Let's dive into our favorite college football favorites to bet in Week 7.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
As usual, there are plenty of intriguing favorites on the board this week.
I'm rolling with Iowa in a good spot at home over Washington, while Collin keeps it in the Big Ten with Illinois over former division foe Purdue.
Let's take a look at our Week 7 college football predictions and favorite NCAAF favorites for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Stuckey: Iowa -2.5 vs. Washington
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
This is a brutal situational spot for Washington, which will make another trip out east after coming back home following a trip out to Rutgers on a short week. Not only that, but this game will kick at 10 a.m. local time for the Huskies, who will be coming off an emotional victory over Michigan to exact National Championship revenge.
I backed Washington in that matchup, but that had more to do with how bad I think the Wolverines are this year.
It feels odd to say out loud, but Iowa has a more respectable passing attack than Michigan.
As a result, Washington can't solely focus on taking away the Hawkeye rushing attack, as Cade McNamara should be able to do just enough in the short passing attack to keep the Huskie defense honest.
That should open up opportunities for Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson to hit some explosive runs and exploit a Washington run defense that ranks below the national average in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush.
I also trust Iowa to win on the margins across the board, especially in terms of penalties and special teams. That's basically how Kirk Ferentz's teams have won games for decades against teams in their same weight class.
On the season, Washington ranks outside the top 100 in penalty yards per game (70.7), while Iowa ranks No. 1 overall at over 50 yards less on a per-game basis.
And if you go by SP+ rankings from a special teams perspective, Washington sits at No. 130, while Iowa finds itself in the top 25 as usual. Not only do the Huskies have major field goal issues — Grady Gross has made just 9-of-15 attempts — but they also have punting problems.
Expect Iowa to win the field-position battle and hit enough big runs with Johnson to come away with a typical ugly Iowa home victory.
For what it's worth, Kirk Ferentz is 15-5-1 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of less than a touchdown following a loss, covering by just under eight points per game on average.
Collin Wilson: Illinois -21.5 vs. Purdue
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -110 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | +1200 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -110 | 47.5 -105o / -115u | -3000 |
This is a revenge game for Illinois head coach Bret Bielema.
Bielema lost this game, 44-19, to his former defensive coordinator, Ryan Walters, a season ago. There's an axe to grind here all the way.
Purdue will have no answers for Illinois quarterback Luke Altmeier, who has been great with an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
On the other sideline, Purdue has gone in the tank on both sides of the ball after they fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. Just take a look at the Boilers' recent games:
- vs. Notre Dame (L), 66-7
- at Oregon State (L), 38-21
- vs. Nebraska (L), 28-10
- at Wisconsin (L), 52-6
There's a short week coming up with Oregon next week, which is going to be even worse.
Plus, four of Purdue's highest-profile recruits have de-committed in the last 10 days or so, so how long will it be until these players have completely quit?
I hate to take an easy one for my overdog and I hate to back Bielema laying a big number, but you can't deny what's going on with Purdue here.
More From the "Big Bets on Campus" Podcast
 |  |  |
