West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 62 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 62 -110o / -110u | -320 |
The season started out promising for Oklahoma State, as it was 6-1 with its only loss coming to undefeated TCU in double overtime. At one point, the Cowboys were ranked as high as eighth in the AP Poll.
Since then, though, things have come crashing down. Oklahoma State now sits at 7-4 and has been reeling.
In the Cowboys' last four games, they were blown out by Kansas State, 48-0, lost to Kansas, 37-16, and fell in the last edition of Bedlam to Oklahoma, 28-13, in a game that was never really close.
They did defeat Iowa State just a couple of weeks ago, but it’s obvious that this team is not in a great place.
West Virginia, meanwhile, is not as talented as Oklahoma State, but it's been feisty at times.
Last weekend, the Mountaineers tried to go toe-to-toe with Kansas State’s offense but came up short. Right now, they sit at 4-7 without much hope of reaching a bowl game unless they win this weekend and there aren’t enough 6-6 teams to fill all of the spots — which is unlikely given their APR ranking.
This game will certainly be a test between two teams that may lack motivation without much to play for and with neither team being at full strength.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Mountaineers Offense
This West Virginia offense has been relatively efficient this year but has lacked explosiveness at times. Overall, the Mountaineers rank 37th in Success Rate and 41st in Points per Opportunity but just 89th in explosiveness.
With Graham Harrell as the offensive coordinator and Neal Brown as the head coach, it’s no shock that this team leans heavily into its passing game.
Through the air, it ranks 39th in Offensive Success Rate and 65th in PPA. The discrepancy between its Success Rate and PPA can largely be attributed to its complete lack of explosiveness. The Mountaineers rank 103rd in the country in passing explosiveness.
The team hopes it can change this with a switch at quarterback. Veteran starter J.T. Daniels was benched during the Oklahoma game in favor of sophomore signal-caller Garrett Greene. Greene provided a spark off the bench in that game as West Virginia came from behind to defeat the Sooners.
He had some success last weekend against Kansas State as well, throwing for 204 yards and three touchdowns against a strong Wildcats defense. Unfortunately for WVU, he did have two interceptions and his defense let him down, as the 31 points from the West Virginia offense were not enough to win.
If Greene truly can make a difference for this offense, I would expect WVU to be competitive again this weekend.
In the running game, the Mountaineers rank 33rd in Success Rate and 41st in PPA. They have a problem with explosiveness here as well, ranking 62nd.
Oklahoma State has had problems this season defending explosive rushing plays, so they could potentially find a way to break off some big plays here.
Mountaineers Defense
Defense has been the demise of this Mountaineers team that ranks 116th overall on the defensive side of the ball, according to SP+.
Their main issue has come in the secondary, where it ranks 129th in PFF’s coverage grades with a 45.7.
Overall, this team ranks 106th in Success Rate, 95th in explosiveness, 114th in Havoc and 67th in Points per Opportunity.
Its rushing defense is its strength, but that’s still not saying a lot. West Virginia ranks 80th in Success Rate against the run and 73rd in PPA. It does, however, rank an impressive 13th in PFF’s tackling grade.
Things have been even worse against the pass. The Mountaineers rank 109th in Success Rate and 108th in PPA against the pass. Oklahoma State’s passing offense isn’t great, but it still may be good enough to find success against this defense.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Cowboys Offense
Even though it's struggled over the last few weeks, this Oklahoma State offense is still regarded very highly. SP+ ranks this as the 12th-best offense in the country right now, but it hasn’t been living up to this billing.
The Cowboys rank 90th in Offensive Success Rate this season.
They're a more pass-heavy offense when veteran quarterback Spencer Sanders plays under center. Oklahoma State passes the ball at the 31st-highest rate in the nation but sits just 66th in Success Rate and 91st in PPA through the air.
On the ground, things look even worse. Oklahoma State ranks 109th in Success Rate, 97th in explosiveness and 93rd in PPA. This stems largely from its offensive line's terrible run blocking, which ranks 114th in the country.
Cowboys Defense
Like West Virginia, Oklahoma State’s downfall has also been because of its defense.
Losing defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and plenty of experience from last year’s team has knocked the Cowboys defense down a few notches. This is the 85th-ranked defense by SP+ this season.
Most of its issues have stemmed from allowing huge plays. The Pokes rank 44th in Success Rate but 119th in explosiveness, including 95th in explosiveness allowed against the pass and 96th against the run.
Big plays aren't the strength of West Virginia’s offense, but with this defense's tendency to allow them, they may end up playing a key role.
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
West Virginia Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 33 | 43 | |
| Line Yards | 64 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 49 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 33 | 44 | |
| Havoc | 34 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 41 | 63 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oklahoma State Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 109 | 80 | |
| Line Yards | 107 | 71 | |
| Pass Success | 66 | 109 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 88 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 108 | |
| Finishing Drives | 46 | 67 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 14 | 119 |
| PFF Coverage | 129 | 79 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 47 | 8 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.8 (49) | 21.5 (7) |
| Rush Rate | 50.1% (90) | 47.5% (105) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Betting Pick
Both of these teams fit a very similar profile, so it’s somewhat surprising to me that this line is as big as it is.
Greene may be the spark plug that West Virginia needs, and I think the Mountaineers will score at will against this Oklahoma State defense.
I don’t have as much faith in this Oklahoma State offense as I do in WVU’s due to the Cowboys’ recent struggles. For that reason, I think West Virginia can keep this game close and possibly even leave Stillwater with a victory.
Pick: West Virginia +9.5 (Play to +7) |
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