The West Virginia Mountaineers (2-2) and Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-2) will face off at Boone Pickens Stadium this Saturday afternoon. Kickoff in Stillwater is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Oklahoma State is currently a three-point home favorite on the spread in a game with a high total of 64.5.
These two teams have both flashed some offensive firepower this season, which leads me to my favorite bet on this game.
Let’s dive into my West Virginia vs Oklahoma State prediction and my college football picks for Saturday.
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Prediction
- West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Pick: Over 64.5
My West Virginia vs Oklahoma State best bet is on the over with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 64.5 -110 / -110 | +125 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 64.5 -110 / -110 | -150 |
- West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Point Spread: West Virginia +3 (-110) · Oklahoma State -3 (-110)
- West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Total: Over/Under 64.5
- West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Moneyline: West Virginia +125 · Oklahoma State -150
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Preview
West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview: Attack by Rushing it
The West Virginia Mountaineers are sitting at 2-2 on the season and are coming off a bye. They won their conference opener at home against Kansas and are looking to add on another Big 12 win on the road this time.
West Virginia ranks 55th in offensive success rate and 10th in finishing drives this year. It's 98th in Havoc and 58th in PFF pass blocking grade.
The Mountaineers are a strong rushing team this season. They rank 35th in rushing success rate, 28th in rushing PPA and 23rd in rushing explosiveness.
This offensive line ranks ninth in PFF run blocking grade, which has powered CJ Donaldson Jr. (284 yards), Garrett Greene (261 yards) and Jahiem White (179 yards) to all find success on the ground.
Greene hasn't been as effective through the air with seven touchdowns and four interceptions through four games, as well as being sacked eight times.
His EPA per drop back of 0.16 has been serviceable, but the Mountaineers rank 91st in passing success rate and 67th in passing PPA this year.
Defensively, the Mountaineers are 79th in success rate and 125th in finishing drives. Explosive plays have been an issue for them, as they're 133rd in explosiveness allowed, including 131st against the pass and 90th against the run.
It's the rushing defense for West Virginia that's been stronger this season. It ranks 44th in rushing success rate allowed and 35th in rushing PPA allowed. As for the passing defense, it's 105th in success rate allowed and 128th in passing PPA allowed.
Its secondary ranks 130th in FBS in PFF coverage grading this season, and it's 82nd in pass rush grade as well.
The good news for West Virginia is that all three of its FBS opponents to this point have top-50 offenses by success rate, and things may get easier from here.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Preview: Subpar Defense
Oklahoma State is 3-2 on the season but 0-2 in conference play. It's come up short against Utah and Kansas State to start its Big 12 slate.
The Cowboys also had a double-overtime victory against Arkansas this season that would've really had the fans in Stillwater worried if they hadn't pulled that one out in the end.
After many expected Oklahoma State to compete for the Big 12 title this season, the Cowboys haven't lived up to this billing yet. They rank 75th in offensive success rate but 46th in finishing drives and 29th in explosiveness.
Oklahoma State’s passing offense ranks 26th in success rate and 19th in passing PPA, which may pose issues for West Virginia’s secondary.
The Cowboys pass the ball 55% of the time, as their rushing game hasn't had much success. OSU ranks 122nd in rushing success rate and 98th in rushing PPA this season.
Defensively, the Cowboys are 56th in success rate and seventh in finishing drives. However, they're 130th in explosiveness. They're also 116th in rushing explosiveness allowed and 120th in passing explosiveness allowed, as they've been prone to big plays in both facets of defense.
They're consistent down-to-down on defense, as well. Oklahoma State ranks 55th in passing success rate allowed and 57th in passing PPA allowed. Against the run, it's 56th in rushing success rate allowed and 74th in rushing PPA allowed.
Oklahoma State’s run defense is ranked 101st by PFF, and it's 90th in tackling grade. It's also just 73rd in pass rush grade and 76th in coverage grade, so this defense doesn’t appear to be stellar in any manner.
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
West Virginia Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 30 | 73 | |
| Line Yards | 43 | 98 | |
| Pass Success | 88 | 67 | |
| Havoc | 96 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 6 |  |
| Quality Drives | 49 | 62 | |
Oklahoma State Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 130 | 43 | |
| Line Yards | 97 | 33 | |
| Pass Success | 55 | 128 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 124 | |
| Quality Drives | 113 | 81 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 23 | 88 |
| PFF Coverage | 132 | 71 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 33 | 57 |
| Middle 8 | 55 | 104 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.1 (44) | 22.1 (5) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (58) | 40% (124) |
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Pick & Prediction
West Virginia’s offensive line has been extraordinarily good, and it wants to run the ball often behind this front. This should work well against an Oklahoma State defense that's among the worst in the Big 12 in tackling and run defense grades.
I expect that the Mountaineers should be able to run the ball effectively in this matchup — as long as they aren’t in a negative game script from the start.
Oklahoma State’s bread and butter has been its passing attack. It's been very efficient through the air this season, and West Virginia has one of the worst secondaries in the country to his point.
Both defenses rank 130th or worse in offensive explosiveness allowed, with their worst facets matching their opponent’s main strength. Oklahoma State ranks fifth in seconds per play this season, while West Virginia is above average at 45th.
I trust Oklahoma State more in this matchup as a team, but my overall favorite bet is on this total, as I think we could see this game go well over the current number of 64.5 points.
I would take this total up to 65.5; 66 has been a moderately key number in CFB since 2017.
Pick: Over 64.5 (Play to 65.5)
How to Watch West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
West Virginia vs Oklahoma State Betting Trends
- 61% of the bets and 60% of the money is on Oklahoma State covering the spread against West Virginia.
- 74% of the bets and 96% of the money is on the under for this game.
- 93% of the bets are on Oklahoma State winning straight up.
