College football Week 4 is here, and it's time to jump into some of our favorite NCAAF favorites.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article.
Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast. We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
To kick off our action in Week 4, we're rolling with a Big Ten battle on Friday night before moving over to the Big 12 on Saturday's slate.
Collin Wilson: Nebraska -7.5 vs. Illinois
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -330 |
I really love Nebraska here against Illinois.
You can't put it in a stat sheet, but I believe one of these teams is much more blue-collar and tougher than the other — and the team that's tougher is going to be Nebraska.
Bret Bielema talked this week about the commitment that he needs to have against the run when facing Nebraska, and I can see why he thinks that. Nebraska really hasn't played anybody that's run well against them with games against Colorado, UTEP and FCS Northern Iowa.
The problem is that the Illinois rush has been great at getting two yards, which doesn't impact its Stuff Rate, where it ranks 15th. Everything else is absolutely terrible, as the Illini come in ranking 91st in Rushing Success Rate and 56th in Line Yards. This offensive line is not moving the pile.
Running backs Kaden Feagin and Ca'Lil Valentine are just going down right when they get touched, with both averaging less than three yards after contact.
Now, quarterback Luke Altmyer has been good — and he's had to be. He's essentially the Illini's only offensive option.
But when Bielema comes out and says that he wants to run in this game, that really affects Altmyer. They're going to try to grind it out and get in a punching match with Nebraska, and I don't think that's a very smart thing to do.
Plus, there's a massive Havoc advantage here for Nebraska, which ranks 17th in Defensive Havoc against Illinois' rank of 101st in Havoc Allowed. Considering Illinois' struggles on the offensive line, the Huskers could live in the backfield.
That even showed up in the Illini's win over Kansas even though they emerged victorious.
Nebraska should dominate on the defensive side here, and Illinois doesn't have any defensive advantages — especially against a Huskers team that ranks top-30 in Havoc Allowed.
They've been protecting Dylan Raiola, which has been huge for the freshman. He has five touchdowns to one interception entering Week 4 and recorded only one turnover-worthy play against Colorado. That's not bad against a Travis Hunter-led secondary.
There's just a massive difference here in terms of which team can actually establish the rush and own the trench. That team is Nebraska.
Stuckey: Texas Tech -3 vs. Arizona State
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
Arizona State is significantly improved this season, as evidenced by its 3-0 start.
However, while the start has been impressive, let's take a closer look at who the Sun Devils have beaten to start the season:
- Mississippi State (just got blown out at home vs. Toledo)
- Wyoming (0-3 with a home loss to FCS Idaho and yet to cover a game)
- Texas State
Two of those victories came by one possession, and the first two look much less impressive when examining other results.
It also hasn't hurt that the Sun Devils have gone 5-of-6 on fourth down and own a +6 turnover margin with three defensive scores through just three games.
Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt has provided a spark at quarterback after a disastrous season under center for the Sun Devils.
Leavitt remains limited as a passer (107th EPA per Dropback), which should serve as a welcome relief for a Texas Tech secondary that has really struggled against opposing pass attacks.
Leavitt's legs are a particular concern against a Tech defense that allowed Washington State quarterback John Mateer to run for nearly 200 yards in a Week 2 loss in Pullman. However, that experience should serve as a valuable tune-up for this one with the focus all week being on a more contained pass rush.
Texas Tech didn't get off to a promising start this season with a one-point win over Abilene Christian at home in Week 1 followed by a blowout loss at Washington State.
That 21-point loss to the Cougars was an extremely misleading final score and doesn't look as bad after Wazzu upset rival Washington last week. The Red Raiders actually finished with 75 more net yards but were done in by four turnovers (-3 margin) and a 1-for-5 performance on fourth down while Washington State went 2-of-3.
Most importantly, Texas Tech has dealt with as many injuries as any team in the country to start the season.
Star running back Tahj Brooks didn't suit up in Pullman, and four more starters left with an injury over the course of that contest, including the entire left side of the offensive line.
While starting left guard Vinny Sciury was lost for the season, the Red Raiders should get left tackle Sterling Porcher back on Saturday.
The defense has also dealt with a plethora of health issues but should be closer to full strength this week (despite still being without Charles Esters III), assuming their top two defensive backs in safety C.J. Baskerville and cornerback Bralyn Lux do go.
Both are listed as questionable but did play last week when Tech had its best performance of the season by far in a 66-21 rout of North Texas.
Quarterback Behren Morton, who struggled with injuries throughout last season, finally looks 100% healthy with 974 passing yards and 10 touchdowns through three games. That's a massive development for this explosive Zach Kittley offense, which I think now has a better overall group of pass-catchers.
It could be a long day for an Arizona State secondary that ranks 97th in Defensive Passing Success Rate in 2024.
Give me the better quarterback at home laying only a field goal — the same price Texas State closed at last week at home vs. ASU.
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