For the past four seasons on our college football betting podcast (now Big Bets on Campus), Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs for each Saturday's slate.
We had two duds last week with LSU and Wyoming, but we're onto Week 7 where we have a pair of primetime home dogs on the docket.
- 2018-20: 39-67 +5.1 units
- 2021: 4-8 -2.35 units
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pays just over 5-1 odds.
Wilson: UNLV +230
- Spread: Utah State -3
- Over/Under: 62.5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 16
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV: CBSSN
- Location: Las Vegas, NV
Despite no wins on the season, UNLV is still fighting hard for head coach Marcus Arroyo. The Rebels are 3-1-1 against the number and on the verge of their first outright victory of the year.
Plenty of those hopes fall on quarterback Doug Brumfield, currently listed as questionable for this game. Brumfield did not participate in practice through Wednesday, but he is reportedly close to 100% after comments from Arroyo stated the quarterback "did some running around."
The dual-threat against Utah State is critical, as the Aggies are 119th in the nation in defending rush explosiveness. Without Brumfield, UNLV would start Cameron Friel, who had a forgetful game against UTSA in downfield passing. However, for the season, Friel is 29 of 37 on passes shorter than 10 yards, an area that can expose the Utah State 3-4 defense that ranks 121st in coverage grading, per PFF.
Utah State head coach Blake Anderson has been successful in the transition from Arkansas State, bringing a sleuth of transfers, including quarterback Logan Bonner. While the passing attack has produced success for Utah State, they will face a UNLV defense that shuts down the explosive play. The Rebels rank 16th in defensive passing expected points. That could be trouble for the Aggies, who have lived on explosive plays in Passing Downs. The Rebels have fielded a top 15 defense in shutting down chunk yardage plays when teams get behind schedule.
UNLV has covered all but just one game this season, a sign that the first win of the season is on the way for Arroyo. Brumfield would add a running dimension to the offense where Utah State would have no answer, but the Rebels defense excels in stopping explosive passing. That aspect alone will get UNLV the cover and a possible first victory of the season.
Stuckey: Tennessee +120
- Spread: Ole Miss -2.5
- Over/Under: 82.5
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 16
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: SECN
- Location: Knoxville, TN
It's the Lane Kiffin revenge game … or Tennessee revenge game depending which side of the fence you are on. I'm personally rolling with the Vols here in a game I actually make them a slight favorite. Now that Josh Heupel has decided to end the Joe Milton experiment and go with Hendon Hooker full time at quarterback, this Tennessee offense has become a rocket ship.
There's absolutely no reason why the Vols can't score on just about every possession. They should basically be able to hand it off for five yards a carry with ease against a small defensive front that they should overwhelm.
Will Ole Miss score at will also? Most likely. This could easily come down to the last team with the ball, so I'll happily side with the plus-money with Rocky Top at home. It's just that simple.
