Let's take a look at our favorite college football favorites to bet in Week 8.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Just like every week with this beautiful sport, there are plenty of intriguing favorites on the board this week.
I'm rolling with Kentucky in a good matchup on the road against Florida, while Collin will look to the Mountain West with Washington State over Hawaii on the mainland.
Let's take a look at our Week 8 college football predictions and favorite NCAAF favorites for Saturday, Oct. 19.
Collin Wilson: Washington State -18.5 vs. Hawaii
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -112 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | +675 |
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -108 | 55.5 -108o / -112u | -1050 |
My overdog this week is Washington State against my beloved Hawaii Rainbow Warriors.
Wazzu has simply been a completely different animal at home offensively, dropping 70 points against Portland State, 37 against Texas Tech and 54 against San Jose State. While those may not be top-tier defenses, the Cougars are scoring at will at home no matter who the opponent is.
They rank second in Rush EPA and 20th in Pass EPA. This is not a methodical offense, and it's not based on picking up first downs. Expect plenty of big plays against a leaky Hawaii defense.
The Cougars love to have quarterback John Mateer completely blow up the field. In fact, he's everything to this team. Mateer leads Wazzu in rushing yards and already has six rushing touchdowns — a solid number for a quarterback in Week 8.
This matchup for Hawaii will be similar to its game against Hunter Watson and Sam Houston. Watson is essentially the only true RPO offense the Bows have faced, and he put up 10 rushes for 45 yards while throwing three touchdowns in a 31-13 victory.
The Rainbow Warriors also rank just mid-FBS against outside zone, which is something Washington State runs a lot.
On the other side, Hawaii's run-and-shoot offense is broken. I know it missed some key targets and receivers coming into this season, but I never imagined it would be 131st in creating explosives through the air. That's not the Timmy Chang run-and-shoot offense we know.
No Hawaii wide receiver sits over two yards per route run, and its best receiver, Pofele Ashlock, leads the nation in drops. It also doesn't help that quarterback Brayden Schager has had accuracy issues.
That won't fly against a Washington State defense that ranks 25th in PFF coverage grade.
Give me the Cougars in Pullman.
Stuckey: Kentucky -1.5 vs. Florida
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 42 -112o / -108u | -120 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 42 -112o / -108u | +100 |
Kentucky has bounced back very well this season after disappointing performances, and I expect the Cats to do the same here after losing to Vanderbilt.
Following a loss to South Carolina, they almost upset Georgia as 24-point underdogs, then followed up that loss with an upset win over Ole Miss as 17-point underdogs.
More importantly, I love the matchup.
Kentucky's passing attack remains wildly inconsistent, but the rushing attack has been productive in the top-15 Success Rate, which should be enough to move the ball against a Florida defense that can't stop the run, ranking outside the top-90 in EPA and Success Rate.
On the other side of the ball, teams simply can't run on this dominant Kentucky defensive front. As a result, without the injured Graham Mertz, the entire offensive burden will fall on the shoulders of DJ Lagway.
While talented, he simply isn't ready yet to consistently beat this Wildcat secondary.
Removing his game against Samford, Lagway has gone just 29-of-47 for 300 yards with two touchdowns to four interceptions, and this will be the best defense he will have faced all year.
He’s destined to be under pressure from the UK front, which will likely lead to a couple of key mistakes against a Cats secondary that can get home while dropping seven or eight, forcing Lagway to drive the ball efficiently down the field. That’s a tall task for the frosh.
For what it's worth, Billy Napier is 0-2 ATS against Kentucky since arriving in Gainesville, failing to cover by over 16 points per game.
Give me the better staff to bounce back with plus matchups on both sides of the ball against an inexperienced freshman quarterback.
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