Collin Wilson's College Football Predictions & Picks for Week 5
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Week 5 of the college football season is upon us.
The highlight of the NCAAF schedule undoubtedly comes on Saturday night when the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide in a battle between top-five SEC rivals.
Along with that matchup, I have two other games I have my eye on for my Week 5 Action Network betting card: No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. No. 23 Kansas State and Arkansas vs. No. 24 Texas A&M.
Check out my breakdowns for all three games, along with my Week 5 college football picks and predictions, below.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prediction
The Big 12 is set to produce the most electric race to a conference championship of any league in college football.
With more than half of the teams having a realistic shot of making it to Arlington in early December, two of the most popular preseason picks have started 0-1 in conference play.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1, 0-1 Big 12) hosted Utah in oven-like temperatures in Stillwater in Week 4. However, a defense-dominated game created a comfortable lead for the Utes and gave them an advantage in the conference standings.
Head coach Mike Gundy searched for answers, benching his starting quarterback and abandoning a rushing attack that was projected to dominate the college football landscape.
Kansas State had a similar weekend on the road at BYU, taking a loss in the conference opener thanks to a poor showing in scoring position while allowing the Cougars to dominate field position through special teams.
Head coach Chris Klieman continues to search for answers for the backend of the defense, as opponents continue to rack up points on explosive plays and not methodical drives.
Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan could serve as a knockout game in the Big 12.
Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State were expected to make the conference title game, but an 0-2 start in the standings will all but slam the door on a chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Football
Gundy found success on the Cowboys' second drive against Utah by using tempo. Oklahoma State is the seventh-fastest team in the nation at 21.8 seconds per play.
The drive ended in a field goal before the Pokes went 11 straight possessions without any points. The Oklahoma State offense now sits top-35 in three-and-out rate, ending a possession in three plays on 27% of drives.
The stalled offense called for a benching of quarterback Alan Bowman, as four offensive series went to backup Garret Rangel. Gundy described his quarterback's performance as a snowball effect, from declining throwing mechanics to deteriorating footwork.
The Pokes faithful is ready for 2023 recruit Zane Flores, but Gundy said the Nebraska native "hasn't gotten the number of reps" to take over the position.
There are also struggles in the running game behind college football's oldest offensive line and a former Heisman-contending running back in Ollie Gordon.
The reigning Doak Walker winner is averaging a full yard less after contact, down to 2.7 yards.
Gundy has repeated that teams are loading the box to stop the run game, a factor that has created one-on-one matchups in the passing game with receivers Brennan Presley and De'Zhaun Stribling.
Defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo has found success in two key areas: creating Havoc and keeping opponents out of the end zone.
Oklahoma State ranks 27th in Defensive Havoc, powered thanks to the FBS lead in passes defensed.
A top-15 rank in red-zone defense is even more impressive when considering opponent drives that cross the 40-yard line. The Cowboys have allowed 27 opponent drives into the extended red zone but have given up just 1.7 points per trip for a rank of sixth nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Kansas State Wildcats Football
Klieman noted that the battle of explosive plays and turnovers were the downfall of the Wildcats against BYU. The Cats settled for field goals on drives plagued with penalties, a staple of the offense this season with a rank of 78th in Finishing Drives.
There are other concerns around the offense, as quarterback Avery Johnson has yet to find a groove in downfield passing. The sophomore has completed just 3-of-15 passing attempts beyond 20 yards, leading Kansas State to rank of 121st in pass explosives.
The Wildcats have never been a pass-first offense, but Johnson has failed to keep Kansas State from mistakes with just two big-time throws to five turnover-worthy plays.
The strength of the offense is a heavy rushing attack that pivots between power, inside zone and pulling offensive linemen.
Running back DJ Giddens has been fantastic behind an offensive line that ranks top-20 in Line Yards. Kansas State has used a two-back set on 7% of snaps with Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards, as both he and Giddens average at least 3.8 yards after first contact.
The issues for the offense start in passing downs, with a Success Rate and EPA number that sits in the bottom half of FBS offenses. Despite the seventh-best national average distance on third-down distance at 5.6 yards to go, the Wildcats are 61st in conversions.
Joe Klanderman's 3-3-5 defense has had success in stopping the run against four opponents so far this season. Kansas State veers to a 6-3-2 personnel in known rushing attempts, an identity that will continue against Oklahoma State's rushing attack.
The Wildcats are top-15 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate but have similar issues to the offense in passing downs.
Kansas State has failed to produce a pass rush nor limit opponent explosive passes. The secondary grades poorly in coverage, per PFF, while Sports Info Solutions has the Wildcats ranking 68th in contested catches allowed.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Pick
Like many quarterbacks facing the Utah defense, Bowman was uncomfortable against the looks he saw from the opposing secondary in Week 4.
The quarterback said the issues started with a Utah secondary that flashed Cover 1, a look that Oklahoma State did not expect or practice against leading up to the loss against Utah. That experience should play out against Kansas State, as Klanderman calls 61% zone coverage with a split tendency to quarters and Cover 1.
Because opposing defenses are loading the box against Gordon, Bowman has had success in play-action passing. The seventh-year quarterback is 31-of-46 in play-action, with 20 of the completions going for a first down.
Klanderman is sure to pivot to a 6-3-2 front with all eyes on Gordon, giving Bowman one-on-one coverage with two of the most explosive receivers in the Big 12.
There may also be other advantages that allow Gordon to get it going on the ground. The Kansas State defense has thrived against outside zone read, but Oklahoma State runs man, power and counter with minimal zone read.
The Cowboys defense has already experienced a mobile quarterback in Week 2 against Arkansas and Taylen Green. Gundy mentioned that losing sight of running lanes for the quarterback has cost the Oklahoma State defense in several games thus far.
Utah backup quarterback Isaac Wilson ripped a 48-yard gain on the ground because of poor tackling angles by the Cowboys defense. That has been the emphasis in practice this week with plenty of tape on Johnson and experience against Green.
Kansas State has consistently struggled in passing downs on both sides of the ball. While the offense has failed to produce any depth in the passing game, opposing teams are eating against the Wildcats' secondary.
Look for Oklahoma State to see massive improvement from a Week 4 loss thanks to Bowman's experience against Cover 1 and a rushing attack that could see a lighter box for the first time this season.
Pick: Oklahoma State +4.5 or Better
| | |
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Prediction
The Southwest Classic is the rivalry between Texas A&M (3-1, 1-0 SEC) and Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1, 1-0), which dates back to Halloween 1903.
The Razorbacks lead the series, 42-35-3, with the bulk of the games coming from decades of conference games in the Southwest Conference. Each program has a nine-game win streak in the series, the latest coming from the Aggies from 2012-20.
This will be the last time the teams meet at the neutral site of AT&T Stadium in Arlington as this rivalry is set to return to home stadiums, starting in Fayetteville in 2025.
Arkansas is on the fast track to eclipse its season win total of 4.5, as it's already 3-1 under head coach Sam Pittman. Changes at offensive coordinator and quarterback have had positive results through the first trimester of the season.
However, this is one of the most volatile teams in the nation. The Hogs own a victory over Auburn but had a postgame win expectancy of just 6% in that game. They also lost to Oklahoma State despite an 86% postgame win expectancy.
Texas A&M has already had enough storylines to encompass an entire season, as the new coaching staff suffered defeat in the season opener against Notre Dame. After a victory over McNeese State, the Aggies went into The Swamp and manhandled Florida with a first-time starter at quarterback.
With two healthy quarterbacks for head coach Mike Elko, Texas A&M will have enough versatility to throw at the Razorbacks defense.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football
Arkansas has plenty of indigestion about traveling down to the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, as the Razorbacks have lost 11-of-12 games against the Aggies on the home field of the Dallas Cowboys.
Although the result at Auburn was a victory, the box score painted a completely different picture. The Tigers averaged more than 7.1 yards per play, well ahead of the Razorbacks four yards per play.
The passing attack was pitiful, falling below half of the national average Success Rate at 47%.
The saving grace in the road victory at Auburn was the wheels of quarterback Taylen Green.
WHAT A BEAUTY pic.twitter.com/rQPht6GcUa
— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) September 21, 2024
The junior transfer has increased his rushing output game over game, logging a season-high 17 rushing attempts against Auburn. Green has at least 15 rushing attempts in the box score over the past three games, more than any other game in two years as a starter at Boise State.
Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has the proper quarterback to run his system, as moving pockets and bootleg attempts have helped create 30 play-action dropbacks.
Green has completed nearly twice as many big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays, a great complement to one of the best running backs in the nation in Ja'Quinden Jackson.
The Utah transfer has been a workhorse for the Hogs, generating eight touchdowns and an elusive 4.3 yards after first contact. Jackson has earned those yards and propelled the Hogs to a rank of 10th in Rushing Success Rate, as the offensive line is purely responsible for sagging numbers in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Another issue persisting in Petrino's offense is the ability to score touchdowns in scoring opportunities. The Razorbacks opened the season with 10 touchdowns in 10 offensive possessions, but in three subsequent games, the offense has averaged just 2.9 points on possessions crossing the opponent's 40-yard line.
The defense continues to deal with ineffectiveness and injury. Cornerback Jaylon Braxton and safety Hudson Clark missed the Auburn game, but both are listed on the depth chart for Texas A&M. The Razorbacks have produced pass rush, coverage and tackling grades all outside the top 100.
The secondary has been the Havoc lifeblood for defensive coordinator Travis Williams' aggressive 4-2-5 defense. Nickel Doneiko Slaughter and safeties TJ Metcalf and Jayden Johnson have supplied 10 passes defensed so far this season.
That’s a pick nine times out of nine for @jj4x_ 🤫 pic.twitter.com/mcpmapsmfw
— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) September 24, 2024
Texas A&M Aggies Football
Offensive coordinator Collin Klein may have two different game plans for Texas A&M leading up to kickoff.
Elko announced original starting quarterback Conner Weigman will be a game-time decision based on health. The sophomore is dealing with an AC joint sprain suffered against Notre Dame. He left the McNeese game early and didn't dress in Week 4 against Bowling Green.
Weigman provides Texas A&M with a pro-style quarterback who can execute from the pocket. Without Weigman, the Aggies are expected to continue a dependency on freshman Marcel Reed.
Still thinking about this Marcel Reed juke 😳 @AggieFootballpic.twitter.com/zu6p9lS1Zp
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 16, 2024
Reed has produced 118 yards on designed runs and another 100 yards from scrambles. While the numbers are rising offensively for the Aggies, the most important statistic may come in Havoc Allowed. Texas A&M ranks as the most disciplined offense in the nation, as Reed has yet to throw an interception or fumble the ball.
The Aggies' offensive line has allowed just eight tackles for loss through four games.
Like the Razorbacks, Texas A&M has also struggled in scoring position with a rank of 88th in offensive finishing drives.
Another similarity to the Hogs comes in the struggle to generate a pass rush and coverage grading, both of which are outside the top 100, per PFF.
Elko's nickel defense pivots between Cover 1 and Cover 3 but has allowed one of the highest amounts of explosives in standard downs to teams that pass the ball.
The Aggies should provide a stiff test against the Razorbacks' rushing attack thanks to a top-20 rank in both Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Pick
The similarities between the two teams are striking from an analytics standpoint.
Both Texas A&M and Arkansas have similar strength of schedules and strength of records. Neither defense has produced a pass rush or graded highly in coverage. Each offense has had success running the ball, and if Reed starts for Texas A&M, there will be two mobile quarterbacks capable of creating missed tackles.
Both defenses also rank among the top 30 in opponent third-down conversions, while each offense has struggled to come through with touchdowns in scoring position.
If there's an avenue for points, the recent play of the defenses could lead to easy scores. After a sloppy defensive performance against UAB with 11 missed tackles, Arkansas missed 14 tackles and was dominated by the Auburn offense.
The Tigers generated four explosive drives, defined as a possession that averaged at least 10 yards per play. While the Hogs have a Havoc-minded defense, the secondary ranks 128th in creating contested catches.
Texas A&M has a different set of struggles on defense, ranking 74th in Opponent Pass EPA. Explosive plays in early downs have been an issue, as Arkansas ranks ninth in passing attempts on first down with 68 through four games.
A 61% conversion rate on third downs has Petrino's offense ranked second in FBS, behind only Miami.
With both offenses in the top 40 in Quality Drives and featuring mobile quarterbacks against lackluster pass rushes, scoring opportunities should be abundant.
Pick: Over 52.5 or Better
| | |
Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction
The long-running commentary on Kirby Smart's tenure at Georgia is that he has recreated the "Death Star" that is Alabama football.
Coming straight from a role as the defensive coordinator, Smart inherited a Georgia program treading water in the SEC East. The Bulldogs have since won two national titles and created one of the longest winning streaks in recent college football history.
Not only was the "Death Star" rebuilt, but Georgia has since been called Alabama 2.0 despite owning a record of 1-5 against former Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban since 2017.
Alabama is under new management, as the Crimson Tide were quick to pull Kalen DeBoer after of a national title game appearance with the Washington Huskies.
DeBoer is best known for developing one of the most innovative offenses from a Success Rate and Expected Points Added perspective.
Georgia enters as a -2 favorite on the spread with the over/under sitting at 48.5.
Georgia Bulldogs Football
Smart entered the bye week in a perfect position to motivate the Bulldogs, coming off a one-point victory over Kentucky with Texas becoming the new No. 1 in the AP Poll.
Health has also played a factor on both sides of the ball, starting with the running backs against Clemson.
Tate Ratledge was also considered one of the best offensive linemen in the nation before leaving the second quarter of the Kentucky game with a sprained left ankle.
The All-American will miss a handful of games, as replacement Micah Morris is expected to play snaps at right guard. Morris was exceptional in pass-block grading, but creating open lanes for the rushing attack was the primary reason the Wildcats nearly upset Georgia.
The offensive line and running back stable have failed to produce any metric inside the top 60 through a quarter of the season.
Although Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier average at least 3.7 yards after contact, the Bulldogs sit outside the top 60 in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The trench has been elite in protecting quarterback Carson Beck, who has produced just a single turnover-worthy play compared to seven touchdowns this season.
Carson Beck 🎯 pic.twitter.com/u7sgPMblkd
— Speak Up (@_SpeakU) September 19, 2024
However, Beck has struggled to create big-time throws, leaving a stable of targets to do the heavy lifting in moving the chains for offensive coordinator Mike Bobo.
Slot Dominic Lovett and wideout Arian Smith lead in targets and yards per route run, while Miami transfer Colbie Young paces all targets with two receiving touchdowns.
Beck's lack of big-time throws shines through when it comes to Georgia's number in on-target analytics. The Bulldogs signal-caller ranks 116th in hitting targets in stride.
There could be positive news from a health standpoint on the defensive side of the ball. Considered the best player on defense, Mykel Williams suffered an ankle injury in the season opener against Clemson but has been practicing this week after missing two games.
Smart noted that he has taken light reps, but his timeline remains unknown.
Other possible returns on the defensive interior include Jordan Hall, who has not played this season thanks to a stress fracture in both legs. Meanwhile, Warren Brinson logged three snaps against Clemson and should be available after two straight weeks of practice.
The numbers against the pass have been much more productive for the defense. Georgia ranks top-10 in allowing pass explosives and Opponent Passing Success Rate.
While the Havoc and trench numbers have sagged against a strength of schedule that sits at 43rd, the Bulldogs continue to be elite in Passing Downs Success Rate. The secondary hasn't logged an abundance of pass breakups, but the Dawgs still rank 11th in contested catches allowed.
Alabama Crimson Tide Football
DeBoer was adamant in his Wednesday press conference that putting the ball in the end zone is the key to the offense against Georgia. The new Alabama head coach has done a fine job of cashing in on scoring opportunities thus far, averaging 5.6 points on 20 possessions crossing the opponent's 40-yard line.
Like most teams looking to find continuity in the trench, the Crimson Tide struggled with the offensive line through the first two games.
Injury, position swapping and pure inefficiency drove down rush- and pass-blocking numbers. However, the return of Kadyn Proctor to left tackle gave Alabama a heavy advantage in the trench in a rout of Wisconsin.
Alabama LT Kadyn Proctor (#74) was literally surfing on the defender at the end 😂 pic.twitter.com/lMgeHdcXK4
— Ryan Roberts (@RiseNDraft) September 15, 2024
Quarterback Jalen Milroe has been near flawless through three games, recording the only turnover-worthy play of the season in the opener against Western Kentucky. The junior is still perfect on passes over 20 yards, continuing a mistake-free season from 2023.
The biggest knock on the Crimson Tide signal-caller has been mid-range passing — an important aspect against Georgia's expected quarters coverage package. With only seven passing attempts between 10 and 19 yards, it's still to be determined if Milroe has improved on shorter routes.
DeBoer has a highly explosive passing attack when Milroe is protected, as the top four targets easily eclipse more than two yards per route run. Kobe Prentice, Caleb Odom and Germie Bernard have combined for 26 targets and a couple of touchdowns thus far.
But the real story out of Tuscaloosa is the emergence of 17-year-old Ryan Williams, who hauled in four touchdowns from Milroe and led Alabama to the 16th-most explosive passing attack in the nation.
Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack has kept the Crimson Tide stiff on defense. Alabama ranks top-10 in numerous categories against opponent rush and pass attempts.
Opposing offenses have failed to create explosives or move the chains, as the Crimson Tide defense has one of the lowest rates of standard downs attempts in FBS.
Edge LT Overton has doubled every other defensive player's total in creating pressures, while Keon Sabb and Malachi Moore have two pass breakups apiece from the safety position.
The problem comes in the strength of opposing offenses. South Florida, Western Kentucky and Wisconsin all reside outside the top 60 of SP+ offensive ranks.
Georgia vs. Alabama Pick
The battle between Georgia and Alabama will be decided in one critical area of the field: the trenches.
Both teams have issues in producing a successful rushing attack, with each using a heavy amount of inside zone that has not been supported by the offensive lines.
However, that changed for a healthy Alabama trench against Wisconsin. The Crimson Tide produced a 59% Success Rate in 32 rushing attempts with an average of 5.9 yards per play.
Georgia's rout of Clemson in the season opener came via air assault, as the Bulldogs posted just two rushing attempts over 20 yards against the Tigers.
There are heavy advantages against the run on the Alabama side, thanks to a combined 26 stops from linebackers Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell. In particular, Lawson ranks as the 13th-best individual defender in college football in terms of defensive rush grading, while Georgia doesn't have a single player in the top 200, per PFF.
These numbers could improve for the Bulldogs defense, but keep tabs on Williams and the health of other defensive line players.
Another key to victory for Alabama is defending the slot, as Lovett leads the Bulldogs in targets while supporting a healthy 2.3 yards per route run.
However, the Dawgs may struggle to hit the slot based on the Crimson Tide's personnel. Alabama fields three of the top 200 individual defensive players who have played at least 40 coverage snaps in the slot in Moore, Sabb and DeVonta Smith.
When handicapping the game from the trench outward, Alabama holds advantages in statistics, health and recent form. That dynamic could become more balanced if Georgia is healthy in the defensive front seven.
Considering the Tide have been elite in defending the slot, Beck will be forced to rely on outside weapons or a stable of running backs catching balls behind the line of scrimmage.
The winner of the interior will win the battle between Georgia and Alabama, and the Crimson Tide hold the advantage heading up to the game of the year in college football.
Pick: Alabama +2 or Better
