The calendar has turned to October, and we are much closer to every week's MACtion on Tuesday nights.
The Western Michigan Broncos (1-3) travel to Muncie, Indiana, on Saturday afternoon to take on the Ball State Cardinals (1-3, 0-1).
Oddsmakers make the Broncos a 9.5-point favorite, and the total is 56.5. Let's see the betting breakdown below for Saturday afternoons between the Broncos and Cardinals.
Let's get to my Western Michigan vs Ball State prediction.
Western Michigan vs Ball State Prediction
My Western Michigan vs Ball State best bet is for WMU to cover the spread. I'm backing Western Michigan at -9.5 and would play that to -10.5.
Western Michigan vs Ball State Odds
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 / -110 | -340 |
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 / -110 | +270 |
- Western Michigan vs Ball State Point Spread: Western Michigan -9.5 (-110) · Ball State +9.5 (-110)
- Western Michigan vs Ball State Total: Over/Under 56.5
- Western Michigan vs Ball State Moneyline: Western Michigan -340 · Ball State +270
Western Michigan vs Ball State Preview
Western Michigan Broncos Betting Preview: Time To Bounce Back
Before the lines came out, I knew Western Michigan would be on my radar after last week's loss to Marshall. The Broncos did not deserve to win, but they could have snuck away with a victory.
The offensive discrepancy between these teams is massive, as I've always been fond of quarterback Hayden Wolff. Wolff, the former Old Dominion transfer, has put up solid numbers thus far in 2024.
Wolff has 596 passing yards, four touchdown Passes, and one interception thus far. The Broncos rank 77th in Pass Success Rate, although I see that number climbing.
The Broncos run the ball 64% of the time, and why wouldn't you, with running back Jaden Dixon getting the bulk of the carries? Dixon is averaging over 7 YPC thus far and has a dream matchup against a Cardinal defense that ranks 130th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
They've also done a great job at keeping Wolff clean in the pocket, ranking 22nd in Havoc allowed. Going up against a Cardinals defense that may as well line up a bunch of traffic cones on the defensive line is a dream matchup for the offense to bounce back.
Several issues need to be addressed defensively. The defensive unit ranks outside the bottom 100 in most defensive metrics, including Rush and Pass Success Rate allowed.
Despite the Cardinals' poor defense performance thus far, many of those metrics are inflated due to their early season matchups against Wisconsin (with a healthy Graham Mertz) and Ohio State. The Cardinals' offense is also broken, so there may be little to worry about.
At the end of the day, I trust the offense to score at will, and I think Wolff can have a big day if the Cardinals' defense crams the trench to contain Dixon in the early going.
Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview: Struggles On Both Sides
The Cardinals have not had the most manageable schedule thus far, but their defense has been gashed through four games. They've allowed every opponent to score 34 points or greater, including an FCS Missouri State team.
They were destroyed by JMU last week 63-7 and allowed over eight yards per play. It might seem like they are finally catching a break with a 1-3 Broncos team coming to town, but I am afraid that is not the case.
The defensive numbers are atrocious, and the Broncos, in my opinion, have the second-best or best offensive unit in the MAC. The Cardinals are already 0-1 in conference play and are well on their way to 0-2.
If you look at their defensive metrics below, you can see how awful they are. They're outside the bottom 125 in almost every category besides Havoc, in which they are still ranked 100th.
They can not and will not get stops against the Broncos, so the question is if their offense can backdoor them into a cover. It is a plus matchup for the offense, but their metrics have been putrid thus far as well.
The biggest issue for the offense has been the offensive line, as quarterback Kadin Semonza has taken 14 sacks thus far. If you eliminate his five interceptions, Semonza will have a decent stat line, as he's thrown seven touchdown passes and 753 yards thus far.
The offense rarely runs the ball and moves at a snail's pace. It is a plus matchup against a bad Broncos secondary, but they'll be unable to keep up throughout the matchup.
The Broncos' running game could easily dominate T.O.P., making it difficult for their offense to keep up.
Western Michigan vs Ball State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Western Michigan and Ball State match up statistically:
Western Michigan Offense vs. Ball State Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 44 | 130 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 133 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 134 | |
| Havoc | 22 | 100 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 134 | |
| Quality Drives | 99 | 132 | |
Ball State Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 80 | 128 | |
| Line Yards | 86 | 118 | |
| Pass Success | 113 | 116 |  |
| Havoc | 122 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 93 | 123 | |
| Quality Drives | 98 | 128 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 75 | 121 |
| PFF Coverage | 84 | 133 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 90 | 93 |
| Middle 8 | 108 | 132 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.1 (81) | 29.1 (103) |
| Rush Rate | 64% (14) | 47% (118) |
Western Michigan vs Ball State Pick & Prediction
The Broncos are a sleeper in the MAC and are flying under the radar due to their 1-3 non-conference start. They have the offense to outscore anybody in the MAC, but their defense will be a question mark moving forward.
That said, I like the Broncos laying the number on the road. The Cardinals have a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, and their defense has been demolished through four games.
Semonza has some talent at quarterback, but he turns the ball over too much for my liking, and his offensive line will continue to hang him out to dry. The Broncos should score at will, and I think the Cardinals will need help to backdoor the number despite what appears to be a plus matchup for their offense.
Pick: Western Michigan -9.5 (Play to -10.5)
How to Watch Western Michigan vs Ball State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Scheumann Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 2 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Western Michigan vs Ball State Betting Trends
- Western Michigan is 1-3 SU and ATS
- Ball State is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS
- Ball State games are 4-0 to the Over
