxAct Texas Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Houston, TX
TCU
PK
Mississippi State
PK
Holiday Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
San Diego, CA
Florida State
-2.5
Washington

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Memphis, TN
Iowa State
-1
Auburn
Military Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 28
⋅
Annapolis, MD
Wake Forest
-2
UCF
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Phoenix, AZ
Illinois
-1
Kansas

Camellia Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Montgomery, AL
Troy
Toledo
-1
Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Birmingham, AL
Virginia Tech
BYU
-7.5
First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 27
⋅
Dallas, TX
Arizona
Louisville
-9.5

Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 26
⋅
Detroit, MI
Rutgers
-5
Central Michigan
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 24
⋅
Honolulu, HI
San Jose State
-1
UTSA
Gasparilla Bowl
Friday, Dec. 23
⋅
Tampa, FL
Duke
Purdue
-12.5

Independence Bowl
Friday, Dec. 23
⋅
Shreveport, LA
Army
Tulane
-6.5
Armed Forces Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 22
⋅
Fort Worth, TX
Kansas State
SMU
-2
New Orleans Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 21
⋅
New Orleans, LA
Western Kentucky
Marshall
-4

Boca Raton Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 20
⋅
Boca Raton, FL
Houston
-4.5
UAB
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 20
⋅
Boise, ID
Miami (OH)
Air Force
-14.5
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 19
⋅
Conway, SC
Coastal Carolina
East Carolina
-8

Frisco Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Frisco, TX
Indiana
UCLA
-11
Las Vegas Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Las Vegas, NV
Ole Miss
PK
Oregon
PK
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Mobile, AL
Georgia Southern
Liberty
-5.5

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Los Angeles, CA
Washington State
PK
Boise State
PK
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Albuquerque, NM
UNLV
-7.5
Rice
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 17
⋅
Boston, MA
Syracuse
Cincinnati
-7.5

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Friday, Dec. 16
⋅
Orlando, FL
Louisiana
-4.5
Western Michigan
Bahamas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 16
⋅
Nassau, Bahamas
Florida Atlantic
Northern Illinois
-2
TBA Bowl**
TBD
⋅
TBD
Wyoming
Old Dominion
-3

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

**ESPN will create a bowl this fall to replace the San Francisco Bowl if it is not played.

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Brett McMurphy

Action Contributor

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About the Author

Brett is "America's College Football Insider" for The Action Network. Brett was nominated twice for a Pulitzer Prize in investigative reporting, but wasn’t a nominee finalist. A long-time voter in the AP Top 25 poll and for the Heisman Trophy, Brett was named the 2019 Beat Writer of the Year by the Football Writers Association of America. Before joining The Action Network, Brett’s previous stops included ESPN, CBS Sports, the New York Times, Stadium, AOL Fanhouse and the Tampa Tribune.

Follow Brett McMurphy @Brett_McMurphy on Twitter/X.

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