Week 6 College Football Picks, Havoc Rankings: Why to Bet Oregon vs. Michigan State

Havoc is the great equalizer for defenses in college football, with Virginia Tech and Miami serving as the latest example.

Miami quarterback Cam Ward has a lengthy history with mistakes in previous stops at Incarnate Word and Washington State, bringing 30 interceptions and 46 fumbles to Coral Gables.

Ward had played with the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of his career until the Hurricanes hosted the Hokies in one of the wildest finishes of the season like Friday.

Virginia Tech forced Ward into two interceptions and a lost fumble. The Hokies started drives inside Miami's 35-yard line twice, gashing a Hurricanes defense playing on its heels.

The turnovers were just the start for the Hurricanes offense, as Virginia Tech’s defense also produced five tackles for loss on the evening.

My Havoc Rankings have been updated after Week 5, crowning a new leader in the categories of Defensive Havoc and Offensive Havoc Allowed.

Tennessee takes the top spot on the defensive side, producing a Havoc play on 25% of snaps.

Navy comes in as the most disciplined offense in the nation from a Havoc Allowed perspective. The Midshipmen have allowed just eight tackles for loss with a single fumble in 238 offensive snaps this season.

There are a number of variables that build our Havoc Rankings. Tackles for loss, interceptions, pass breakups and fumbles are a few of the data points used against the total number of plays on the offensive and defensive side. The best offenses in FBS rarely allow a quarterback to be pressured, while defenses can turn the field position around on any given snap.

Here's a look at our updated Havoc Rankings for Week 6, including each head-to-head game.

Michigan State vs. Oregon

Michigan State: 119th in Havoc Allowed · Oregon: 4th in Havoc

Despite leading Oregon State to a high level of success over the past two seasons, head coach Jonathan Smith struggled to be competitive in the in-state rivalry against Oregon head coach Dan Lanning.

Oregon beat Oregon State, 31-7, last November, winning all three Eugene battles since Smith took the Beavers' head coach position in 2018. Smith took the Michigan State job over the offseason, but disadvantages in Havoc could provide an unfriendly return to Autzen Stadium.

Oregon cranked up the heat on UCLA in Week 5, producing seven tackles for loss and four passes defensed. The Ducks rank third nationally in passes defended — a combination of interceptions and pass breakups.

Oregon is one of the highest-ranked teams nationally in creating contested catches, averaging eight passes defensed per game.

Cornerback Jabbar Muhammad has been critical to the success of the Ducks defense, producing the most forced incompletions on the team.

Eugene should see a defensive swarm around Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles. The sophomore has generated nine interceptions and 14 turnover-worthy plays in just 136 passing attempts this season.

Chiles' turnover-worthy play rate of 8.6% jumps to 13.5% with pressure, as he has thrown six interceptions on 35 passing attempts in a crowded pocket.

The Spartans offense has been incapable of cashing in on scoring opportunities this season, ranking 126th in Finishing Drives. In 28 possessions crossing the opponent 40-yard line, Michigan State averages just 2.9 points per trip.

Oregon has left little doubt in the previous two victories against Oregon State and UCLA, producing a 100% post-game win expectancy.

The Ducks are expected to roll behind a methodical defense that's top 25 in Standard Downs and Passing Downs Success Rate. With a projection of Oregon -27, there's still room to run on the current market offering.

Pick: Oregon -24 (Play to -27)