Oregon vs. Wisconsin Odds
- Odds: Wisconsin -3
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Time: 5 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: Pasadena, Calif.
Badgers. Ducks. Granddaddy of Them All.
It doesn't get much better than this.
Big Ten runner-up Wisconsin and Pac-12 champion Oregon will meet in the 2020 Rose Bowl on Wednesday afternoon, the third game on a four-game slate.
The Ducks boast a much-improved and balanced defense, while Wisconsin will as always rely on its ground attack and disruptive defense to lead the charge.
Who has the edge in the Rose Bowl? Let's break it down.
Odds as of Tuesday night and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
How Rose Bowl Lines Have Moved
Wisconsin-Oregon opened as a pick'em, but it immediately moved in the Badgers' favor to -2.5, then later to -3. Almost 60% of bets have landed on the Ducks since.
The total has risen from 49.5 to 51.5 thanks to 96% of money hitting the over.
Trench Test for Oregon
The difference in the Pac-12 Championship game was Oregon’s ability to shut down Utah on fourth down. The Ducks were successful against the Utes in all four attempts at fourth and short, an amazing feat considering Oregon was defensively ranked 50th in stuff rate and 29th in power success.
And those statistical categories are of most importance against the Wisconsin rushing attack.
Running back Jonathan Taylor has been a Heisman hopeful the last two years for the Badgers thanks in part to a stellar offensive line. Wisconsin is 11th in rushing success rank highlighted by a top 20 rank in line yards, stuff rate and power success.
Oregon has had a tremendous uptick in defensive numbers thanks to new defensive coordinator Andy Avalos, but the Wisconsin trench is the best Oregon defenders have seen all season. — Collin Wilson
Early Pace Will Be Key
Our Action Network projections make this game a pick'em, which does point to a little value on Oregon. But I'm looking at the total instead.
Offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo will call the plays for Oregon even after he accepted the head coaching job at UNLV.
Arroyo is a conservative play caller, with a limit on passing plays during standard downs. Oregon is 26th in standard downs rate with an explosiveness rank of 65th.
The Ducks offense is one of the best in passing downs, a clear correlation to having one of the best quarterbacks in the nation with Justin Herbert. The Ducks improve to 13th in passing downs success rate and 23rd in explosiveness.
Wisconsin has elected to pass in standard downs in recent games, but a seconds per play rank of 128th along with strong offensive ground numbers indicate this game could be low scoring to start.
Quarterback Jack Coan is capable of picking up the pace, but the Badgers should establish the rush and use the pass only in trailing situations.
Look for a first half under while live trading both Wisconsin and Oregon outside of +3 in live wagering.
Pick: Under 1H 24.5
