The final week of college football’s opening month arrives, featuring a slate packed full of good games – and one iconic matchup from Tuscaloosa.
There’s also some good late-night action, some intriguing games in the Big 12 and a hurricane to bring nasty weather to many parts of the country.
I can’t believe it’s already been a month. Think about the beginning of the season and how little we knew back then.
We thought Oklahoma would be good. We thought Notre Dame’s schedule was nice and easy. We thought Matt Sluka would be in for a fun ride as UNLV’s quarterback. We thought Indiana might be interesting, maybe even feisty, in Curt Cignetti’s first year.
Oh, how naive and foolish we were to think all those things. That’s what's so great about this sport – we're always learning new things.
Let’s watch some ball this weekend and learn some more. Here’s a rundown of some tips and things to know to get ready for this jam-packed slate as part of my Week 5 college football betting primer.
Friday, Sept. 27
Virginia Tech vs. Miami
Miami hosts the disappointing Virginia Tech Hokies as 17-point favorites. In the preseason, this looked like one of more critical games for the ACC standings; now, it’s just another affair as Miami climbs the ladder.
South Florida dodged Hurricane Helene, but not even a natural disaster can slow down Cam Ward this season.
Washington vs. Rutgers
Rutgers – yes, that Rutgers – is a slight home favorite against Washington – yes, that Washington, the defending runners-up. The Knights have a top-10 pass defense this year as measured by EPA per drop back, but they haven't faced a quality passing attack.
Will Washington be able to find flaws in the stout secondary, or is Rutgers up for its stiffest test yet?
Saturday, Sept. 28
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss
Speaking of first real tests, Ole Miss starts conference play against Kentucky after spending the first month of the season running roughshod over cupcakes. Lane Kiffin’s crew is 17.5-point favorites and has already covered four spreads larger than that this year.
The hot start has vaulted quarterback Jaxson Dart to second at BetMGM for Heisman odds at +500.
Maryland vs. Indiana
This revamped Indiana squad, a Franken-team of holdover Hoosiers, imported James Madison stars and coaches and hand-picked Group of Five veterans, is 4-0 to start the year. They seem to get better each week, and are a touchdown favorite hosting the Terps at home.
This is the kind of game you'll need to monitor for weather when building your card. Helene will be long past Florida by Saturday, but her outskirts and remnants will be bringing rainy days across the south and midwest.
BYU vs. Baylor
Each of these teams scored an improbable result last week. BYU was outgained by over 100 yards, but special teams and poorly-timed disasters by Kansas State gave the Cougars a dominant 38-6 win.
Baylor played well enough to beat Colorado, but collapsed at the end and lost in overtime.
Stuckey singles out these two teams and their respective paths to this spot in his Situational Spots column:
"Flip those two results last week, and I don't think Baylor is a home favorite of under a field goal."
"As long as they don't quit on Aranda, whose seat may be getting warmer in Waco, I like the Bears to take care of business at home against the newly-ranked Cougars, who may be at the peak of their market value."
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Both of these teams had eyes on the Big 12 crown coming into the year, but both took tough losses last week as their offenses have been inconsistent in the early going.
One of these two teams is about to start the year 0-2 in conference play and will be very unhappy about it.
Western Kentucky vs. Boston College
Boston College has already played a trio of tough games early in the campaign. It made road trips to Florida State and Missouri to take on teams that were ranked in the top 10 at the time, plus they had an emotional rain-soaked, last-minute win in the Red Bandana game a week ago over Michigan State.
Bill O’Brien’s ball club has been laying it all out there, and as 10.5-point favorites to a Group of Five team, it might find itself sleepy in this spot.
If the Eagles do, they might be in trouble; Western Kentucky has sprung to life in recent weeks since Caden Veltkamp took over the quarterback duties.
Colorado vs. UCF
Colorado, not exactly known for its stout run defense, travels across the country to take on a UCF rushing attack that ranks No. 7 in EPA per rush.
UCF, not exactly known for its stout pass defense, hosts Colorado and its full artillery. The Knights are favored by two touchdowns and will be hosting over 100 recruits at the game.
Fresno State vs. UNLV
By now you are familiar with the Sluka situation, UNLV’s quarterback, who's opted out for the rest of the season.
The stunning news caused the line to swing quickly from UNLV -4 to Fresno -1; it's since settled in at UNLV -2.
Sluka was a dynamic player, but not a consistent one, and the market seemed to recover from the initial shock to remember that he had only completed 42% of his passes for UNLV.
Oklahoma vs. Auburn
It’s hard to find a game with more existential dread seeping from it.
Oklahoma was baptized into SEC play last week by Tennessee; the Sooners took it so squarely on the chin that they'll turn to true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., meaning Jackson Arnold’s time under center lasted all of about a month.
The only shorter leash in the country might be the one held by Hugh Freeze, who's juggling veteran Payton Thorne and freshman Hank Brown, and is unhappy with both (although he's happy to throw both under the bus in his press conference).
This game is so unpredictable that you can get points with either team depending on the shop.
Georgia vs. Alabama
This clash of titans promises to hold all of our attention in the primetime spot. These two powerhouses have duked it out for trophies many times over the last few seasons, and it'll be a treat to see them meet in front of a rowdy, on-campus crowd.
Alabama is getting two points on the spread at home; the last time the Tide were home underdogs was 2007, Nick Saban’s first year at the helm.
Collin Wilson likes taking Alabama and the points, and he broke it down with a few expert notes, as usual.
He notes Carson Beck being out of rhythm to start the year, and Alabama’s excellent work defending slot receivers, amongst other factors:
"Beck's lack of big-time throws shines through when it comes to Georgia's number in on-target analytics. The Bulldogs' signal-caller ranks 116th in hitting targets in stride."
"Considering the Tide have been elite in defending the slot, Beck will be forced to rely on outside weapons or a stable of running backs catching balls behind the line of scrimmage."
Illinois vs. Penn State
Illinois, fresh off its overtime upset win in Nebraska, looks to double up on the feat by heading to another college football cathedral and upsetting Penn State.
The Nittany Lions are favored by 17.5 in Happy Valley, because the facetious “Big Game James” moniker doesn’t really apply to teams who sneak into the bottom of the rankings, right?
91% of you disagree; of the more than 14,000 bets on this game tracked in the Action app, an astonishing 91% of bettors believe Illinois has enough to stay inside the number.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Between Ohio State in primetime and Notre Dame in the midday slot, NBC has taken a pair of games featuring two of the largest fan bases in college sports and stuffed them behind an exclusive paywall on Peacock.
Listen, I’m paying for that service to watch the late, great Andre Braugher snarl at Baltimore criminals as Detective Frank Pembleton in the underrated “Homicide,” not to watch Ohio State play with its food each week.
But I digress.
The Buckeyes are favored by 23.5 on the road. America is still waiting for them to stretch their legs and put on a truly dominant display.
Florida State vs. SMU
In the summer, this was one of the most anticipated games of the year, but the shine has been lost from this matchup.
The Mustangs are favored by almost a touchdown at home in this conference matchup.
The under might be the play here. Both defenses have mostly met expectations, while their counterparts across the ball are lacking.
Specifically, the passing attacks have failed; SMU and Florida State rank 55th and 89th in EPA per drop back, respectively.
Washington State vs. Boise State
This late-night blockbuster is a surefire pointsplosion. The total sits at 64.5, with the Broncos favored by a touchdown at home.
Both defenses have been generous at surrendering explosive plays early in the season.
And both offenses are keyed by brilliant big-play stars. Running back Ashton Jeanty, of course, is that man for Boise (10.5 YPC). And quarterback John Mateer keys the Washington State offense, which leads the nation in explosives.
Oregon vs. UCLA
Big Ten After Dark just doesn’t have the same ring to it, but an Oregon team favored by more than three touchdowns laying the smackdown on a conference foe well past midnight will feel like familiar territory.
