Welcome to Week 5 of the 2024 college football season.
We have plenty of interesting favorites worth backing on the board this week, and we're diving in with Iowa State laying just over two touchdowns against Houston and Penn State in a great spot against Illinois.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article.
Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast. We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Let's dive into our Week 5 college football predictions and favorite NCAAF favorites for Saturday, Sept. 28.
Collin Wilson: Iowa State -15.5 vs. Houston
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
I'm going to go with Iowa State as my overdog. The Cyclones are hammering teams not named Iowa.
They posted a 50-burger against Arkansas State last week, but I wonder how much of that bye week was actually spent preparing for Houston as it transitions into conference play. Considering they had a bye week before Arkansas State, I can't imagine they spent two weeks on the Red Wolves.
The weakness for Iowa State comes up front in pass blocking. Quarterback Rocco Becht has been pressured 17 times over the last two games against Arkansas State and Iowa. However, Houston ranks just 130th in generating a pass rush.
The Cougars simply can't expose the Cyclones' weakness.
On the other side, the only avenue for success against Iowa State is on the ground. Well, Re'Shaun Sanford II has already fumbled twice, and Stacy Sneed — their second-leading running back — averages just 2.1 yards after contact. They just don't have any juice or elusiveness.
When Houston decides to pass, it's going to go up against a secondary that's top-20 nationally in creating contested catches. Nobody's getting a clean look against Iowa State's 3-3-5 defense.
Plus, Houston's offense ranks 127th in Finishing Drives, so it's not going to put the ball in the end zone often even if it inches into Iowa State territory.
While I make this number Iowa State -14 — in line with the market — I don't see a path for Houston to score here. In the Cougars' 12 that have crossed their opponent's 40-yard line — yes, only 12 drives — they're averaging 2.8 points per trip.
Houston ranks 131st in red-zone offense, and I don't think that unit has enough options to score. Give me the Cyclones.
Stuckey: Penn State -17.5 vs. Illinois
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | +720 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 47.5 -115o / -105u | -1200 |
This is setting up as a Penn State home blowout.
Illinois could easily be 2-2 on the season, and if that were the case, this line would likely be 20-plus.
The Illini were outplayed by Kansas — which hasn't looked great in other games — but benefited from a game-changing pick-six at the end of the first half. Even with that defensive score and a +3 turnover margin, they still had to come from behind in the fourth quarter at home.
They also faced a fourth-quarter deficit at Nebraska in a coin-flip game before ultimately winning in overtime. That game also featured a game-changing interception — this time on an incredible play in the end zone that took a Cornhusker touchdown off the board.
The Illini also didn't look too hot at home against Central Michigan for most of that game despite pulling it out by 21 thanks to a 60-yard field goal and a late touchdown after a failed Chippewa onside kick attempt.
While a bit fortunate overall (+7 turnover margin), Illinois is definitely better than I had anticipated.
Luke Altmyer has played much better this season despite getting a bit lucky with a 10:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 4:4 Big-Time Throw-to-Turnover-Worthy Play ratio.
However, he has benefited immensely from the late addition of transfer Zakhari Franklin, who gives Illinois a dynamic duo on the outside with him and Pat Bryant.
Those two have been responsible for most of the offense through the air in the RPO-heavy offense since the Illini have struggled to get the ground game going despite a talented crop of backs.
That's in large part due to struggles in the run-blocking department. I don't see that changing this week against the Penn State front.
Do I trust Altmyer to keep it going in Happy Valley on a Saturday night against a Penn State secondary that should be at full strength this weekend? Not really. I expect a critical mistake or two.
Keep in mind that Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki saw this Illinois defense last year when Kansas amassed 539 total yards of offense in a game it led by 21 in the fourth quarter.
For what it's worth, favorites of 17-plus in a matchup of two ranked teams have gone 40-23 ATS (63.5%) since 2005, covering by an average of just under five points per game. That includes a mark of 11-3 ATS when the underdog is undefeated like Illinois.
Plus, including the postseason, James Franklin is a silly 71-43 ATS (62.3%) as a favorite, covering by over four points per game. That includes an ATS record of 43-24-2 (64.2%) when laying double-digits.
