Last week's spots finished 5-3 thanks to a fortunate early slide by Pitt quarterback Christian Veilleux.
Regardless, as always, last week was last week, so there's no sense in dwelling. We're on to Week 9 of the college football season.
For reference, last year's spots finished a ridiculously unsustainable 45-20-1 (69.2%). I don't think I'll ever repeat that level of success in a season, but hopefully we can avoid the regression monster and have another profitable season.
Although, rough weeks in this gig are inevitable. I won't avoid a 2-6 stinker Saturday in perpetuity, so please wager responsibly. If you can't afford a horrible day of results, you're betting too much.
Plus, my primary goal is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.
Looking ahead to this Saturday, I have highlighted my nine favorite Week 9 spots below with a heavy dose of Pac-12 home underdogs and fades of ranked favorites, starting with one at noon, which is where I'll begin.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing, which I bet and logged on the Action App. For your convenience, I included what number I'd play each to in case the market has moved a bit or you read this later in the week.
- 2022: 45-20-1 +22.82 units (69.2%)
- 2023: 32-25-0 +3.38 units (56.1%)
- Overall: 77-45-1 +26.60 units (63.1%)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Kansas +10 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Purdue +2.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Florida +14.5 |
  | 4 p.m. | California +11 |
  | 5:30 p.m. | Boise State -4 |
  | 7 p.m. | Kentucky +3.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Cincinnati +7.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Arizona State +6.5 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | Arizona +3.5 |
Kansas +10 vs. Oklahoma
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
Following a successful fade of the Sooners last week, I'm going right back to the well with rock chalk at home. Even after last Saturday's scare against UCF, Oklahoma remains overvalued in the market, in my opinion.
The Sooners do have one of the most impressive wins of the season on a neutral field against Texas.
However, keep in mind they allowed over 500 yards of total offense in that game and benefited from a 3-0 turnover margin, a goal-line stand and horrid clock management by Steve Sarkisian that led to OU's last-minute game-winning touchdown drive against a Texas defense sitting back in prevent.
Oklahoma easily could have lost that game to a banged-up Horns squad. Meanwhile, it also experienced a bit more struggles against SMU and Cincinnati than those final scores indicate.
It also ranks second nationally in turnover margin at +10 and enjoyed quite a bit of good fortune in scoring opportunities on both sides of the ball. A few advanced metrics suggest potential looming regression that could work against the Sooners in the near future.
While quarterback Dillon Gabriel has played at a high enough level to warrant serious Heisman consideration, the rushing attack isn't firing on all cylinders behind an offensive line that has some issues. Marcus Major has 25 more carries than anybody else on the roster but has averaged fewer than four yards per attempt through seven games.
Additionally, the Sooners will continue to really miss leading receiver Andrel Anthony (now out for the season with an injury) at a position without much reliable depth.
The offense now just doesn't have the same level of explosiveness without Anthony and three pass catchers lost to the NFL or portal in the offseason who combined for 18 receptions for 264 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last season's matchup against Kansas.
On the other side of the ball, the Sooners boast a rock solid run defense that grades out elite in almost every metric. However, the back end can be exploited a bit in coverage, which is where I expect Kansas to attack.
Even if Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels can't suit up due to a back injury (I'd call him doubtful at this point), Jason Bean has demonstrated he can adequately lead this high-powered offense over the past two seasons, including last year's 42-point outburst against these Sooners in Norman.
So far in 2023, Bean has completed 65% of his passes with a 9:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio to go along with an impressive 9.2 yards per attempt, which ranks in the top 10 among all FBS-qualified quarterbacks.
I have the utmost respect for Kansas head coach Lance Leipold and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who run one of the most difficult offensive schemes to prepare for in the entire country. It's an offense that uses a ton of pre-snap motion and misdirection while spreading the ball out to a multitude of targets.
With the Jayhawks coming off of a bye, not only should they be much healthier and fresher, but the offensive staff should have plenty of new wrinkles that Oklahoma won't have on tape.
Plus, Jason Bean gets extra time to jell with the offense after being thrown into action without ideal rep time with the first-string offense in previous weeks.
Lastly, the Oklahoma special teams are a bit of a mess right now. I currently have that unit ranked outside the top 100 nationally, while Kansas has undergone a special teams resurgence since Leipold arrived in Lawrence.
Through eight weeks, I actually have Kansas ranked inside the top 10 on special teams. That advantage for the Jayhawks could certainly come into play and potentially decide the cover.
Ultimately, I just can't get to double digits in this Big 12 showdown.
The Oklahoma offense should have its way with a porous Kansas defense, but I believe the Jayhawks — who find themselves in a great situational spot — can keep pace as they did in 2022 on the road in a game that featured 92 total points.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Big 12 home teams have the highest ROI of any conference at +3.6%. The only other league with a positive ROI over that span is the Pac-12 with a minuscule +0.5%.
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Purdue +2.5 at Nebraska
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
If I had to pick a favorite spot of the week, this Big Ten matchup would get the nod.
On the surface, one might be tempted to lay under a field goal with 4-3 Nebraska at home against 2-5 Purdue. However, the Boilermakers have been a bit unlucky in a number of areas that have led to some misleading results against one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country to date.
Meanwhile, I have Nebraska's strength of schedule ranked right around the national average.
Not only am I buying low on Purdue after a bye week, which has added benefit in the first year of a new staff, but the injury situation for the Nebraska offense has turned dire.
After already losing wide receivers Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda and Marcus Washington in addition to running backs Gabe Ervin Jr. and Rahmir Johnson to season-ending injuries earlier in the season, the Cornhuskers saw their three top offensive linemen — who had combined for 78 career starts — and leading receiver Billy Kemp join the wounded list in last week's victory over Northwestern.
As a result, head coach Matt Rhule, who said he's never seen a worse injury situation a few days ago, will need to rely on a number of inexperienced freshmen and sophomores to fill in. There will likely be major growing pains.
From a matchup perspective, Nebraska has one of the nation's least efficient passing attacks, which Purdue's slow-footed secondary will welcome with open arms.
The Boilermakers can simply load the box against a severely shorthanded skill position group and offensive line.
Additionally, the Cornhuskers' stingy defense has fared much better against the run, but that's not as relevant this week against the pass-heavy Purdue Air Raid attack led by Texas transfer quarterback Hudson Card and new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell.
Before locking this in, I'm waiting to see if it gets back up to +3. If it doesn't, I'll still bet it and would play down to +1.
Notable Nugget
Per Action Labs, Purdue is the least profitable home team in FBS games since 2005 at a paltry 42-70-1 (37.5%) ATS. However, the Boilermakers have turned a nice profit on the road over that period at 49-37-4 (57.0%).
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Florida +14.5 vs. Georgia
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
I'm headed back to the Georgia fade train, which has cashed six out of seven times to start 2023.
Coming into the season, I thought Georgia might be very complacent on a weekly basis after what I heard coming out of camp. It also just made logical sense for a back-to-back national champion that knew it had an absolute cupcake schedule, especially for an SEC team.
Fortunately, I had a sneaky suspicion Kirby Smart would get his kids up from the start against an undefeated Kentucky team between the hedges in prime time after almost losing to Auburn.
Well, even after the bye week in Jacksonville for a hyped rivalry full of hate on both sides, I could see Georgia coming out a bit flat against another team that will take its best shot, like every Georgia opponent will inevitably do this season.
The Bulldogs' advanced metrics obviously all generally look outstanding for one of the most talented FBS rosters, but they've also benefited from a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 100 nationally.
Even against those significantly inferior opponents, just take a look at the scores at the end of the first quarter:
If you exclude Kentucky, the Dawgs have scored the same number of first-quarter points (24) as their six other opponents for an average score of 4-4 after the first 15 minutes.
That's even worse than it may sound when considering five of those six teams have defenses ranked outside my top 90 nationally.
Unless I truly believe the Bulldogs will come out with their hair on fire in a great spot, I'll assume this will remain a trend until they truly believe they need to bring their A-game from the jump.
And if the Gators can hang around early, I really like their chances to keep this within two touchdowns and wouldn't be surprised if they gave Georgia a semi-sweat late.
In addition to the complacency angle, this is a Georgia team I've also had lower than the market from a pure power-ratings perspective since the first week of the season. To me, this team is not close to the level of either national champion club from the past two years.
Not only has Kirby Smart seen a mass exodus of NFL talent, including supremely underrated quarterback Stetson Bennett, but he also replaced offensive coordinator Todd Monken (now with the Ravens) with Mike Bobo, which I believe is a material downgrade.
In regards to Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, his numbers pass the smell test, but again, he's faced a laughable schedule of opposing pass defenses to date.
Plus, he now won't have the nation's best tight end — and maybe best overall weapon — in Brock Bowers, who suffered an injury in his last game against Vanderbilt that will sideline him for a while.
Bowers has hauled in nearly a quarter of Beck's completions in addition to four of his 14 touchdown passes. Georgia will obviously miss the raw production, but Bowers also opened up so much for the rest of the offense with all of the attention he required from opposing defenses.
During his absence, the offense will undoubtedly take a step back and likely take some time to adjust, even if he will be replaced with another talented tight end in Oscar Delp.
Without Bowers, Florida defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong can stick to his roots and come in with an ultra-aggressive game plan.
Armstrong, one of the top young defensive minds in college football — just look at the drop-off at Southern Miss after his departure — will likely bring plenty of exotic blitzes and utilize a heavy dose of simulated pressures to force the inexperienced Beck into a key mistake or two. Based on Beck's splits, that could lead to success.
On the season, he's yet to take a sack when not blitzed, but he has a near 25% Pressure-to-Sack Ratio when blitzed, with two Turnover-Worthy Plays to only one Big-Time Throw.
His average depth of target against the blitz also drops by almost three full yards, as he tends to check down quickly in those situations, which could help Florida limit the issues it has experienced in allowing long catches.
Georgia will still probably connect on quite a few explosive passing plays against the aggressive Gators defense, but I also expect Beck to turn it over for a fourth straight game.
Plus, it helps that Georgia's run game hasn't fully figured it out yet, primarily due to injuries in the backfield and along an offensive line that has dealt with constant reshuffling. We'll see if right tackle Amarius Mims returns, although he'd probably still be on a snap count and not at 100%.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia once again owns one of the stingiest units in FBS. However, it has seen an uptick in explosive plays allowed, doesn't get a ton of pressure and has struggled a bit more than usual against the run.
Those deficiencies were on full display in a one-possession win against a completely one-dimensional and anemic Auburn offense. I'm sure the Gators will look to replicate some of the things that the Tigers did in that game.
Generally speaking, the Florida offense has been better than expected.
Quarterback Graham Mertz has a sky-high 76.2% completion percentage along with 12 touchdown passes to just two interceptions.
Despite some offensive line reshuffling of their own, this rebuilt Gators offense is getting more comfortable in Billy Napier's scheme with each passing week.
I expect Florida to use a high frequency of 12 personnel to attack the Georgia run defense with a heavier dose of the explosive Trevor Etienne on standard downs and Montrell Johnson in short-yardage situations.
The Gators have the highest Success Rate of any team in that personnel grouping, which would give them maximum bulk up front while keeping all of their best skill position players on the field in Etienne, stud wideout Ricky Pearsall, pass-catching tight end Arlis Boardingham and emerging freshman wide receiver Eugene Wilson, who could also provide juice in the running game with some end-arounds and other looks.
Mertz may even use his legs to convert a few third downs to extend drives, which similarly athletic quarterbacks have done quite a bit against Georgia this season.
However, the formula, in my opinion, is more runs in heavy personnel and an expanded short-passing attack, which can both work against Georgia. Then, you just hope for a couple of explosive Etienne runs and connected deep shots to Pearsall off play action.
Not only do I show value in this number, but I like some of the matchups for a Florida team that should play up in this spot. With the offense continuing to improve and Armstrong getting two weeks to prepare for a Bowers-less defense, I like the Gators to keep this within two scores in a game that will be played at a super slow pace, which will limit the number of possessions under the new clock rules.
Lastly, Billy Napier has thrived in the underdog role historically and has demonstrated he'll go to extreme lengths to keep scoring until the bitter end when trailing.
Hopefully, that won't be necessary for the cover, but it's nice having Backdoor Billy in your back pocket if Florida trails by three scores late in the fourth quarter.
Are you a resident of Georgia or Florida and want to bet on this weekend's game? Look into DFS options like PrizePicks, Fliff, or Betr as an alternative to traditional sportsbooks!
Notable Nugget
Billy Napier owns a ridiculous career 19-6 ATS record (76.0%) as an underdog, covering by over seven points per game. That includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark against ranked SEC foes during his short time in Gainesville.
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California +11 vs. USC
4 p.m. ET ⋅ Pac-12 Network
I made the mistake of backing the Trojans as a favorite last week, but they failed to even win outright in a great situational spot against a Utah team that had a number of backups at key positions.
I won't be making that mistake this week, as I'm backing the 3-4 Bears, who easily could have two more wins if not for some bad variance in close games.
On paper, the USC defense should shred a downward-trending Cal defense under head coach Justin Wilcox. However, I have no reason to believe that a much-improved Bears offense won't do the same against a sad USC defense that simply isn't progressing under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch.
Over the past four games, the Trojans have allowed a pathetic 41 points per game.
Regardless of who gets the nod under center for Cal, which has played three different quarterbacks due to injuries, it should move the ball with relative ease by leaning on a very efficient ground game that ranks among the top 30 in Success Rate and EPA per Play against a horrendous USC run defense that ranks outside the top 80 in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
This is also a great situational spot for the Bears on paper. While Cal has had two weeks to rest up, get healthy and prepare for USC, the Trojans will play for a sixth straight Saturday after five exhausting games across four cities.
Fatigue is certainly a potential factor, but I'd be much more concerned about the current mental state of Lincoln Riley's bunch.
Coming into the season, USC had exceptionally high expectations, which have all essentially been wiped away after back-to-back losses.
There's a really good chance the Trojans, who already have looked a little checked out at times on the sidelines, could come out with a lack of focus in a colossal sandwich spot.
Following a pair of emotional games against Utah and Notre Dame, Riley will try to keep his kids focused on 3-4 Cal prior to games against Washington, Oregon and UCLA to close out the regular season.
That's no easy task, especially with a potentially deflated group.
When Cal made the trip down I-5 to visit USC in 2022, it lost in a 41-35 shootout. I expect a similar type of game on Saturday in Berkeley.
Notable Nugget
Justin Wilcox owns a 26-14-1 (65.0%) ATS mark as an underdog, including 17-8 (68.0%) when catching more than a touchdown, covering by 5.7 points per game.
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Boise State -4 vs. Wyoming
5:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS2
This sets up as an ideal buy-low/sell-high spot in a matchup of two Mountain West teams coming off bye weeks.
The Cowboys have surprised many with a 5-2 start, but they only have a net scoring margin of +5 on the season.
The Pokes have a pair of underwhelming wins over New Mexico and Portland State by 9 and 14, respectively, plus three other victories by a combined 10 points with the help of turnovers, special teams touchdowns and opposing quarterback injuries.
Meanwhile, Boise State lost at Washington understandably, but the Broncos' other three losses came by a combined six points on a Hail Mary, last-second field goal and game-changing blocked field goal returned for an 80-yard touchdown against Memphis.
Additionally, Boise got much healthier during its bye week. Running back George Holani should return to provide a dynamic 1-2 punch with Ashton Jeanty, the best back in the country that too many don't know about. He'll be playing on Sundays soon.
Plus, the offensive line will be fully healthy for the first time since fall camp.
It also looks like Taylen Green will get the start at quarterback. Hopefully, he gets most of the snaps, and offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan utilizes his rushing ability, but I'm assuming we still see some type of rotation with fellow signal-caller (and more pure dropback passer) Maddux Madsen.
Lastly, from a matchup perspective, Wyoming can't really take advantage of major Boise secondary deficiencies from a unit that had to replace an abundance of high-end talent in the offseason.
Boise is also due a few bounces, while the opposite is true for Wyoming. With a very similar schedule difficulty, the Broncos have a -5 turnover margin, while the Pokes sit at +5.
After blowing a 30-10 lead with under five minutes to go at Colorado State, the bye came at a perfect time for Boise State, which has bounced back nicely from horrid losses in recent seasons.
I've also heard glowing reports about the state of the locker room and how practice has gone during the off-week.
Ultimately, I believe Boise bounces back in a big way, continuing its dominance over a Wyoming program it has owned with a 16-1 head-to-head edge, including a perfect 8-0 record at home with those wins coming by an average of just under 17 points per game.
Notable Nugget
Wyoming has a very strong home-field advantage for a multitude of reasons. However, since 2005, the Pokes are just 15-25 ATS (37.5%) on the road in league play as a favorite or underdog of less than a touchdown.
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Kentucky +3.5 vs. Tennessee
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Tennessee finds itself in one of the toughest spots of the weekend. The Vols will make the trip to Lexington for their second straight SEC road game after a hard-fought loss against Alabama that came immediately after an emotional, close win against Texas A&M in Knoxville.
After facing two extremely physical opponents, fatigue could certainly bite Josh Heupel's squad on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Kentucky should be much fresher after a sorely needed bye week. The Cats should also be much healthier overall with team captain and top offensive lineman Kenneth Horsey expected to now be at 100% along with starting linebacker Trevin Wallace and key depth piece Keeshawn Silver in the interior of the defensive line after both missed the Georgia game.
Most importantly, I have heard some positive reports surrounding Devin Leary, who had been dealing with a mechanical issue caused by the pectoral injury he suffered last season at NC State.
He may really benefit from the break, so you could see more juice from this anemic passing offense that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per Pass, completion rate and Passing Success Rate if Leary's accuracy improves.
It will also help if the wide receivers can curtail the drop issues against a Tennessee secondary that could be without top cornerback Kamal Hadden, who left last week's game with an injury.
The offensive line also has dealt with a lot of shuffling up front, so that group could also look better following the bye.
Plus, this is a good matchup for the Kentucky defense, which ranks in the top 20 nationally in Rush Success Rate and yards per carry (3.1). That's paramount against an elite Tennessee rushing attack that features the three-headed monster in the backfield of Jaylen Wright, Jabari Small and Dylan Sampson, who have combined to average 6.0 yards per carry on over 200 attempts.
However, in Tennessee's only two road games (also against strong run defenses), it rushed only 46 times for 172 yards for an average clip of 3.7 yards. To put those numbers in context, the former would rank in the top three nationally, while the latter would fall outside the top 100.
Now, the Kentucky pass defense has been extremely vulnerable. The Wildcats still do a decent job of preventing explosive plays, but they sit in the bottom 15 in the country in Pass Success Rate.
However, I just don't trust Joe Milton to consistently move the ball through the air without costly misfires and mistakes.
These two teams do profile pretty similarly, as Kentucky also features a strong rushing attack that ranks fifth in yards per rush and ninth in EPA per Play, primarily thanks to Ray Davis, who boasts a gaudy 22.5% explosive rate on his carries.
Tennessee has a top-10 rush defense by almost every metric, but it does rank in the bottom 15 in explosiveness allowed. While the efficiency might not be there, I expect Davis to break a couple of long runs, which could decide the outcome.
Ultimately, this is a great spot to buy Kentucky after two blowout losses prior to a much-needed bye week, which, by all indications, has served the offense well. Expect some added wrinkles and more tempo from offensive coordinator Liam Coen to go along with a potential improvement in Leary's accuracy.
A healthier offensive line and wide receiver room also won't hurt matters against a potentially gassed Tennessee defense.
Meanwhile, this is a favorable matchup for a Kentucky defense that should come out with a purpose after getting embarrassed in back-to-back outings.
Notable Nugget
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has gone 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%) against ranked opponents, including 8-1 (88.9%) as a favorite or underdog of a touchdown or less.
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Cincinnati +7.5 at Oklahoma State
8 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
With this spread now moving past the key number of seven, this has become the buy-low/sell-high spot of the week.
While the Pokes have won three straight games as underdogs, the Bearcats have gone in the complete opposite direction with five straight losses. As a result, I believe this marks the bottom of the market on Cincy and the top on Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys have undoubtedly looked much better on offense since the bye week, which has sparked their three-game winning streak. Head coach Mike Gundy finally decided to stick with Alan Bowman at quarterback instead of juggling three different signal-callers, and the Pokes changed the running scheme while leaning more on Ollie Gordon.
Over the past four contests, the explosive sophomore back has rushed 97 times for 707 yards and seven total touchdowns for a gaudy average of 7.3 yards per carry.
In comparison, over the first three games of 2023, Gordon tallied only 19 total attempts for 109 yards. He's gone from essentially six carries to 25 per game.
However, even with the offensive improvement, I simply can't get to this number, especially in a potential letdown spot. The high-riding Pokes could come out a bit flat with a potential look-ahead to the final installment of Bedlam next Saturday in Stillwater.
Also, the defense still leaves a lot to be desired. During its past three upset victories, the rejuvenated offense has averaged 486 yards per game, but the defense has also allowed opponents to average 448 yards.
Oklahoma State certainly benefited from some good fortune in high-variance stats of late as well. Its past three opponents went just 1-for-8 on fourth-down attempts (which led to a number of short fields) with a -4 turnover margin (3-7) — including a key pick-six.
Conversely, the opposite has been true of the Bearcats, who have certainly struggled at times during Scott Satterfield's first season, but things haven't been as bad as they may appear on the surface. They were undoubtedly outplayed by Iowa State, but the Bearcats really beat themselves in the other four losses:
- Outgained BYU, 498-295, in eight-point loss
- Outgained Miami (OH), 538-358, in OT loss
- Oklahoma had only 50 more net yards in 14-point loss
- Outgained Baylor, 450-396, in three-point loss
During their five-game losing streak, the Bearcats have only forced three turnovers while giving it away nine times for a -6 margin. That includes two massive game-swinging defensive touchdowns in one-possession losses with a BYU pick-six and a Baylor fumble return on a kickoff.
Cincinnati has also had monumental struggles in the red zone after moving the ball successfully between the 20s. The Bearcats are certainly due to get some bounces to go their way.
From a matchup perspective, both defenses have allowed a ton of explosiveness, so this could turn into a bit of a shootout.
However, the Oklahoma State passing offense ranks in the bottom three nationally in that category, which will be welcome news for a Bearcats back end that has lost an abundance of talent in recent seasons.
Additionally, Cincy's run defense has been very stout, which is now a requirement when facing Gordon and the new-look Oklahoma State offense.
Notable Nugget
The week after winning outright as an underdog, teams on a three-game winning and covering streak have gone just 6-22-2 ATS (21.4%) as a home favorite of more than a touchdown, signaling potential inflation at the top of their market value.
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Arizona State +6.5 vs. Washington State
8 p.m. ET ⋅ Pac-12 Network
If it's not broken, don't fix it. I'm once again going back to my beloved Sun Devils after a sweat-free cover in Seattle in a game they probably win outright as four-touchdown underdogs if they had a competent kicker.
Even with that inspired effort that shocked a lot of people, I still believe this team remains extremely undervalued in the market after a horrifying start to the season. However, after back-to-back blowout home losses against Oklahoma State and Fresno State, the Sun Devils have covered four straight to begin conference play with relative ease.
The struggles early had more to do with extremely bad luck in terms of turnovers, field position and especially injuries. Against Fresno State, they used three quarterbacks in a game where they turned the ball over eight times, leading to their first home shutout loss since the 1980s.
Well, they have since gotten much healthier and have finally found their quarterback in Trenton Bourguet, who has a very good group of skill-position players to work with in the backfield and at wide receiver.
The defense is also one of the most underrated units in the country under new defensive coordinator Brian Ward, who actually came down to Tempe from Pullman in the offseason. As a result, he has a ton of familiarity with quarterback Cam Ward and this Washington State offense.
From a matchup perspective, the Cougars feature one of the nation's most pass-heavy offenses. That plays right into the hands of Ward's defense, which excels in coverage and bringing different pressure looks that should force Ward into key mistakes.
On the season, the Sun Devils defense ranks in the top 10 nationally in both EPA per Pass and overall explosiveness allowed, which is key against a new-look Wazzu offense that pushes the ball downfield more, ranking 28th in the country in Explosiveness.
On the other side of the ball, Arizona State should have success running the ball with Cameron Skattebo and company against a Washington State defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate due to a major weakness at linebacker following major attrition at that position during the offseason.
I'll happily take the points here with the still-undervalued host, which still has so much potential positive regression coming their way.
Plus, this is a pretty good matchup on both sides of the ball for Arizona State, while Brian Ward's familiarity with Cam Ward should pay dividends for the defense.
Forks Up.
Notable Nugget
Weird things happen to Pac-12 teams in the desert. The Sun Devils have gone 46-31-3 (59.7%) at home in league games since 2005.
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Arizona +3.5 vs. Oregon State
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Let's stay in the Copper State to back another home dog in some Pac-12 After Dark.
Hopefully, for my sake, everything continues to turn up Arizona in the sports world with the Diamondbacks also shocking the baseball world by making the World Series.
Similar to the Sun Devils, the Wildcats continue to not get enough respect in the market. This team has taken massive strides in the second year under head coach Jedd Fisch.
Their 4-3 record might not look super impressive, but they arguably should have won at USC and Mississippi State, falling short in both games in overtime. Their other loss also came by one possession against Washington.
The Wildcats easily could be sitting at 6-1 and squarely in the mix for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship.
They have seen almost no drop-off on offense after losing starting quarterback Jayden de Laura to injury. In fact, I'd actually argue that freshman Noah Fifita should remain the starter moving forward. The California native has shined in three starts — all against top-20 opponents — by throwing for eight touchdowns to just two interceptions.
On the season, Fifita has completed over 75% of his passes and ranks 12th in QBR among all FBS quarterbacks. He has complete command of this offense and makes fewer Turnover-Worthy Throws than de Laura.
It also helps to have a dynamic group of wide receivers on the outside who should torch a very vulnerable Oregon State secondary that has benefited from facing three straight freshmen who are no longer the starting quarterbacks on their respective teams. In their only two Pac-12 road games, they gave up 40 and 38 points.
The Beavers have also struggled against the run, ranking among the 15 worst teams in Rush Success Rate Allowed. That spells bad news against a very underrated and deep stable of Arizona backs who spearhead a very balanced offensive attack.
This is a very favorable matchup for Arizona against an Oregon State team that just doesn't have the same juice outside of Corvallis, where it has been a covering machine.
Notable Nugget
Against FBS teams, head coach Jonathan Smith is 11-2 ATS (84.6%) as a home favorite but just 3-5 (37.5%) when laying points away from Corvallis.
