Week 6 of the college football season rolls on with a big afternoon slate.
Our NCAAF writers came through with seven — that's right, seven — best bets for the afternoon kickoff window, including two picks for Virginia Tech vs. Stanford, two predictions for Indiana vs. Northwestern, as well as bets for Iowa vs. Ohio State, East Carolina vs. Charlotte and West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State.
So, whether you're looking to back one of the nation's top teams in Columbus or fade two offenses in Stillwater, we have you covered this afternoon.
Continue reading for all seven of our Week 6 college football best bets for Saturday afternoon — and be sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday's noon and evening kickoff windows.
Week 6 College Football Best Bets: Saturday Afternoon Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday afternoon's slate of NCAAF games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Iowa vs. Ohio State Best Bet
We’ve made it to the month of October, and somehow Ohio State has yet to face a legitimate opponent. That finally changes here, despite Iowa having not beaten the Buckeyes since 1991.
While Iowa is a significant step up in competition for Ohio State, I expect the result to be much of the same for a Buckeyes team that’s beaten its first four opponents by an average of 42 points.
The Ohio State defense has only one real challenge it must accomplish in order to cover the spread: stopping Kaleb Johnson. The Iowa running back is second in the nation, averaging 171.3 yards rushing per game, and he’s accounted for nine of Iowa’s 15 offensive touchdowns.
The Buckeyes’ defense has yet to face a legitimate rushing attack, but it’s done its part against inferior competition. Ohio State is third nationally in rushing defense and has surrendered just a lone rushing score.
And while the Iowa offense is improved this season, it has very little to do with quarterback Cade McNamara, who passed for 99 and 62 yards against the two Power Four teams the Hawkeyes have played.
The Buckeyes will be able to devote nearly the entirety of their attention to stopping Johnson.
Then you have the Ohio State offense, which hasn’t skipped a beat. The Buckeyes are third nationally in scoring and rank inside the top 10 in pass success, line yards, Havoc and finishing drives.
Furthermore, Iowa’s defense is good, but not quite as good as usual. The Hawkeyes’ pass defense has been fairly susceptible to explosive plays, with only two Big Ten teams allowing more 30-plus yard passes than Iowa.
Ohio State hasn’t needed to hit many home run passes this year, but it certainly has the firepower to do so.
I see the Buckeyes getting up early, forcing Iowa to run more of the offense through McNamara than Johnson. The Hawkeyes will struggle to find points while Ohio State runs away with this.
Pick: Ohio State -18 (Play to -19.5)
Virginia Tech vs. Stanford Best Bet
Virginia Tech will make the cross-country journey to face the Stanford Cardinal on their home turf in Palo Alto, California.
After suffering a soul-crushing loss to Miami (FL) last Friday night, the Hokies will look to regroup. However, they face a tall order after a massive letdown coupled with a long trip.
I think this presents an excellent opportunity to back Stanford for a variety of reasons, especially as the Cardinal offer more than eight points.
Now, maybe Virginia Tech will come out extremely motivated, but I think that’s unlikely since it’s been one of if not the most disappointing teams in the nation this season.
Coming into the season, Virginia Tech was a dark-horse favorite to make the newly-expanded 12-team College Football Playoff and was thought of as a legitimate contender to win the ACC Championship.
As we enter Week 6, Virginia Tech has a losing record, and things seem to be getting out of hand for head coach Brent Pry and the Hokies.
If this game were at home, I would more heavily weigh the probability of a bounce back game, but the Hokies are on the road for the second time in as many weeks and will be making its first west coast swing as a part of the recently-expanded ACC.
Virginia Tech has become notorious for slow starts this season, and I think that bodes well for Stanford backers in this matchup.
Where I see an edge in this game is the Stanford rush defense against the Virginia Tech offense. The Hokies have been reliant on the run this season, but they’ll be met by the eighth-ranked Stanford rush defense.
This should further compound a slow start and help offset the suspect Stanford passing defense.
Our Action Network PRO Projections model forecasts fair value for this game to be seven points, and this hasn’t been lost on professional bettors who’ve been hammering the Cardinal north of the key number that our model projects.
I recommend backing Stanford at seven points or better, as the emotionally-crushed Hokies will struggle to salvage what’s left of this season.
Pick: Stanford +8.5 (Play to +7)
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Virginia Tech vs. Stanford Best Bet
By John Feltman
The ground attack was impactful for the Stanford offense last week, which is encouraging heading into this matchup against the Hokies.
The Hokies run a base, 4-3 type defense, which relies heavily on a solid pass rush. Running the football can slow down those pass rushers, so I expect Ashton Daniels to use his legs as much as possible.
Given that he's been a turnover machine, there will be an incentive to limit the number of overall drop backs.
Defensively, I love what the Cardinal have done in the trenches. They enter the matchup only allowing 2.2 line yards per rush, which is impressive.
They’re also second in the nation in defensive stuff rate, currently at 34%. The run defense has done an excellent job thus far, despite allowing five YPC last week.
Their defensive front has an issue; they still need to generate sacks. However, Bobby April III's 4-2-5 defense should have plenty of opportunities to generate pressure against a Hokies offense that’s allowed a lot of Havoc from opposing offenses.
The secondary has questions, but CB Collin Wright is arguably the best player on this experienced defense and is only allowing 6.4 yards per catch.
They're 37th in PFF tackling, and the special teams have been excellent thus far.
It's a terrific spot for Stanford at home, as the Hokies are essentially in a freefall after brutal losses back-to-back weeks.
The Hokies were supposed to be an ACC threat before the season, but now they find themselves at 2-3.
There are only so many other ways to lose a more demoralizing game than last week, and it's a tough travel spot. They have a massive game against Boston College next Thursday, so they'll be on another short week after a long cross-country trip.
They may be unable to run the ball that effectively, and these pass rushers are due to break out for Stanford.
Daniels needs to limit the turnovers, but his legs should play a significant factor here.
Stanford is among the best situational spots of the week, so I’ll take advantage of that and grab the points. I realize Stanford has Notre Dame next week, but the situation is far more impactful for the Hokies.
Pick: Stanford +8.5 (Play to +7)
Indiana vs. Northwestern Best Bet
Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers have been rolling this year, with a 4-0 overall record and a 4-0 against-the-spread record.
The Hoosiers should continue to roll, as I still don’t believe the models have adjusted to how good this team has been.
This Hoosiers’ offense has been averaging nearly 49 points per game this season. They’ll be able to put up points in this one.
The key matchup that will dictate the outcome in this one is Indiana’s passing attack, which ranks first in success rate against Northwestern’s struggling pass defense, which ranks 97th in the nation.
I think the Hoosiers can find some success on the ground as well, but this could be the most physical team they’ve played on the year to date. (Northwestern does rank 22nd against the run.)
Despite the problems the Hoosiers may face running the ball, their defense should swallow up the Northwestern attack led by a combination of Mike Wright and Jack Lausch.
Combined those two players have more interceptions than touchdown passes.
The Northwestern offense is flat out not good; it ranks 82nd in success rate and 108th in offensive explosiveness. The Hoosiers defense ranks 13th success rate and eighth in defensive explosiveness, so I expect Indiana to hold its own against the Wildcats.
I expect the Hoosiers to make stops defensively consistently to help them dominate the field position aspect in this one, and I’m backing the significantly better offense to get a blowout win on the road in Evanston and cover.
Give me the Hoosiers -13.5.
Pick: Indiana -13.5 (Play to -15)
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Indiana vs. Northwestern Best Bet
By Greg Waddell
Indiana’s offense has been the biggest surprise in the sport through five weeks, as Curt Cignetti has injected life into a program that hasn’t seen this level of football since Michael Penix Jr. was a Hoosier.
Quarterback Kurtis Rourke and their stellar receiver room has been the biggest reason. Rourke and Cignetti have been a match made in heaven, and together they’ve become the top-ranked passing offense in all of college football (the Hoosiers are first nationally in pass success rate).
Northwestern has been miserable defensively, ranking 114th against the pass and just 93rd against the run.
While the Wildcats’ offense isn’t anything to get excited about either, they always have chances. Last week against Washington, Northwestern was stuffed at the goal line, leaving seven points on the board.
This game will be played on the better team’s terms. While Northwestern will want to control the ball, run the clock and sustain drives, that’ll be easier said than done against the undefeated Hoosiers.
Indiana wants a high-scoring, exciting game, and much like its first five opponents, there will be nothing Northwestern can do to stop it.
Indiana has gone over 41.5 points with just its own offense in four consecutive weeks. I like the Hoosiers to do that again here, but it becomes even easier if Northwestern just finds the end zone once.
Pick: Over 41 (Play to 44.5)
East Carolina vs. Charlotte Best Bet
By Cody Goggin
East Carolina is 3-2 to start the season, with its most recent win coming over UTSA at home. The Pirates will now travel west to take on an in-state rival, the Charlotte 49ers.
ECU ranks 62nd in offensive success rate this season and has gotten most of its production through the air, where it ranks 31st in success rate.
Turnovers have been a problem for this offense, as Jake Garcia leads FBS with 11 interceptions, which has led to a ranking of just 86th in passing PPA.
The East Carolina defense has been strong, particularly against the run. The Pirates rank 22nd in defensive success rate, 31st in finishing drives and 18th in Havoc rate.
Against the run, they’re seventh in rushing success rate allowed, fifth in rushing PPA allowed and sixth in rushing explosiveness allowed.
This defense ranks seventh in PFF run defense grade, eighth in coverage grade and 51st in pass rush grade, as it’s been a pretty strong unit.
Overall, the Pirates rank fourth in PFF’s defense grades.
Charlotte is 2-3 on the season, with both of its wins coming by just one point against Rice and Gardner-Webb.
Charlotte ranks 125th in offensive success rate, 104th in finishing drives and 122nd in Havoc allowed. It’s also 131st in rushing success rate, 124th in rushing PPA, 105th in passing success rate and 122nd in passing PPA this year.
The 49ers are also just 103rd in PFF run blocking grade, which will be an issue against this good East Carolina front.
Defensively, the 49ers have been OK, ranking 61st in success rate allowed and 77th in finishing drives (but 125th in explosiveness allowed).
This explosiveness has come from their passing defense, which ranks last in FBS in explosiveness allowed and 117th in passing PPA allowed, despite ranking 57th in passing success rate allowed.
I think that East Carolina is the much better team in this matchup, and it’ll be powered by its impressive defense.
Charlotte has had few answers on offense, and I don’t see this unit being able to put up much of a fight.
On the other side, East Carolina’s offense isn’t great, but I do think that it can be okay if it curbs its turnover issues.
I’m going to count on that happening in this matchup and lay eight points with the Pirates on the road, as I think they’ll be able to win this game by double digits.
Pick: East Carolina -8 (Play to -9.5)
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West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State Best Bet
By Doug Ziefel
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have gotten off to a rough start in conference play. They've lost two straight and face a West Virginia team that could give them some issues.
Oklahoma State has had issues stopping the run (it ranks 110th in yards per rush allowed), and the Mountaineers are primed to exploit that with multiple ball carriers.
West Virginia's rushing attack will shorten this game, as the Mountaineers will be able to move the ball methodically down the field.
Their drives will take time off the clock and lessen the impact of any quick scores Oklahoma State generates through the passing game.
However, Oklahoma State's offensive success isn’t guaranteed in this matchup. The Cowboys are a team that should be riding running back Ollie Gordon II, but he and the offensive line have struggled, leading it to rank 101st in yards per rush.
Thankfully, Alan Bowman has picked up the slack through the air, but if the Mountaineers keep him on the sideline, it won't matter how effective he is against a weak West Virginia secondary.
This total has moved down a full point since opening, and that's because the game script has become evident.
If the Mountaineers get their run game going, this game should stay well under the total.
Pick: Under 64.5 (Play to 61.5)
