Wyoming vs Fresno State Odds
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +460 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
Fresno State and Wyoming share the same overall record at 7-4 this season. But Fresno State has found most of its success against Mountain West opponents, which has led to its fifth Mountain West Championship appearance since 2013.
The Bulldogs opened the season with a 1-4 record as star quarterback Jake Haener was sidelined due to injury. Haener has since returned, and the program ripped off six victories in a row. The winning streak has come against bottom-tier opponents, but the Bulldogs have won those six matches by an average of 20 points per game.
Wyoming has found itself comfortably in bowl season after winning four games in a row against the bottom of the barrel of the Mountain West. It’s coming off a three-point loss to Boise State after entering as underdogs of more than two touchdowns.
Fresno’s offense has been on fire for the past three weeks. Does Wyoming have the firepower to keep up in this matchup?
Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming football has found success this season behind its usual approach to a season. It's leaned on its run-heavy offense to allow its defense to overwhelm its opponent.
That led the group to a 7-4 record thanks to a four-game win streak against four opponents that rank outside the top 110 in the country. The streak was snapped last time out, losing to Boise State, 20-17.
But the game plan didn’t change: Lean on the run game, and allow the defense to do its thing.
Wyoming’s offense runs the ball on 62% of plays which ranks 10th in the nation. The Cowboys have leaned on bellcow running back Titus Swen, who is averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season. He’s poised to surpass 1,000 yards rushing on the season in this matchup, sitting just 36 yards shy.
Swen kept Wyoming in the game against Boise State, as he rushed for 212 yards on just 19 carries — good for 11 yards per rush.
Quarterback Andrew Peasley missed the game against Boise after a head injury against Colorado State. His replacement, Jayden Clemons, couldn’t have been worse, completing the same number of passes to his own team as the opponent.
Clemons completed just 3-of-16 passes for 30 yards and three interceptions. I anticipate Peasley to be back for this matchup, but if not, it will turn into a blowout quickly.
Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno State’s offense has been firing on all cylinders over the last five matchups. During that span, the Bulldogs have averaged 41 points per game thanks to the Air Raid offense.
Haener is the captain of the offense and has put up video game numbers since his return. The senior quarterback has completed 75% of his 255 passes this season while averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. He’s tossed 16 touchdowns to three interceptions and has put up 321 yards passing per game.
Despite the impeccable passing numbers, Fresno owns a passing rate of just 52% this season. Much of that is attributed to the time Haener missed, but the rushing attack has averaged just shy of four yards per carry this season against FBS opponents.
The Fresno defense will be focused on slowing down the Wyoming rushing attack. This will be a good test for the Bulldogs with a matchup against a run-heavy Boise State program in the Mountain West Championship looming.
The Bulldogs have allowed 4.6 yards per carry on the season, which ranks 98th in the nation.
Wyoming vs Fresno State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wyoming and Fresno State match up statistically:
Wyoming Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 57 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 88 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 47 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 19 | 121 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 78 | 37 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Fresno State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 96 | |
| Line Yards | 75 | 110 | |
| Pass Success | 11 | 27 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 103 | 111 | |
| Havoc | 44 | 81 | |
| Finishing Drives | 50 | 61 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 130 | 81 |
| PFF Coverage | 65 | 29 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 37 | 60 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.2 (116) | 27.0 (82) |
| Rush Rate | 63.0% (11) | 49.1% (96) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Wyoming vs Fresno State Betting Pick
The Fresno offense has been one of the best units over the last month, averaging 41 points per game.
The Bulldogs have continued to dominate, scoring on over 70% of their offensive drives during that span. That trend is set to continue, thanks to Haener and the Air Raid offense.
Wyoming’s secondary has been prone to struggle against pass-heavy offenses this season. Tulsa passed for 460 yards, while both Boise and San Jose State eclipsed the 300-yard mark.
The Cowboys have allowed seven yards per pass attempt this season while matching up with many run-heavy offenses.
The recent success for Wyoming has come against the bottom tier of the conference, so the step up in class against Fresno State won’t bode well for the program.
The only concern I have is a potential letdown for Fresno, which has already solidified its position in the Mountain West Championship. But the Bulldogs will use this game as a tune-up, as Wyoming runs a very similar offensive style as Boise State.
Pick: Fresno State -14.5 (Play to -16) |
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