It's time to get into Week 6 of the college football season.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article.
Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast. We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
There are plenty of intriguing favorites on the board this week.
I'm rolling with Penn State over UCLA in the Big Ten, while Collin Wilson will take the Pac-12's Oregon State over the Mountain West's Colorado State.
Let's take a look at our Week 6 college football picks and favorite NCAAF favorites for Saturday, Oct. 5.
Stuckey: Penn State -27.5 vs. UCLA
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +2000 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
I'm going with Penn State -27.5 here.
The Nittany Lions burned me last week, but they had three drives inside the 25 that ended in no points.
They absolutely dominated Illinois in that game. From a net Success Rate perspective, it was one of the most lopsided games in all of college football last weekend.
How is UCLA going to score here?
Quarterback Ethan Garbers will try to play despite an injury, but the offensive line is horrid. The Bruins won't be able to protect Garbers or run the ball in this game.
Plus UCLA has a brutal travel schedule. The Bruins went to the island and barely beat Hawaii, then they got destroyed at home by Indiana before making the trip to Baton Rouge to lose to LSU. With a home game against Oregon after that followed by this trip to Penn State, this is a tough spot that sets up for a Nittany Lions blowout.
My one fear is Penn State. The Nittany Lions aren't fast, and they do have USC on deck. However, Franklin has generally been very good in these spots.
I think this line should be closer to 30, so give me Penn State with a number under four touchdowns.
Collin Wilson: Oregon State -11 vs. Colorado State
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
We'll go with Oregon State here for my overdog. I project this game at 17, and I think it has room to run.
The Beavers are coming off a bye week. and will be taking on a Colorado State team that's just lifeless without star wide receiver Tory Horton. He's paramount to every game the Rams plays in. He's questionable right now, but even if he does play, he won't be at full health.
Plus, he'll have to deal with Oregon State cornerbacks Jaden Robinson, Andre Jordan and Kobe Singleton, who will do whatever they have to do to jump all over Horton in Cover 1 and Cover 3.
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has also been nothing like he's been in seasons past, and now he's down Justus Ross-Simmons (transferred to Syracuse) and maybe Horton, which would take all of his weapons away.
His average depth of target is nearly two yards lower than last year, and he has twice as many interceptions as touchdowns.
Oregon State plays more Cover 1 than anybody, and if you look at Fowler-Nicolosi's record against Cover 1, the negative plays skyrocket. In fact, he holds a negative EPA at 0.4 yards per pass against Cover 1.
On the other side, Colorado State simply can't defend Oregon State's ground game.
So, give me the Beavers here at -11, and I'd take them all the way to -14.
