The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5, 6-2 Conference USA) and James Madison Dukes (8-4, 4-4 Sun Belt) square off in the Boca Raton Bowl on Wednesday, Dec. 18th. Kickoff is set for 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
There has been significant market variance in this one, as James Madison opened as a 6.5-point favorite and quickly rose to -9.5 after news broke about key Western Kentucky starters opting out.
However, this marks the third year in a row this situation has played out for WKU, and once again, it appears that all of the Hilltoppers' key contributors who have entered the transfer portal will play in this game.
The line has dropped back down accordingly, as James Madison enters as a -7 favorite with an over/under of 51.
Both of these teams are coming off down points in their seasons and will be looking for a rebound to carry momentum into the offseason.
Let's dive into my Western Kentucky vs. James Madison predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Dec. 18.
Western Kentucky vs James Madison Prediction
- Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Pick: James Madison -6.5
My James Madison vs. Western Kentucky best bet is on the Dukes to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Kentucky vs James Madison Odds
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 51 -110 / -110 | +220 |
| James Madison Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 51 -110 / -110 | -270 |
- Western Kentucky vs James Madison Spread: Western Kentucky +7 (-110) · James Madison -7 (-110)
- Western Kentucky vs James Madison Over/Under: 51
- Western Kentucky vs James Madison Moneyline: Western Kentucky +220 · James Madison -270
Western Kentucky vs James Madison Preview
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview: Portal Participation
Western Kentucky won its final regular-season game of the season over Jacksonville State to secure a spot in the Conference USA Championship, setting up a rematch between the Hilltoppers and Gamecocks.
The rematch was vastly different from the first matchup, as WKU struggled mightily to move the ball while putting up an extremely lackluster defensive effort.
The run defense gave up 386 yards on 6.9 yards per carry and was consistently caught out of position most of the night — a recurring theme over the last five weeks of the regular season.
Action Network's Stuckey has reported in his 2024 college football bowl opt-outs and transfer portal tracker that WKU has 21 players who have entered the transfer portal.
However, more than any other team in America, the Tops have proven over the years that just because players have entered the portal, it doesn't necessarily reflect their participation status for the bowl game. In fact, starting quarterback Caden Veltkamp has already been confirmed to play after entering the portal.
The concern will be how many other starters and key contributors will play. That participation report will be exceptionally critical for the defensive side of the ball.
James Madison Dukes Betting Preview: Key Advantage on Ground
James Madison put together a solid season in Year 1 under head coach Bob Chesney. The Dukes opened up 4-0 in nonconference action, capped off by putting up 70 points against North Carolina in Chapel Hill in September.
At times, we saw this team look as impressive as any in the Sun Belt, but we also saw puzzling road losses at ULM and Georgia Southern. This team ran out of steam late in the year, culminating with a complete second-half collapse against Marshall in a double-overtime loss.
JMU quarterback Alonza Barnett proved to be electric when he was on his “A” game, throwing for 26 touchdowns to just four interceptions while adding seven rushing scores.
He was hurt late in the year and will miss this bowl game due to injury.
With Barnett out, the Dukes will have to take advantage of their edge on the ground against a weak and worn-down Western Kentucky run defense.
Luckily for James Madison, it can hang its hat on the ground game in this matchup, as running backs George Pettaway and Wayne Knight are explosive and consistently hit the hole hard. Both backs average six yards per carry.
With an unproven quarterback leading the charge, I would expect a run-heavy game plan that attacks Western Kentucky where its biggest weakness is.
Western Kentucky grades out poorly in most defensive rush metrics, including EPA Per Rush allowed (123rd) and Rush Success Rate allowed (111th).
Even when playing meaningful football squarely in the Conference USA Championship race, the Hilltoppers couldn't stop the run down the stretch with any regularity. Over its last five games, WKU surrendered 314 yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry.
It was extremely concerning to see the lack of effort by the Tops in the Conference USA Championship game, I could really see this defense struggling again in Boca Raton.
Western Kentucky vs James Madison Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Western Kentucky and James Madison match up statistically:
Western Kentucky Offense vs. James Madison Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 11 | |
| Line Yards | 91 | 16 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 7 | |
| Havoc | 60 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 45 | |
| Quality Drives | 74 | 15 | |
James Madison Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 119 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 120 | |
| Pass Success | 96 | 102 | |
| Havoc | 44 | 121 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 69 | 32 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 13 | 70 |
| PFF Coverage | 91 | 17 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 14 | 41 |
| Middle 8 | 84 | 84 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.1 (17) | 27.2 (72) |
| Rush Rate | 50% (97) | 57% (54) |
Western Kentucky vs James Madison Pick & Prediction
There are so many variables in this matchup, and this is a great example of why it can be important to wait until players are confirmed in or out for their bowl games. With how things are currently set up, I like James Madison -6.5.
While Veltkamp will play this matchup, numerous offensive starters have not confirmed their playing status. Not having a full platoon available would set back an already struggling offense.
WKU has averaged only 15 points per game and 310 yards per game over its last four contests, and the Toppers have really struggled to run the rock. In fact, they've averaged just 91 yards and 3.3 yards per carry over that stretch.
James Madison graded out 14th nationally in Success Rate allowed, and the Dukes have been excellent in early downs. JMU ranks 11th nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 42nd in EPA Per Rush allowed, so there's really no clear path for WKU on the ground here.
The Tops will likely be forced to throw the ball a ton here — something we're used to seeing from a Western Kentucky offense but not something we've seen a lot of this year.
Pass coverage has been a strength for JMU this season. The Dukes sit 30th nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and 31st in EPA Per Pass allowed.
The secondary has secured 17 interceptions and 45 pass breakups on the season, and lockdown coverage has helped the defensive line get home against opposing quarterbacks.
Look for JMU to shut down this WKU passing attack and force too many negative plays for the Tops to consistently sustain drives.
Pick: James Madison -6.5 (Play to -7)
How to Watch Western Kentucky vs James Madison Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, Dec. 18 |
| Kickoff Time: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Western Kentucky faces James Madison in the Boca Raton Bowl on Wednesday, Dec. 18 at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
