The West Virginia Mountaineers (3-4, 2-2 Big 12) will head out to Tucson, Arizona, to take on the Arizona Wildcats (3-4, 1-3) on Saturday night. Kickoff for this Big 12 matchup is set for 7 p.m. ET at Arizona Stadium on FS1.
Both teams are 3-4 to this point in the season, but it's Arizona that's favored by 3.5 points. The over/under is set at 52.5 points, as this game is expected to have a decent amount of points scored.
Let’s dive into my West Virginia vs. Arizona predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.
West Virginia vs Arizona Prediction, Picks
West Virginia vs Arizona Odds, Spread, Lines
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 51.5 -108o / -112u | +170 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 51.5 -108o / -112u | -205 |
- West Virginia vs Arizona spread: Arizona -5.5
- West Virginia vs Arizona over/under: 51.5 points
- West Virginia vs Arizona moneyline: Arizona -205
- West Virginia vs. Arizona pick: Noah Fifita Over 262.5 Passing Yards
My West Virginia vs Arizona best bet is on Wildcats quarterback Noah Fifita to clear his passing yards total, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
West Virginia vs Arizona Betting Preview
West Virginia Football
West Virginia dropped its second game in a row last week, as it fell to Kansas State, 45-18, after losing to Iowa State before that.
The Mountaineers are 3-4 on the season, with their other two losses coming to Penn State and Pitt, who have both been impressive this season.
West Virginia ranks 14th in strength of schedule to this point in the season, according to CFB Reference, which I think has negatively impacted what some may think about this team.
The Mountaineers rank 62nd in Success Rate and 58th in EPA Per Play on offense this year. They run the 18th-most run plays per game, where they rank 31st in Rush Success Rate and 48th in EPA Per Rush.
They're only 91st in Pass Success Rate but 59th in EPA Per Pass, as they've generated some big plays through the air. Quarterback Garrett Greene is averaging a respectable 0.15 EPA per Dropback this season and has 1,352 yards through the air.
Greene was injured last week against Kansas State and is questionable with an upper-body injury, so it remains to be seen if he'll suit up. If not, it will be Nicco Marchiol, who has seen limited action in his college career.
Defensively, the Mountaineers have been great against the run but inept against the pass. They rank 53rd in Success Rate allowed and 121st in EPA Per Play allowed overall, as big plays have been an issue for them on this side of the ball.
West Virginia ranks 14th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 31st in EPA Per Rush Allowed compared to 116th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 132nd in EPA Per Pass allowed.
This is PFF’s worst-graded secondary in the FBS by far with a coverage grade of 33.8. The next closest team sits at 39.1.
Arizona Football
The Wildcats are 3-4 on the season but have lost three straight conference games. This team has also yet to exceed 23 points in any game since its season opener against New Mexico when it scored 61.
The Cats rank 87th in Success Rate and 103rd in EPA Per Play this season.
They primarily run a passing attack, with the 23rd-most pass plays per game, but they're just 77th in Pass Success Rate and 114th in EPA Per Pass.
After breaking out last season, quarterback Noah Fifita has not fared well in 2024, as he's averaging -0.13 EPA Per Dropback with 10 interceptions to nine touchdowns.
If there’s a defense for him to get right against, it would be this West Virginia secondary, but the Wildcats have not looked right offensively for weeks now.
Arizona’s defense hasn’t been great down to down, but it's good at preventing big plays. It ranks 88th in Success Rate allowed and 38th in EPA per Play allowed.
The Wildcats also rank 88th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 74th in Rush Success Rate allowed but 45th in EPA Per Play allowed in both facets.
West Virginia vs Arizona Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Arizona match up statistically:
West Virginia Offense vs. Arizona Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 77 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 88 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 80 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 19 | 99 | |
| Quality Drives | 18 | 87 | |
Arizona Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 106 | 31 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 100 | 131 | |
| Havoc | 77 | 111 | |
| Finishing Drives | 110 | 122 | |
| Quality Drives | 95 | 92 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 15 | 95 |
| PFF Coverage | 134 | 65 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 20 | 17 |
| Middle 8 | 75 | 64 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.2 (65) | 28.2 (90) |
| Rush Rate | 60% (32) | 44% (122) |
West Virginia vs Arizona Prediction
Despite the cross-country travel, I think West Virginia is the better team in this matchup and shouldn’t be the underdog.
However, it may be the underdog here solely because of the injury to Greene, as well as left tackle Wyatt Milum. If those two — specifically Greene — are unable to go, I become more skeptical of West Virginia. However, if they're healthy then I would recommend playing the Mountaineers.
There's a ton of uncertainty at the time of writing, which makes handicapping this game hard. For this reason, I’ll stick to the other side of the matchup, where I think Arizona can find success through the air.
Fifita may be turning the ball over often, but that isn’t stopping Arizona from throwing the ball plenty. Against what may be the worst secondary in the nation, I think Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan will connect often and have great games.
Fifita's passing prop sits at 262.5 passing yards this week at Caesars with the over at -109. I like taking this over and would bet it to over 275, as there’s a good chance Arizona throws the ball all over the field in this one.
Pick: Noah Fifita Over 262.5 Passing Yards (Play to 275)
West Virginia vs Arizona Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TVÂ /Â Streaming: | FS1 |
West Virginia will face Arizona in Tucson on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on FS1.
West Virginia vs Arizona Betting Trends
- 15% of bets and 13% of the money are on West Virginia to cover the spread.
- 95% of bets and 88% of the money on the moneyline are on Arizona to win outright.
- 65% of bets and 69% of the money are on the under.
West Virginia vs Arizona Weather
