The chaos of the SEC receives much of the weekly attention, but the MAC would like a word. Four teams sit atop the league with 4-1 conference records.
Two of those teams face off Tuesday, with conference championship favorite Bowling Green (5-4, 4-1 MAC) playing host to Western Michigan (5-4, 4-1) — both teams whose only MAC loss is to Northern Illinois (the Huskies’ only conference wins of the season).
Western Michigan fell from MAC pole position last week with its 42-28 loss at home to Northern Illinois after winning 4 straight to open its conference slate. Bowling Green has won 3 in a row since losing to NIU and arrive at tonight’s matchup with a more impressive resume that includes single-digit losses to both Penn State (34-27) and Texas A&M (26-20).
The loser of this game is likely eliminated from MAC contention. Can the Falcons stay in the title hunt with a win by at least eight points?
Let's take a look at my Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Nov. 12.
Western Michigan Football vs. Bowling Green Football Prediction
- Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Pick: Bowling Green -8
My Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Odds, Spread
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | +275 |
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | -345 |
- Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Spread: Bowling Green -9.5 · Western Michigan +9.5
- Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Over/Under: 57.5 Total Points
- Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Moneyline: Bowling Green ML -345, Western Michigan ML +275
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Bowling Green Falcons Week 12 Preview
Western Michigan Broncos Betting Preview
Western Michigan’s short reign atop the MAC came to an end last week in a style of game that's all too familiar for the Broncos: a high-scoring affair.
It was the third time in the last five games that Western Michigan allowed over 40 points, which hadn’t been a problem for the MAC’s top-scoring team. The Broncos average 33.3 points per game and have scored nine more touchdowns than any other team int he conference.
Despite being an offense that runs at the 16th-highest rate in the FBS, the Broncos are most efficient when it comes to moving the ball through the air.
Quarterback Hayden Wolff has the highest yards per attempt (8.3) among qualified MAC passers and has the Broncos ranked 16th in Pass Success Rate.
Western Michigan ranks only 56th in Rush Success Rate, but this is where it does the majority of its work. Three players have over 400 yards rushing, led by running back Jaden Nixon, whose 847 yards rushing are more than 150 higher than the next closest MAC running back.
Possessing a conference-leading offense has been needed, however, with all of the Broncos’ defensive struggles.
Western Michigan sits outside the top 100 in both Rush and Pass Success Rate allowed, and it ranks 10th in the conference in total defense.
The Broncos have allowed over 400 yards of offense in three of their last four games and have only held one team all season to below 21 points.
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview
Closely-contested games against Penn State and Texas A&M weren’t just Power 4 teams overlooking a Group of Five opponent. The Falcons have proven their worth in conference and are now the odds-on favorite to hoist the MAC Championship trophy.
Key to Bowling Green’s success is the elevated play of quarterback Connor Bazelak. The former Indiana and Missouri passer leads MAC quarterbacks with a 68.2% completion percentage, the highest mark as a full-time starter in his career.
Bazelak has a clear favorite target in Harold Fannin Jr. Arguably the best tight end in college football, Fannin is the only tight end and one of three players in FBS with over 1,000 yards receiving, along with 73 receptions that rank fourth nationally.
The Bowling Green defense is a respectable unit that has held three of its past four opponents below 300 yards of total offense.
A clear area of strength for the Falcons defense is its secondary. Bowling Green ranks second in the MAC with 168.3 passing yards allowed per game. The Falcons have only allowed one of their past five opponents to score a passing touchdown.
Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Western Michigan match up statistically:
Western Michigan Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 56 | 52 |  |
| Line Yards | 57 | 118 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 92 | |
| Finishing Drives | 20 | 53 | |
| Quality Drives | 48 | 69 | |
Bowling Green Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 90 | 118 | |
| Line Yards | 60 | 92 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 131 | |
| Havoc | 112 | 75 | |
| Finishing Drives | 81 | 132 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 117 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 89 | 31 |
| PFF Coverage | 90 | 50 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 33 | 59 |
| Middle 8 | 73 | 38 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.8 (85) | 30.2 (125) |
| Rush Rate | 61% (22) | 53% (81) |
How to Make Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Picks
While both teams own similar conference resumes, how they’ve gotten there is completely different.
Western Michigan has been involved in a high-scoring nailbiter seemingly every week, while Bowling Green has rounded into form, not playing in a single-score game since the first week of October.
Both teams have strong passing attacks, but the Falcons have a clear defensive edge.
The only MAC team with a better pass defense than Bowling Green is Northern Illinois, which just held the Broncos to 179 passing yards en route to Western Michigan dropping its first conference game of the season.
I see the Falcons giving similar fits to Wolff and the Broncos, while Bazelak and Fannin have another big day. A porous Western Michigan defense continues to rear its ugly head as the Falcons cover the spread.
Pick: Bowling Green -8
Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Streaming, How to Watch, Channel, Location
| Location: | Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, Nov. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Western Michigan faces Bowling Green on the road on Tuesday, Nov. 12 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Weather
