You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided this year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we cover weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Last week, we got a third straight split with a cash on Oklahoma and a whiff on Notre Dame. For Week 8, we both rolled with a pair of home conference favorites in the mid-afternoon kickoff window.
YTD: 8-6 +1.4 units
Stuckey: LSU -1.5
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 65.5 -106o / -114u | +105 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 65.5 -106o / -114u | -125 |
I believe LSU has value as a favorite of under a field goal against an undefeated Ole Miss squad on Saturday afternoon in Death Valley.
Through six games, the Tigers have faced three teams currently ranked in the top 20 of my latest power ratings. Meanwhile, the Rebels have faced none with their best win coming at home by three over Kentucky thanks to a pair of late Wildcat fumbles.
Outside of its electric rushing attack, Ole Miss just hasn't impressed me much, especially given the level of competition. LSU's talented defensive line can cause enough negative plays to contain the high-flying Rebels.
Additionally, the LSU offense will serve as a major step up in class for the Ole Miss defense compared to what it has faced so far this season.
The Tigers should control the line of scrimmage to get their ground game going. More importantly, they can build on last week's positive passing game results at Florida.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels had his best game of the season by far. He consistently attacked down the field, which head coach Brian Kelly had been clamoring for. In the first half alone, he completed eight passes of 15-plus yards after attempting just 18 over the first five games.
Also, star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte finally broke out for the first time in 2022. He finished with 115 yards receiving after amassing only 130 combined through the first five games.
This has also been a great spot to back Brian Kelly, who seems to be finally getting through to his players. Since 2005, Kelly owns a gaudy 36-14-2 (72%) against-the-spread record as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal. Out of 452 coaches in our Action Labs database over that span, Kelly has turned the most profit with those parameters.
Believe it or not, LSU can move into a share of first place in the SEC West with a victory. I believe the Tigers will take care of business against an overrated Rebels squad.
Pick: LSU -1.5 |
Wilson: Maryland -14
| Northwestern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Maryland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
I project Maryland as a 17-point favorite before applying any discount for the possibility that quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa could miss this game. After leaving last week's game with a knee injury, he's currently listed as a true game-time decision following a positive MRI.
If Tagovailoa doesn't suit up, backup quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. would get the nod under center. The former Wake Forest transfer led the Terps to a come-from-behind victory last week against Indiana after getting thrown into action.
Edwards threw a pair of touchdowns in the 10-to-20-yard range, which is an area where Northwestern can be exploited. He has enough ability to cover this spread if Tagovailoa is ruled out, which isn't a guarantee.
This could also serve as a revenge spot for Maryland head coach Mike Locksley, who may want to run this score up if presented with the opportunity. Back in the season opener of the 2020 pandemic season, Northwestern drummed the Terps, 43-3, in Evanston. I'm sure Locksley and a chunk of Maryland's roster that played in that contest haven't forgotten.
Northwestern is coming off of a bye, but longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald hasn't excelled in this spot historically. Since 2005, he's just 8-8 ATS following a bye and 8-13 ATS with eight-plus days between regular-season opponents.
From a matchup perspective, Maryland, which ranks 19th in Standard Downs Success Rate, passes at a top-35 rate nationally. That spells trouble for a Northwestern defense that ranks 130th in coverage, per PFF. Regardless of who plays quarterback, the Terps should move the ball.
Meanwhile, Northwestern's offense is horrific. The Wildcats rank outside the top 100 nationally in EPA per Play, Success Rate, explosiveness and third-down conversion rate. They don't do anything well and likely won't in College Park against an improved Maryland defense.
Lastly, Maryland boasts a massive edge in Finishing Drives on offense and defense. It ranks in the top 25 on both sides of the ball with a much tougher schedule to date (35th vs. 86th).
Expect the Terps to convert more opportunities into points, ultimately helping them pull away.
Pick: Maryland -14 |
