Week 9 of the college football season is here with a slate that might be a little thin at the top.
Wait, Week 9? Already? My lord, this season is flying by.
The next time you read this piece, it'll be previewing games happening in November. That’s not fair. It feels like just days ago that we were discussing how Florida State had the best lines of scrimmage in the country, and Jackson Arnold was a dark horse for the Heisman Trophy.
How foolish we once were. Now the apples of our collective eyes reside in Boise, Bloomington and of course, at the service academies.
You know what? Forget the rest of the season, can we fast forward to Army vs. Navy now?
Speaking of Navy, it plays Notre Dame in one of the biggest games of the weekend.
We also have some top tilts in the SEC, some Big Ten intrigue and a massive collision at the top of the Mountain West.
Let’s get to it and run down some news and nuggets to know before placing your bets this weekend. Here's my Week 9 college football betting primer.
Friday, Oct. 25
Boise State vs. UNLV
The best Group of Five matchup of the week checks in on Friday in a possible preview of the eventual Mountain West championship game – or maybe an elimination game to make it there.
Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is still the Heisman favorite at +200, but he needs to continue to put up video-game numbers to stay at the top.
He'll also need to continue to keep driving his team to victories, and his Broncos are favored by 3.5 on the road.
Saturday, Oct. 26
Navy vs. Notre Dame
Mike Calabrese makes the strong case for Navy to cover the 12-point spread on our mid-week Group of Five Deep Dive podcast. Mike tried to talk himself into the outright upset, but he went with the safer play. He cites Navy’s ability to use misdirection in the run game, and the way it schemes up explosive passes.
He also points out that all of the pressure will be on Notre Dame to take care of business, but the roster is hamstrung by a swath of defensive injuries.
One of college football’s feel-good rivalries – this is about as amicable and respectable as it gets between two teams that play every year – could have some juice this week thanks to an ascendant Navy offense.
Nebraska vs. Ohio State
Ohio State is favored by 25.5 at home against a team that just got demolished by Indiana. Certainly the Buckeyes — who have shown no real weakness yet this season — can put up a more lopsided victory than the Hoosiers.
The home favorites have most of the advantages in this game, but one massive edge, in particular, stands out: the Buckeyes' special teams unit is ranked fourth in SP+ to Nebraska’s 127th.
Things like made kicks versus missed kicks, field position hidden yards or even tremendous blunders can go a long way in a team's effort to cover a large spread.
Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss
Oklahoma’s nightmare introduction to the SEC might get even spookier this Halloween weekend, as it takes on an Ole Miss team ready to fight to keep its College Football Playoff hopes kicking.
The Sooners are underdogs of 20.5 on the road; they haven’t closed as 20-point dogs since a 1997 game against Texas Tech.
While the defense is competent for the Sooners, the offense is a Murphy’s Law situation, ranking 127th in Havoc allowed.
Now they have to go on the road to face an Ole Miss team that's No. 1 in Havoc created.
Tulane vs. North Texas
At 67, this is the highest total on the board. The last five North Texas games have gone over, including a pair with even higher totals than this one.
The Mean Green might be America’s pointsiest outfit.
Washington vs. Indiana
Curt Cignetti’s Indiana program hosts Washington (+7) and ESPN’s College GameDay in the national limelight, his second time in two years hosting the festivities.
If his team comes up short against Washington – like his previously unbeaten JMU Dukes did in a home loss to App State in front of Kirk Herbstreit and the gang – then the notoriously crabby Cignetti might ban the show from his programs.
An upset loss is now more probable than ever, as the Hoosiers will be without veteran QB Kurtis Rourke, one of the best passers in the nation. Rourk suffered a thumb injury last week and will miss a few games.
Illinois vs. Oregon
The Oregon Ducks hopped up to No. 1 in the country in the AP Poll thanks to their big win over Ohio State. Despite this being a matchup of two AP-ranked teams, the spread is over three touchdowns, with the Ducks laying -21.5.
Stuckey points out in his indispensable Situational Spots column that when the market sees a huge discrepancy among ranked teams, it's usually right.
"Since 2005, in matchups between ranked teams, favorites of 14-plus have gone 76-53-1 ATS (58.9%), covering by 3.5 points per game, including 16-6 ATS (72.7%) when favored by at least three touchdowns."
Missouri vs. Alabama
The Missouri Tigers head to Alabama to take on the Tide in a playoff elimination game. They might have to do so without the services of veteran quarterback Brady Cook. The line ballooned three points to Mizzou +17 when his status was revealed as “doubtful” due to a high ankle sprain.
Cook toughed it out last week, as he came back from a mid-game trip to a nearby hospital to guide Missouri past Auburn.
If he plans to lead another batch of heroics, it'll be thanks to big passing plays; Alabama’s secondary checks in at the 30th percentile in Pass Explosiveness allowed, according to Gameonpaper.com.
The Tigers will need to shock the Alabama crowd with some big plays to superstar wideout Luther Burden III, who's all that and a bag of chips.
Texas Tech vs. TCU
The TCU Horned Frogs are laying just shy of a touchdown at home, and you all are gobbling up those points.
This is the most one-sided tracked bet in the Action App this weekend. Of the over 4,000 bets that have been logged on the spread in this game, 95% of the tickets are on the road Red Raiders to cover, and 89% of the money is on the same play.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt
The itinerary is set: first, be a top-five team, then play Georgia at home, then go on the road to Vanderbilt the next week.
Alabama beat Georgia and then lost to the Commodores, of course. Texas switched the first part of the script, but will it be able to dodge the Diego Pavia bullet on its visit to Broadway?
The Longhorns (-18.5) might have a quarterback controversy on their hands, which is a tough mindset to be in when facing an upset-orientated team with full-throated confidence in its own signal caller.
UL Monroe vs. South Alabama
South Alabama is favored by a touchdown at home in the Sun Belt separator game.
The ULM Warhawks are one of college football’s greatest stories this season; one of the sport’s most moribund programs has patched together a 5-1 record after some daring escapes and improbable wins.
Deep-pocketed bettors believe the ULM thing is a fluke, and the more talented Jaguars will prevail and cover. Of the 2,610 bets tracked in the Action App on the spread, 68% of the slips are on ULM to cover, but only 17% of the money is on the same bet.
That's a 51% discrepancy, and the biggest delta on the board this weekend.
LSU vs. Texas A&M
The “king of the hill” elimination matches start to ramp up in the SEC. About half of the league came into this season with a design on winning it, and now these teams are whittling down to the final two.
This is one of those matches, and these teams have some disdain for each other.
Our Collin Wilson likes the road underdog LSU Tigers (+2.5), laying out the case for an improving LSU pass defense that's been bowing up in the red zone:
The biggest question circles around Weigman against an LSU pass defense that's shown improvement. PFF graded the South Alabama and UCLA games as disasters from a coverage standpoint, while a Week 7 win over Ole Miss was by far the best game the LSU defense has played against the pass. The hot pass coverage then continued against Arkansas.
Weigman may find pockets of success, but the Tigers have been ruthless when it comes to opponent scoring attempts.
Cincinnati vs. Colorado
Colorado is quietly putting together a quality season. The surprising part of that isn't the quality part, but the quietly part.
The Buffs have gotten down to business and are playing their best and most well-rounded football of the Deion Sanders era. They're favored by almost a touchdown at home against a tough Cincinnati outfit.
In seven games a betting favorite at Colorado, Deion is 6-1 straight up but only 3-3-1 against the number.
