Bears vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - September 24, 2023

Bears at Chiefs

8:25 pm • FOX

Chicago Bears

4-10

10 - 41

Kansas City Chiefs

14-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Bears 4-10	+12.5-112	o48.5-110	+525
Chiefs 14-1	-12.5-107	u48.5-110	-750

Sunday 8:25 p.m.

September 24, 2023

GEHA Field at Arrowhead StadiumKansas City

KC -12.5+162

0.81u

Builder

KC -7.5 (1H)+110

1.1u

K.Toney u28.5 Rec Yds-110

0.91u

Koerner’s prop

CHI +12.5-110

1.1u

K.Toney u28.5 Rec Yds-115

0.5u

Via @The_Oddsmaker

T.Kelce Anytime TD Scorer-145

0.69u

CHI +12.5-110

0.55u

Over 48-110

0.91u

K.Toney u29.5 Rec Yds-120

J.Fields o60.5 Rush Yds-110

1.1u

K.Herbert o8.5 Rec Yds-117

R.Johnson o39.5 Rush + Rec Yds-114

J.Watson o14.5 Longest Reception-115

0.35u

R.Johnson o25.5 Rush Yds-120

0.83u

J.Fields o52.5 Rush Yds-115

0.25u

Fields had at least 53 rushing yards in nine of 10 games to end last season. I know that. You know that. Why don't Chicago's coaches seem to know that?

R.Johnson o36.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115

0.43u

Love this play by @PropBetGuy

R.Johnson o36.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115

Over in 2/2 games, with an increasing snap count, and rumblings that he’s ticketed to take over as the starter. Even if he gets the same snap splits as last week (42%), i see several avenues for him to get to the over. One is through receiving - he’s second on the bears in targets and probably already their best back in pass protection. And then two is garbage time potential - this game could get out of hand in the 2H, which I think likely means we see more of him on the field. He’s been the lone bright spot for this offense so far - I like him to keep rolling.

CHI +13-110

$55.00

Bears in shambles. No shot they cover after the worst week in franchise history.

Over 47.5-111

0.9u

Highest Bears total of the season, must play

CHI +12.5-110

0.55u

Gotta do it. Fuck.

Over 47.5-110

0.91u

Available at FanDuel. I know the Chiefs' offense hasn't lit it up yet, but against this defense, they could push for an over here by themselves. The Bears have let up 0.50 EPA per drop back (per numberFire's EPA metric) through two games while facing Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love. Now, they have to face Patrick Mahomes on the road. I realize that a total of 47.5 requires some push back on the other side, which might be tough with Chris Jones back. But the Bears are close to desperation mode and might have to lean back into Justin Fields as a runner again. My model has this total at 50.1, even with 9 mile-per-hour winds currently in the forecast.

Featured Insight
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 42.0% on 3rd and long since the 2022 season -- best in NFL. The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 38.0% when defending on 3rd and long since the 2022 season -- worst in NFL.

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Featured Insight
The Bears are 1-8 (.111) on the road since the 2022 season -- second-worst in NFL. Chiefs are 7-2 (.778) at home since the 2022 season -- sixth-best in NFL.

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NFL Public Betting

Chiefs are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Chiefs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Chiefs are 3-3 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Chiefs' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Chiefs' 8 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chiefs	6-8-1	3-5	3-3-1	5-7-1	1-1
Bears	7-7-1	4-2-1	2-5	3-1	4-6-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Chiefs	7-8	4-4	3-4	6-7	1-1
Bears	6-9	4-3	1-6	2-2	4-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Chiefs	14-1	N/A	N/A	13-0	1-1
Bears	4-10	N/A	N/A	3-1	1-10

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 17th	@JAC	W 17-9	-3.5 W	U 50.5	KC -165
Sep 8th	DET	L 20-21	-4 L	U 52.5	DET -210
Aug 26th	CLE	W 33-32	+4.5 W	O 41	KC +170
Aug 20th	@ARI	W 38-10	-7.5 W	O 40.5	KC -325
Aug 13th	@NO	L 24-26	+1.5 L	O 38.5	NO +100

Tarvarius Moore
S
Moore is questionable with concussion
Questionable

Ryan Bates
OL
Bates is out with concussion
Out
Travis Homer
RB
Homer is out with hamstring
Out
Jaylon Johnson
DB
Johnson is questionable with illness
Questionable
Darrynton Evans
RB
Evans is out with hamstring
Out
Teven Jenkins
OL
Jenkins is questionable with calf
Questionable
Braxton Jones
OL
Jones is questionable with concussion
Questionable
Doug Kramer
OL
Kramer is doubtful with shoulder
Doubtful
Gervon Dexter
DE
Dexter is questionable with knee
Questionable
Kiran Amegadjie
OL
Amegadjie is questionable with calf
Questionable

D.J. Humphries
T
Humphries is out with hamstring
Out
Mecole Hardman
WR
Hardman is questionable with knee
Questionable
Leo Chenal
LB
Chenal is questionable with illness
Questionable
Rashee Rice
WR
Rice is out with leg
Out
Chamarri Conner
DB
Conner is out with concussion
Out
Cam Jones
LB
Jones is questionable with illness
Questionable
Jared Wiley
TE
Wiley is out with knee
Out
Spencer Shrader
K
Shrader is out with hamstring
Out

See more NFL Injuries

Bears

Total

Chiefs

203

Total Yards

456

Total Plays

Yards Per Play

6.1

Bears

Passing

Chiefs

YDS

303

11/22

Comps/Atts

27/38

3.48

YPA

7.974

1/1

TDs/INTs

3/2

3/12

Sacks/Yards

0/0

Bears

Rushing

Chiefs

116

Rush Yards

153

Attempts

4.462

YPC

4.135

TDs

Bears

Turnovers

Chiefs

Fumbles Lost

Interceptions

Bears

Efficiency

Chiefs

1/2 50%

Redzone

5/5 100%

4/12 0%

3rd Down

10/14 0%

1/2 0%

4th Down

0/0 0%

Bears

First Downs

Chiefs

Total

Pass

Rush

Penalty

Bears

Misc

Chiefs

6/32

Penalties/Yards

3/15

23:47

Possession

36:13

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MatchupOverUnder
Bears 4-10	o18-103	u18-127
Chiefs 14-1	o30.5-116	u30.5-108

Bears vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - September 24, 2023

Bears at Chiefs

Chicago Bears

Kansas City Chiefs

Bears at Chiefs Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

PRO Insights

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Chiefs

Bears vs. Chiefs Previews & Analysis

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Bears vs. Chiefs Props

Prop Projections

Prop Odds Comparison

Line Movement Tracker

Bears vs. Chiefs Public Betting Percentages

Bears

Public

Chiefs

Bets%

Money%

Betting Trends

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

Over/Under History

Straight-Up (ML) History

Last 5 Matchups

Bears vs. Chiefs Injury Updates

Bears Injuries

Chiefs Injuries

Bears vs. Chiefs Odds Comparison

Bears at Chiefs Team Totals