Wyoming vs Hawaii Odds
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -410 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +315 |
Don't look now, but Wyoming and Hawaii have been two of the best bets in college football over the last month and change.
The Cowboys are 5-2 against the spread since suffering an opening-week drubbing to Illinois, while the Warriors have ripped off five covers in the previous six.
Wyoming hasn't been a double-digit betting favorite since Nov. 27 of last season — against this same Hawaii club.
Should the Cowboys be laying this much chalk, or is it time to fire on the 'dog?
Here's the best bet on the spread, and why there's value on one side.
Wyoming Cowboys
The Cowboys clock in at No. 103 in our own Collin Wilson's Power Ratings.
Wyoming has won each of the last two games as favorites, and the offense racked up a season-high 529 yards in its most recent win against Utah State.
Offensively, Wyoming loves keeping the ball on the ground.
Junior running back Titus Swen's popped off seven touchdowns for a unit ranking No. 18 nationally in Rush Rate.
The push up front has been superb — especially for a Mountain West program — as the Cowboys are inside the top 40 in Line Yards.
Craig Bohl's pass defense, in particular, has been fantastic over the last couple games, allowing roughly 115 yards through the air. The Cowboys do struggle against teams out in open space, however, as they're the third-worst tackling team nationally.
Hawaii Warriors
Hawaii owned the worst overall scoring margin in the country through three games (-131).
Although there was only one place to go, it hasn't been that bad for Timmy Chang's club since.
The Warriors have ripped off five covers in their last six, including three straight as 'dogs. Hawaii blew a 13-3 lead last week to Colorado State, but did manage to cover as six-point pups.
Hawaii has been accustomed to playing in a negative game script all season. Yet, it still hasn't padded the offense's stats.
The Warriors are 25th nationally in Pass Rate and can chuck, but they're averaging a measly 4.8 yards per play.
The opposing schedule of offenses — especially early — probably hurts the Warriors' defensive peripherals a bit. Still, they aren't much better than Wyoming at tackling (127th) and they get absolutely zero push up front, ranking bottom-15 in both Havoc and Line Yards.
Wyoming vs Hawaii Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wyoming and Hawaii match up statistically:
Wyoming Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 111 | |
| Line Yards | 39 | 118 | |
| Pass Success | 112 | 99 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 14 | 93 | |
| Havoc | 40 | 127 | |
| Finishing Drives | 73 | 117 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Hawaii Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 80 | |
| Line Yards | 74 | 88 | |
| Pass Success | 108 | 44 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 72 | 117 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 87 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 111 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 128 | 127 |
| PFF Coverage | 84 | 120 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 24 | 90 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.2 (103) | 26.0 (52) |
| Rush Rate | 60.4% (18) | 46.4% (106) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Wyoming vs Hawaii Betting Pick
I'm a fan of laying the chalk on Wyoming anywhere south of -11.
This number closed Wyoming -13.5 last year, and even after adjusting for Hawaii's home-field advantage, I don't think it should be any lower than the 2021 spread.
The current Warriors' roster is that bad.
They're 126th in Wilson's Power Ratings, and arguably the two most inspiring games of the season were against Colorado State (125th in PR) and Nevada (124th).
The Mountain West is far from formidable, but there's a bigger drop-off in talent from Wyoming to Hawaii than most think.
Plus, with double-digit winds on the radar, I love siding with a team that can run the ball.
Take the favorite in the final game of Week 9.
Pick: Wyoming -10.5 |
