The Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) play their first-ever conference game in Los Angeles when they battle the No. 14 USC Trojans (2-1, 0-1 Big Ten) on Saturday, Sept. 28 at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
This marks the seventh meeting between these two programs and the first since 2015, when the Badgers beat the Trojans in the Holiday Bowl.
As for the present day, both Wisconsin and USC are coming off losses in marquee games, so both will be looking to get back on track and pick up some momentum in Big Ten play.
USC enters as a -15 favorite on the spread with an over/under of 51.
Here's a look at my Wisconsin vs. USC predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 28.
Wisconsin vs USC Odds
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 / -112 | +440 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 / -112 | -600 |
- Wisconsin vs USC spread: USC -15.5
- Wisconsin vs USC over/under: 51 points
- Wisconsin vs USC moneyline: USC -725
- Wisconsin vs USC pick: USC -15.5
My USC vs Wisconsin best bet is on the Trojans to cover, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Wisconsin vs USC Betting Preview
Wisconsin Football
Losing to Alabama, 42-10, is bad, and losing your starting quarterback in the process is even worse.
Badgers quarterback Tyler Van Dyke suffered a torn ACL in that loss to Bama, so now Wisconsin turns to backup Braedyn Locke to lead the way for the rest of the season.
Locke actually played in five games last year with OK production, as he completed 50% of his passes for 777 yards, five touchdowns and one pick in that time.
Still, the Badgers scored 20 points just once in the four games where Locke got significant run last year — and that was with Braelon Allen toting the rock.
Locke will need to play better than he did in 2023 to give Wisconsin a chance in this game because it ranks 79th in Passing Success Rate, and its only real target is wide receiver Will Pauling.
The Badgers are at least 19th in Rushing Success Rate, but they racked up only 3.6 yards per carry against the Crimson Tide. It remains to be seen just how good Wisconsin can run the ball against Big Ten competition.
This Badgers team also doesn't have a particularly strong defense. With rankings of 88th in Pass Success Rate Allowed, 103rd in Rush Success Allowed and 125th in Havoc, this just doesn't look like the stingy Wisconsin defenses of the recent past.
Even though giving up 42 points to Alabama is forgivable, allowing 27 combined points (not in garbage time) to Western Michigan and South Dakota is concerning.
USC Football
Hey, look at that! Lincoln Riley discovered that defense is important!
While the Wisconsin defense has dropped 0ff, the Trojans are having their best defensive season in years.
Credit Riley for letting go of former defensive coordinator Alex Grinch and heading across town to replace him with former UCLA DC D'Anton Lynn. He and former NDSU head coach-turned-USC linebackers coach Matt Entz have reformed the Trojan defense.
Just look at the numbers. After surrendering a ghastly 34.4 points per game last season, USC allowed 20 offensive points to LSU and Michigan, and shut out Utah State.
Those performances are a clear step above what the Trojans did in the first two years under Riley, and the advanced metrics tell the same tale. USC now ranks 36th in both Passing and Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
Had the Trojans played at this defensive level the past two seasons, Caleb Williams and Riley likely would have been in the national title hunt.
Speaking of Williams, his replacement, Miller Moss, is doing a good job filling his shoes.
He's thrown for 890 yards, five touchdowns and one interception, and his game against Michigan last weekend in the Big House was pretty impressive.
Moss is effectively spreading the ball out as well, as four of his targets already have at least 100 receiving yards.
Overall, this is the most complete USC team under Riley — and quite possibly the most complete team he's ever coached. It might not be his best team, but it's the most complete.
Wisconsin vs USC Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wisconsin and USC match up statistically:
Wisconsin Offense vs. USC Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 36 | |
| Line Yards | 64 | 84 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 91 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 73 | 22 | |
USC Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 103 | |
| Line Yards | 17 | 89 | |
| Pass Success | 56 | 88 | |
| Havoc | 74 | 125 | |
| Finishing Drives | 59 | 102 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 88 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 60 | 24 |
| PFF Coverage | 79 | 58 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 66 | 33 |
| Middle 8 | 127 | 44 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.6 (69) | 25.8 (37) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (39) | 38% (128) |
Wisconsin vs USC Prediction
USC has what it takes to win this game comfortably. The Trojans' performance at Michigan was commendable, and they should be able to take their frustrations out at home against Wisconsin.
I shudder to think of what Riley has in store for a below-average Badgers defense. Plus, USC's defense is now good enough to give its offense more breathing room.
Look for USC to pull away early and show why this game has such a big spread. Take the Trojans to cover at home.
Pick: USC -15.5 (Play to -16)
How to Watch Wisconsin vs USC Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | L.A. Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Wisconsin vs USC Betting Trends
- USC has landed 59% of the tickets and generated 76% of the money.
- The under has taken 35% of the bets but produced 43% of the cash.
Wisconsin vs USC Weather
