Week 8 of the college football season is in the books. It was a crazy Saturday with Georgia dominating Texas on the road and Tennessee taking down Alabama at Neyland Stadium.
Now, it's time to move on to Week 9.
This weekend, the focus will be on the SEC again with LSU traveling to College Station to take on Texas A&M in a top-15 SEC showdown.
I see some early betting value on three games around the country: the aforementioned LSU vs. Texas A&M game, UTSA vs. Tulsa and Utah vs. Houston.
The goal of this weekly column is to find bets to make early in the week to get the best possible price before kickoff, which is paramount when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
In an attempt to beat the market and get the best price, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
Let's dive into college football odds and picks for Week 9.
UTSA vs. Tulsa Pick
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Tulsa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
UTSA vs. Tulsa Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| UTSA -6.8 | UTSA -3.7 | UTSA -5.3 |
Tulsa's defense has been terrible this season, but I'm not sure UTSA is the team to exploit the Golden Hurricane.
For UTSA to win this game, it's going to have to pass the ball against Tulsa's terrible secondary.
Owen McCown has been a very average quarterback with a PFF Passing grade of 72.3, but his numbers on the road have been a lot worse.
He's averaging a little over five yards per attempt in his four road games this season and has just one game with a PFF Passing grade over 65.
The biggest problem for UTSA's offense has been its rushing attack, which has not been effective at all. The Miners have three different running backs who have at least 45 carries, but they're averaging just 3.4 yards per carry as a team.
That's because the offensive line hasn't done a good job of creating running lanes, ranking 87th in Offensive Line Yards and 107th in Stuff Rate allowed.
Tulsa does have a pretty good run defense that's top 50 in Defensive Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate allowed, so all of the pressure is going to be on McCown in this game.
The deciding factor here will likely be who wins the battle in the trenches. UTSA has a really good defensive front that leads the nation in Defensive Line Yards and ranks sixth in Stuff Rate.
However, Tulsa's offensive line won't be overwhelmed because it sits top-30 in both Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate allowed.
The key to exploiting UTSA is utilizing an aerial attack.
Tulsa quarterback Kirk Francis hasn't been an effective signal-caller this season, but he can throw the ball deep. Tulsa ranks 46th in explosive passing, which will be a solid advantage against a UTSA team that ranks 100th in EPA/Pass allowed.
All three projection models are showing value on Tulsa, so I like the value on the Golden Hurricane at +8.5
Pick: Tulsa +8.5 (BetMGM)
Utah vs. Houston Pick
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 37.5 -115o / -105u | -170 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 37.5 -115o / -105u | +145 |
Utah vs. Houston Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Utah -6.8 | Utah -6.0 | Utah -12.3 |
This is a really good buy-low spot on Utah.
The Utes lost Cam Rising for the rest of the season, which means Isaac Wilson will be the starting quarterback for the remainder of the season.
He's a decent quarterback in the short-to-intermediate passing game, but if he has to throw the ball at a high rate, that will a big problem for Utah. The good news is that really shouldn't be the case in this game.
Running back Micah Bernard has been running the ball really well for Utah this season, averaging 6.3 yards per carry with a PFF Rushing grade of 82.1.
He's really hard to bring down on first contact, averaging 4.4 yards per carry after contact while forcing 40 missed tackles this season.
That will be big against a Houston team that has given up a lot of big plays on the ground. The Cougars rank 121st in explosive rushing allowed and 74th in PFF's tackling grade.
Utah is likely going to have to lean on its defense to win this game, which isn't a problem because it has one of the best defensive units in the country.
The Utes rank second nationally in Success Rate Allowed because they're good against both the run and the pass.
Utah comes into this game top-30 in both EPA/Rush and EPA/Pass allowed. It should really be able to shut down a Cougars offense that has been one of the worst in the Power 4.
Houston ranks 120th in EPA/Rush but will continually try to establish the run, as it runs the ball on 55% of its offensive plays.
The reason is that Donovan Smith has been completely ineffective as a passer. He's averaging only 6.4 yards per attempt this season, has a 57.4 PFF Passing grade, and has posted only two big-time throws compared to eight turnover-worthy plays.
He's been so bad that Houston ranks 130th in EPA/Pass.
Additionally, the Cougars can't score once they cross the 40-yard line. They're dead last in the country in Finishing Drives, averaging only 2.7 points per scoring opportunity.
All three projection models have Utah projected as a favorite of at least six points, so I like the value on the Utes at -3.
Pick: Utah -3 (ESPN Bet)
LSU vs. Texas A&M Pick
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -122 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +118 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -142 |
LSU vs. Texas A&M Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Texas A&M -1.5 | LSU -0.3 | Texas A&M -0.4 |
To beat LSU, its opponent has to be able to throw the ball at an efficient rate. However, I'm not sure Texas A&M is the team to do that.
Conner Weigman is back at quarterback for the Aggies, but he was flat-out terrible in his last start against Mississippi State.
He went 15-of-25 for 217 yards with a whopping four turnover-worthy plays. It's even worse when you realize that Mississippi State ranks 126th in the country in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Because of those four turnover-worthy plays, he recorded a PFF passing grade of 42.7, which was just as bad as his opening game against Notre Dame.
Texas A&M does have a really good rushing attack that ranks 24th in EPA/Rush. That's because A&M boasts an elite offensive line that's top-15 in both Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate allowed.
Le'Veon Moss has been the main back and is averaging over six yards per carry this season. However, he ran for only 3.8 yards per carry against Mississippi State last week and didn't have a single rush that went over 10 yards.
LSU has a solid run defense that sits top-40 in both Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards, so I don't think Moss will find a lot of success on Saturday night.
Meanwhile, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been really good this season and has the Tigers fifth nationally in Passing Success Rate.
Nussmeier is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt with a PFF Passing grade of 82.2, and it's because of his ability to throw the ball deep. On passes over 10 yards in the air, Nussmeier has a PFF passing grade of over 85 with a completion percentage just below 50%.
Texas A&M has a really good run defense, but its secondary hasn't been that great.
The Aggies rank 52nd in Passing Success Rate allowed, and the one quarterback who torched them — Florida's Graham Mertz — averaged 8.6 yards per attempt against their secondary.
LSU head coach Brian Kelly has also been really good in these spots as a road 'dog in his career, going 68% against the spread.
All three projection models have this game close to a pick'em so I like the value on the Tigers at +3.5
Pick: LSU +3.5 (FanDuel)
