There may not be a better team to use as the symbol of Havoc than South Carolina.
The Gamecocks came up just short in a chaotic home loss to LSU thanks in part to plenty of Havoc. Interceptions, fumbles and turnovers on downs were just the tip of the iceberg in a game that featured 15 tackles for loss and 22 penalties.
Havoc is a collection of stats that measures how much the defense is derailing offensive momentum. The formula includes tackles for loss, pass breakups, forced fumbles, interceptions and sacks.
Havoc Allowed, meanwhile, is a stat used to quantify an offense's ability to avoid chaos that creates a negative play. Offenses that are elite in Havoc Allowed have a low number of fumbles, interceptions and tackles for loss allowed.
Through three weeks of play, South Carolina is the extreme on both sides of the ball. The Gamecocks rank 14th in Defensive Havoc and 134th — dead last — in Havoc Allowed on offense.
With three games of data for nearly every program, each team's offense and defense has developed an identity. The purpose of these Havoc Rankings is to identify teams that may be at a disadvantage on either side of the ball.
Before handicapping one particular Week 4 matchup, a quick review of the updated numbers for Havoc and Havoc Allowed:
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech
Rutgers Havoc Allowed: 1st · Virginia Tech Havoc: 19th
The 2020 hiring of Greg Schiano for his second stint at Rutgers was a signal that the Scarlet Knights would begin to protect the football. That came to fruition in 2023 with a top-20 rank in fumbles and tackles for loss allowed.
Rutgers is just one of six teams without a fumble in the early portion of 2024.
While Havoc is the most exciting defensive stat, teams with a higher ranking on offense hold the advantage. Rutgers currently ranks as the best offense in the nation in terms of Havoc Allowed.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, boasts one of the most Havoc-minded defenses in the nation with an overall rank of 19th.
The Hokies have generated 17 passes defensed, 18 tackles for loss and three fumble recoveries. Those numbers were primarily recorded in victories over Old Dominion and Marshall, while a loss to Vanderbilt left Tech without a single turnover.
Head coach Brent Pry's defense may struggle to force Havoc while finding no avenue to put points on the board. The Hokies are hovering just inside the top 100 in Offensive Success Rate, leaning on a top-10 number in pass explosives.
The Rutgers defense has shut down deep passing this year, ranking sixth in Defensive Pass EPA.
Plus, Schiano has a long history of preparing his teams off bye weeks, earning a 17-8-1 against-the-spread mark with extra time to prep, per Bet Labs.
Pick: Rutgers +3.5 or Better
