We start the Week 9 NCAAF slate with my two Saturday Noon spots, including college football picks and predictions for October 26.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 9, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 34-28-1 (54.8%)
- Overall: 133-98-2 (57.6%)
Week 9 College Football Picks, Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Washington +7 |
  | 12 p.m. | North Texas +7.5 |
Washington +7 at Indiana
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
Indiana has been an absolute machine so far this season under Curt Cignetti, who's now 21-2 over his past 23 games — tied with Kirby Smart for the best record among all coaches over that span.
I tried to go against the Hoosiers last week and came away with third-degree burns after the Hoosiers annihilated Nebraska. As a result, Indiana now sits in the top 15 of my updated power ratings, which is quite the feat for that program.
Maybe I'm still not high enough on the Hoosiers, but I do have Washington a few points better than Nebraska on a neutral field.
Plus, the Huskies are coming off of a bye, which I think is super important for a team that dealt with as much roster and staff turnover (and nasty travel) as any team in the country.
With that said, I'd now make this spread right around a touchdown with Kurtis Rourke, who underwent thumb surgery earlier this week.
While Tayven Jackson looked good in relief last week, he came into a great situation with a big lead.
He does also have previous game experience from last season, but he didn't necessarily light the world on fire and will now have to face a Washington pass defense that ranks in the top two nationally in both Success Rate and EPA per Pass.
I'm sure he'll look much better this season in this new and improved offense, but you have to assume a drop-off from Rourke, who was playing as well as any quarterback in the country.
Coming into this week, Rourke was PFF's highest-graded passer and ranks No. 1 in Passer Rating (128.9).
He has thrown 15 touchdowns to just three interceptions with a super impressive 77.4% adjusted completion percentage to go along with a 10.4 ADOT. He's been superb in every facet.
The Indiana defense has looked fairly stout, but I'm not fully sold on this group just yet, and it will now take on the most balanced offense it will face all season by far.
Notable Nugget
Washington head coach Jedd Fisch is 13-6 ATS (68.4%) as an underdog of seven or more points.
Projection: Washington +4.4
Pick: Washington +7 or Better
North Texas +7.5 vs. Tulane
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
I think this is a good spot to buy the Mean Green at home against a Tulane team I continue to be lower than the market on.
Last week, the Green Wave ended up beating Rice by two touchdowns, but that result was one of the most misleading of the entire weekend. They needed a 14-0 fourth-quarter run to pull away in a game where they were outgained in by a bad Rice team but benefited from a whopping +5 turnover margin.
On the season, Tulane now has a +11 turnover margin, while North Texas is at -4, so don't be surprised if some looming regression works in the home team's favor here.
Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah could also throw a couple of overdue interceptions. Over the past five games, he has thrown seven touchdowns to just one interception despite posting only a single Big-Time Throw to six Turnover-Worthy Plays, per PFF.
I also had questions about the Tulane secondary and edge rush coming into the season.
Well, that will finally get tested this week against Chandler Morris and a potent North Texas passing attack that's one of only four teams in the country averaging over 360 passing yards per game (along with Ole Miss, Miami and Syracuse).
Taking a look back at Tulane's schedule, it really hasn't been tested through the air for 60 minutes.
Kansas State's Avery Johnson really struggled to throw the ball early in the season, Oklahoma has proven to have nothing through the air, and its wins have come over USF (Byrum Brown left with an injury for an aerial attack that has been very underwhelming), UAB (with a third-string QB), Southeast Louisiana, Rice and Louisiana.
The latter was the only competent (and healthy) offense the Wave beat, but they also benefited from two non-offensive scores (and a +2 turnover margin) in a 41-33 victory despite being outgained, 413-355 with a 6.8-5.5 deficit in YPP.
Tulane will no doubt have success on the ground with Makhi Hughes and company against a suspect North Texas run defense, but North Texas' Air Raid can certainly keep up and could easily sneak in the backdoor at a spread above a touchdown if needed.
Notable Nugget
Since losing his FBS coaching debut, Eric Morris has covered six straight at home against FBS foes.
Projection: North Texas +4.8
Pick: North Texas +7 or Better
