We're heading out to the lovely Piscataway, New Jersey, where the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-1) look to rebound after their first loss of the season. The Knights wrestled offensively all afternoon long against Nebraska, but their defensive effort was valiant in a 14-7 loss.
The Wisconsin Badgers will bring a 3-2 record into Piscataway, and they completely dismantled the Purdue Boilermakers last week, 52-6 win. The Badgers scored 52 points on offense, and quarterback Braedyn Locke threw three touchdown passes.
The Badgers enter the road contest as 2.5-point underdogs, and the total is 41.5.
Here's my Wisconsin vs Rutgers predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Wisconsin vs Rutgers Odds, Lines, Pick
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 44 -110 / -110 | +102 |
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 44 -110 / -110 | -122 |
- Wisconsin vs Rutgers spread: Rutgers -1.5
- Wisconsin vs Rutgers over/under: 44 points
- Wisconsin vs Rutgers moneyline: Rutgers -122
- Wisconsin vs Rutgers pick: Wisconsin +2.5
Wisconsin vs Rutgers Preview
Wisconsin Football
The Badgers' offensive metrics are more impressive than I thought. They lost QB Tyler Van Dyke during the Alabama game due to injury, and Locke has been handed the keys to the offense ever since.
Locke's numbers entering the season were awful, and there have been many moments during his collegiate career when you wondered if he had ever thrown a football. But Locke deserves some flowers, as he's completing 58% of his passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions.
OC Phil Longo is a well-respected coordinator in the college ranks, so he may be the sole reason Locke has looked a lot better thus far.
Given how bad the Boilermakers are, I am taking last week's results with a grain of salt.
The most significant edge I see entering the game against Rutgers is the Wisconsin offensive line. The Badgers are in the top 40 in rushing success rate, line yards and Havoc allowed.
They are getting a push up-front, and the Knights' defense ranks outside the bottom 100 in all those categories.
RB Cade Yacamelli has 26 rushes on the season but averages 7.38 YPC. Tawee Walker has handled most of the workload, but with Yacamelli's success, I expect him to start being implemented more in the offensive game plan.
Something's got to give with the offense, as the Knights rank inside the top 10 in both defensive finishing and quality drives.
The defensive trench has been pushed around thus far, despite a strong effort against a bad Boilermakers team last week. They rank 87th in defensive Havoc and 94th in line yards.
They are also 110th in defensive finishing drives and 70th in quality drives, so their opponents have been having their way for the most part whenever their defense is on the field. They are fifth in PFF Tackling and 23rd in coverage and should have a significant special teams edge.
The defense will be crucial in whether or not the Badgers can cover the number. I love Locke's matchup with the offense, although I am skeptical that he can continue his success.
Rutgers Football
Sing us a song, Schiano Man. HC Greg Schiano has revitalized the Rutgers football program, and now it has a golden opportunity to start season 5-1 on Saturday.
The offense was mostly a no-show last week, falling to Nebraska 14-7. The defense stepped up big-time, though, especially in the red zone.
QB Athan Kaliakmanis has been spectacular thus far, with seven touchdowns and an interception. It also helps that you have the most underrated RB in the country, Kyle Monangai, who has six rushing touchdowns and 549 rushing yards.
The Knights have excellent offensive metrics thus far, ranking inside the top 50 in the following categories:
- Rush and Pass Success Rate
- Line Yards
- Havoc
- Finishing and Quality Drives
They run the ball 61% of the time and are 100th in tempo. It is a very efficient, methodical offense.
Defensively, their line has trouble creating pressure, and they've been pushed around thus far. They are 120th in rushing success rate and 112th in line yards.
That spells trouble against a strong Wisconsin offensive line and rushing attack. They've been excellent at limiting quality drives and have been strong in the red zone.
They are 13th in passing success rate and run a 4-2-5 scheme. Why is that significant, you ask?
Well, Alabama runs a 4-2-5 defense. Locke looked lost for most of the game when he entered after Van Dyke's injury.
Not to compare the Knights' defensive unit with Alabama's, but that is worth monitoring throughout the game. I think it is a good spot for Rutgers to bounce back at home, but I am skeptical about their defense holding up against the run.
Wisconsin vs Rutgers Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wisconsin and Rutgers match up statistically:
Wisconsin Offense vs. Rutgers Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 112 | |
| Pass Success | 68 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 35 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 37 | 8 | |
| Quality Drives | 86 | 10 | |
Rutgers Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 23 | 62 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 94 | |
| Pass Success | 18 | 82 | |
| Havoc | 19 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 48 | 110 | |
| Quality Drives | 49 | 70 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 5 | 45 |
| PFF Coverage | 23 | 18 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 51 | 98 |
| Middle 8 | 106 | 66 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (55) | 28.8 (100) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (44) | 61% (10) |
Wisconsin vs Rutgers Prediction
Given that the majority of the bets and money were on the Knights as of Thursday morning, I hope we get more steam on the current line.
If Wisconsin gets to +3, I would highly suggest snagging that.
With the current total set at 41.5, the expectation with the current spread suggests we are in for a tight ball game. Given how low the total is, the key number of three is even larger than normal.
I think both offenses will succeed here, but I trust the Wisconsin defense a tad bit more at the moment. I am curious to see how the market develops before kickoff, but for now, I would wait for a +3 number to pop up.
Locke concerns me against the 4-2-5 defense, but I think the Badgers will do enough damage on the ground to keep the game close.
Pick: Wisconsin +2.5 or Better (Wait for +3)
Wisconsin vs Rutgers Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | SHI Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Wisconsin takes on Rutgers at SHI Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 12, at 12 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Wisconsin vs Rutgers Betting Trends
- Wisconsin is 1-4 in its last five games against the spread.
- The total has gone over in three of Wisconsin's last five games.
- Rutgers is 3-1 in its last five games against the spread
- The total has gone over in two of Rutgers' last five games.
Wisconsin vs Rutgers Weather
