Let's dive into our favorite college football favorites to bet in Week 9 of the NCAAF season.
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Just like every week with this beautiful sport, there are plenty of intriguing favorites on the board this week.
Collin will get things started with an SEC matchup between Ole Miss and a broken Oklahoma team, while I'll head out to Eugene, where Oregon hosts Illinois in a top-25 clash.
Let's take a look at our Week 9 college football predictions and favorite NCAAF favorites for Saturday, Oct. 19.
Collin Wilson: Ole Miss -20 vs. Oklahoma
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +850 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -1400 |
This Oklahoma offense has just been bad from every single direction.
The Sooners have struggled to perform from a Success Rate perspective both on the ground and through the air. The offensive line can't generate a push. They rank near dead last in big-play rate, and they're 130th in creating a Quality Drive.
It doesn't matter if Jackson Arnold or Michael Hawkins Jr. is under center — one out of every five passes for Oklahoma this season has been a contested catch.
Plus, there have been so many injuries that these targets are going to receivers who didn't even expect to play this season.
That won't work against an Ole Miss team that leads the nation in Defensive Havoc and has swatted more balls out of the air than any other team in the country. With Oklahoma ranking near dead last in Havoc Allowed and allowing eight tackles for loss per game with 14 fumbles, it's going to be in for another rude awakening.
But this is more than a pure analytics play. There's something else going on with this Oklahoma team that everyone should be watching.
With offensive coordinator Seth Littrell gone, former Duke OC Kevin Johns will take over the play-calling. Co-OC Joe Jon Finley has been the guy leading the offense on the sideling, but he's going to be in the press box from now on. The Sooners are essentially leaving an offense that's already in disarray without firm leadership on the field.
Ultimately, I think that's a terrible decision for a struggling offense.
Give me the Rebels, who should have the edge all over the field.
Stuckey: Oregon -21 vs. Illinois
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +950 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -1700 |
Let's start out with a little market overview. Michigan closed as a six-point favorite at Illinois last week, implying the Wolverines would be a double-digit home favorite against the Illini.
For reference, I would currently make Oregon a 23-point favorite over the Wolverines on a neutral field.
While I didn't agree with that massive market movement last weekend in a game the Illini ended up winning by two touchdowns, I think we're getting the Ducks at a pretty cheap price, especially if a -21 ever pops, which is what I'm waiting on.
Keep in mind Michigan's anemic offense did have more total yards but finished with a -3 turnover margin and a missed field goal. It had success moving the ball.
Even going back a few weeks, I played Penn State -17 against Illinois in a game that closed -18, and I have Oregon rated about six points better than Penn State on a neutral field.
While the Illini did end up covering that spread in a 14-point loss, it was a very misleading final score. After a 75-yard touchdown drive to open the game, Illinois did nothing the rest of the game, amassing a grand total of 144 yards.
However, it maintained relative contact due to a pair of missed 40-yard field goals by Penn State and a fourth-and-short stop in the red zone.
Both teams also have a common opponent in Purdue.
While Oregon beat the Boilermakers, 35-0, in West Lafayette on a short week following its huge win over Ohio State, Illinois needed overtime at home to prevail, 50-49, after Purdue failed on a potential game-winning two-point conversion attempt.
Bottom line, I believe Illinois is significantly overrated in the market right now.
Its other marquee wins against Nebraska (in overtime) and Kansas (outplayed but benefited from extreme turnover luck) also haven't aged particularly well.
From a matchup perspective, Illinois can't run the ball, ranking 85th in Rushing Success Rate, and now lost Kaden Feagin to injury. That's extremely problematic against Oregon.
While the Ducks have been particularly vulnerable to explosive runs, ranking outside the top 100 in EPA per Rush, their secondary has been nails all season.
That's the key to slowing down the Illini, who are led by a dynamic duo at receiver in Zakhari Franklin and Pat Bryant.
And while Luke Altmyer has played better overall this season, he has 15 touchdowns to just one interception despite a 1:1 ratio of Big-Time Throws to Turnover-Worthy Plays (9:9).
For reference, he threw 10 interceptions with the same number of Turnover-Worthy Plays last season. The turnover regression is coming for the Illini, who currently have a +7 margin — tied for 11th in the country.
On the other side of the ball, Oregon should have no issues getting its rushing attack going with a substantial edge at the line of scrimmage against a very underwhelming Illinois defensive line that's generating almost no Havoc and is getting pushed around on a consistent basis.
Running back Jordan James should have a big day, which will open up everything else for Dillon Gabriel and company, who will benefit from playing in Eugene with an extra day of rest and preparation.
After struggling early in the season, this Oregon offense is now firing on all cylinders, primarily due to the improvements along the offensive line and Gabriel getting more comfortable in a new scheme.
I do worry a bit about Oregon's propensity to go into a shell in the second half with big leads this season, so I may add some first-half here as well, but it did pack it in during two road games and one at home the week before Ohio State, which makes some sense.
While the Ducks don't really have the incentive to build big margins the rest of the way, this is still a home game against a ranked opponent.
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