You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided this year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we cover weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Last week, we got a fourth straight split after LSU cruised for me, but Maryland couldn't pull away from Northwestern without the services of starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa.
For Week 9, we both rolled with a pair of home conference favorites in the mid-afternoon kickoff window.
YTD: 9-7 +1.3 units
Stuckey: Miami (Ohio) -8
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -300 |
| Akron Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +240 |
I believe you're getting Miami (Ohio) at a bargain price after star quarterback Brett Gabbert returned to action last week. He didn't put up great numbers, but I'm sure he had to shake off the rust after suffering an injury in the season opener.
Plus, the offense had been running a completely different scheme in his absence. Expecting a smooth transition in his first game back is a bit unrealistic.
Gabbert and the entire offense should look much better this week against an absolutely horrific Akron secondary. Miami has struggled immensely in pass protection, but Akron doesn't generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
When Akron has the ball, the pass-happy Zips won't have any success on the ground against a Miami defense that ranks in the top 25 nationally in both yards per carry allowed and Rush Success Rate.
Consequently, the Zips should find themselves in plenty of passing downs with an offensive line that ranks 130th in Passing Downs Sack Rate. That spells trouble against an aggressive RedHawk defense that makes its living by getting into the backfield.
Akron did look feisty last week in a close loss to Kent State, but the Zips faced a backup quarterback making his first career start. I have no problem fading them in this spot, especially with almost no home-field advantage.
Since 2005, Akron has been the least profitable home underdog by a wide margin. Over that span, the Zips have gone 17-36 (32.1%) against the spread, failing to cover by an average of 7.7 points per game.
Pick: Miami (OH) -8
Wilson: Georgia -22.5
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -105 | 56.5 -105o / -115u | +1060 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -115 | 56.5 -105o / -115u | -2300 |
Gator fans may need a cocktail or two after this game, which I believe sets up for a Georgia blowout win.
The Bulldogs should have no issues scoring against a Florida defense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in a number of categories, including Success Rate.
Additionally, the Gators aren't generating any Havoc and can't get off the field on third downs. Believe it or not, only Colorado has allowed opponents to convert at a higher clip on third downs than Florida. That's not a promising sign against a Georgia offense that ranks in the top 10 in that department in large part due to the shortest average to-go distance on third downs.
Even if Florida can somehow slow Georgia down on early downs, it ranks 129th in Defensive Success Rate in long down and distances. Meanwhile, Georgia ranks second in FBS on Passing Downs.
There just aren't many paths for Florida to get stops against the defending national champs, especially since tight ends Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington should feast against the Florida zone looks.
So, the question then becomes can Florida keep up against a Georgia defense struggling to create havoc and a pass rush? This isn't the same elite Bulldogs defense as last year, but it's still very good.
Plus, the Dawgs play about 70% zone coverage, which can neutralize the Anthony Richardson scrambles and explosive passing plays. That's what Florida's offense depends on to score all of its points.
