On Saturday afternoon, the West Virginia Mountaineers (4-4, 3-2 Big 12) and Cincinnati Bearcats (5-3, 3-2) will clash in Cincinnati, Ohio, in a Big 12 battle. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on FS1.
Both teams are coming off a bye week, and this is a critical matchup for their bowl season aspirations.
The Mountaineers are coming off a 31-26 win against Arizona, whereas the Bearcats fell short against Colorado, 34-23, 2 weeks ago.
Both teams have drastic offensive styles, and it'll be interesting to see which team has the upper hand.
Oddsmakers have the Bearcats as 5-point home favorites with the total set at 56.5.
Let's take a look at my West Virginia vs Cincinnati predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 9.
West Virginia vs Cincinnati Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | +162 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 55 -110 / -110 | -195 |
- West Virginia vs Cincinnati Spread: West Virginia +4.5 · Cincinnati -4.5
- West Virginia vs Cincinnati Over/Under: 55 Points
- West Virginia vs Cincinnati Moneyline: West Virginia ML +162 · Cincinnati ML -195
West Virginia Mountaineers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Picks and Predictions
Prediction
My Cincinnat vs WVU best bet is on the Bearcats to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Moneyline
PASS
Against the Spread
West Virginia vs. Cincinnati Pick: Cincinnati -5
Over/Under
PASS
West Virginia Mountaineers vs Cincinnati Bearcats College Football Preview
West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview: Keep It On the Ground
Editor's Note: West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene will not start and will only be available as the Mountaineers' emergency quarterback, according to a report from ESPN's Pete Thamel. Nicco Marchiol will get the start.
It's been a disappointing season for the Mountaineers, as head coach Neal Brown's team appeared to be making strides as a program by overachieving last season. The lay of the land of the Big 12 is no picnic. Each team continues to beat up the other.
The most significant discrepancy between these teams is their offensive styles. The Mountaineers run the ball at a 60% clip, whereas their opponent only does so 51% of the time.
Quarterback Garrett Greene has had a roller-coaster type of season, doing some damage on the ground and through the air. The problem from Greene has been his ability to protect the ball, as he's tossed seven interceptions and lost three fumbles.
Regardless of the turnovers, the 'Neers are 74th in Rush Success Rate and 59th in Line Yards. That seems like it could be more impressive, but they get a boost in this matchup because the Bearcats have struggled mightily against opposing rushing attacks.
The offense is also top-15 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives, so its possessions have been productive when it enters opposing territory.
The defensive side of the ball has been a more significant issue, as it's been getting gashed through the air.
The Mountaineers have been elite in the defensive trench against the run, but that will only come into play a little because the Bearcats rely heavily on their passing attack.
WVU sits nearly dead last in Pass Success Rate Allowed and PFF Coverage grade, which is highly concerning when entering the matchup. Another concern is a ranking outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives Allowed.
Its special teams have been excellent, ranking inside the top 20 in that category. Despite being gashed through the air, it's 16th in tackling — an encouraging mark.
The Mountaineers' path to covering the number or winning outright is to lean on their rushing attack and play keep-away.
But that's asking an awful lot from the offense, and Greene has yet to prove that he can protect the football consistently. They've got a loaded running back room, but that's not enough to convince me they can cover the number on the road.
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview: Sorsby Primed for Big Day
The Bearcats took a tough loss at Colorado before the bye, and despite their defense holding up in the red zone a couple of times, they couldn't generate enough offense to come from behind.
However, head coach Scott Satterfield's team is heading in the right direction, needing only one more victory to secure a spot in bowl season.
I've never been the biggest Satterfield fan, especially since his days at Louisville, but he's done a fine job given the talent he's had to work with.
Quarterback Brendan Sorsby is having an extremely underrated season. He's the sole reason the Cats have a chance at a bowl game. The former Indiana Hoosier has thrown for over 2,100 yards with 15 touchdowns, and four interceptions.
The Cats rank seventh in the nation in Pass Success Rate and third in Quality Drives. They've sometimes been stagnant in the red zone, which is why they're 103rd in Finishing Drives.
However, they're getting a boost against the 'Neers, who have been horrific defensively against the pass and allow their opponents to score at will when they enter their territory.
West Virginia is stout defensively against the run, so I expect the Cats to bring a pass-heavy approach, which is not uncommon for their scheme.
The biggest key for Cincy on Saturday is its ability to stop the run. It's been gashed all season long, ranking outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards Allowed.
It's done an outstanding job defensively on the early downs, forcing opponents into tough third- and fourth-down situations.
If the Bearcats can bottle up the run on the early downs, that will allow their pass rushers to go to work. With a secondary that ranks 16th in PFF Coverage grade, they're set up for success if they can limit the explosive runs and keep the 'Neers out of manageable down and distances.
West Virginia vs Cincinnati Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Cincinnati match up statistically:
West Virginia Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 116 | |
| Pass Success | 73 | 76 |  |
| Havoc | 68 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 14 | 15 | |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 83 | |
Cincinnati Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 76 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 105 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 7 | 134 | |
| Havoc | 69 | 107 | |
| Finishing Drives | 103 | 126 | |
| Quality Drives | 3 | 93 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 16 | 91 |
| PFF Coverage | 134 | 36 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 19 | 70 |
| Middle 8 | 55 | 114 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (89) | 28.5 (100) |
| Rush Rate | 60% (26) | 51% (82) |
How to Make College Football Picks For My West Virginia vs Cincinnati Prediction
I like the Bearcats to get the job done at home here. Since opening, the line has begun to tick up a notch, which gives me a strong belief that they will cover the number.
Sorsby's matchup against the Mountaineers' horrific pass defense gives him a massive edge, and he should be able to find plenty of open receivers throughout the afternoon.
Cincinnati has been a terrific offensive team in terms of building consistent drives, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it slow down the tempo even more given the explosive rushing attack that's on the other sideline.
Stopping the run is absolutely critical here, so if the Bearcats can do that, they should be able to run away with a victory at home. I like the WVU's rushing attack, but it's not enough to sell me on its ability to keep up with Sorsby and Co.
Greene has been too careless with the ball for my liking, which will come into play here against a Cats team that has been excellent in third- and fourth-down situations.
Pick: Cincinnati -5 (Play to -6.5)
West Virginia vs Cincinnati Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 9 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
West Virginia heads to Ohio to take on Cincinnati on Saturday, Nov. 9 at 12 p.m. ET on FS1.
Cincinnati vs West Virginia Betting Trends to Watch
- 80% of bets and 69% of the money are on Cincinnati to cover the spread
- 88% of bets and 69% of the money on the moneyline are on Cincinnati to win outright
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Cincinnati vs West Virginia Weather
