Bills vs. Chiefs Odds & Betting Predictions - December 10, 2023

Bills at Chiefs

9:25 pm • CBS
20 - 17

Bills at Chiefs Odds

Spread, Total, Moneyline

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Bills
7-2
+1.5
+1.5-110
o49-110
+105
Chiefs
8-0
u48.5
-1.5-110
u49-110
-125
location pinSunday 9:25 p.m.
December 10, 2023
GEHA Field at Arrowhead StadiumKansas City
Bills vs. Chiefs Expert Picks
Shady Biev
Shady Biev
330d ago
Last 30d: 210-217-4 (+18.7u)
KC +4.5 (Live)-118
2u
Nick Martin
Nick Martin
330d ago
Last 30d: 138-223-1 (+4.3u)
BUF +2-110
0.91u
Shady Biev
Shady Biev
330d ago
Last 30d: 210-217-4 (+18.7u)
R.Rice o51.5 Rec Yds-115
2u
C.Edwards-Helaire Anytime TD Scorer Yes+155
1.29u
GoldBoys x JD Picks
GoldBoys x JD Picks
330d ago
Last 30d: 0-1-0 (-1.3u)
D.Kincaid o36.5 Rec Yds-110
1.1u
Ryanpropz NFL Straight
YBK Picks.com
330d ago
Last 30d: 47-53-1 (-16.8u)
BUF +1.5-105
1.9u
The Touchdown Show
The Touchdown Show
330d ago
Last 30d: 11-40-0 (+8.8u)
J.Allen Anytime TD Scorer Yes+165
1.65u
Via Brian Matthews
The Faves Five
The Faves Five
330d ago
Last 30d: 10-15-0 (-6.5u)
KC -1.5-107
1.07u
Tanner McGrath
Tanner McGrath
330d ago
Last 30d: 57-68-5 (-19.6u)
J.Allen o32.5 Rush Yds-120
1.2u
Simon Hunter
Simon Hunter
330d ago
Last 30d: 25-29-1 (-7.8u)
KC -2-107
1u
Convince Me
Convince Me
331d ago
Last 30d: 30-28-1 (-1.9u)
KC -1-107
1u
@SimonHunterNFL
Mjaybrod
Mjaybrod
331d ago
Last 30d: 113-127-0 (-4.6u)
BUF +2-110
0.91u
Chiefs -120 ML at home should be free
Sean Koerner
Sean Koerner
331d ago
Last 30d: 33-29-0 (+0.4u)
C.Edwards-Helaire u46.5 Rush Yds-115
1u
Joe Dellera
Joe Dellera
331d ago
Last 30d: 54-66-1 (-4.8u)
J.Allen o33.5 Rush Yds-110
0.65u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
Top Shelf Action 🥃
331d ago
Last 30d: 201-231-1 (-18.0u)
BUF +100
1u
Matthew Freedman
Matthew Freedman
331d ago
Last 30d: 2-2-0 (+0.0u)
BUF +100
1.1u
Projection: Bills -109. For more, check out Fantasy Life.
Shady Biev
Shady Biev
331d ago
Last 30d: 210-217-4 (+18.7u)
KC -1-110
2.2u
Prop Bet Guy
Prop Bet Guy
331d ago
Last 30d: 100-81-0 (+8.7u)
D.Kincaid u16.5 Longest Reception-120
1u
Widely available at -125 Under in 9/11, with only 2 of his 56 catches going for 17+. 5.7 aDOT - significantly lower than the Bills WRs - only 6/64 targets have traveled even 15 air yards. Dawson Knox likely to play, which could cut into Kincaid’s snap share or volume - but even if Knox is out, I love this spot. Chiefs 7th in DVOA vs TEs (FTN Fantasy), and are top 6 in targets, rec and yards allowed to the position.
Brandon Anderson
Brandon Anderson
331d ago
Last 30d: 38-68-0 (+1.2u)
J.McKinnon o16.5 Rec Yds-119
1.05u
every game every team https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-14-odds-picks-preview-bets-every-game-every-team
J.McKinnon o49.5 Rec Yds+1075
0.5u
Jerick escalator
Sandy  Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
331d ago
Last 30d: 105-119-0 (-11.1u)
J.Allen o35.5 Rush Yds-124
$124.00
Brandon Anderson
Brandon Anderson
331d ago
Last 30d: 38-68-0 (+1.2u)
J.Allen 50+ Rushing Yards+320
0.5u
Every Game Every Team https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-14-odds-picks-preview-bets-every-game-every-team
J.Allen o74.5 Rush Yds+1425
0.25u
Allen escalator
Sandy  Plashkes
Sandy Plashkes
332d ago
Last 30d: 105-119-0 (-11.1u)
BUF -110
$50.00
Chad Millman
Chad Millman
332d ago
Last 30d: 25-30-1 (-4.8u)
KC -1-109
1u
Gilles Gallant
Gilles Gallant
333d ago
Last 30d: 49-100-1 (+3.8u)
P.Mahomes o0.5 Int+105
0.53u
The Favorites Podcast
The Favorites Podcast
333d ago
Last 30d: 6-13-1 (-8.3u)
KC -2.5-110
1.1u
Simon Says
Bruce  Marshall
Bruce Marshall
333d ago
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
Under 49-110
0.91u
Brandon Anderson
Brandon Anderson
333d ago
Last 30d: 38-68-0 (+1.2u)
J.Allen o30.5 Rush Yds-110
1.82u
Old faithful! Allen rushing yards in big games. Best bets pod, multi units.
Gilles Gallant
Gilles Gallant
333d ago
Last 30d: 49-100-1 (+3.8u)
C.Edwards-Helaire Anytime TD Scorer+450
0.3u
Bet at Bet365 on 12/07. Down to -115 at FD and +110 at DK. Jerick McKinnon isnt likely to play. Worth a swing if Bet365 is slow to react.
Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes
336d ago
Last 30d: 13-31-0 (-6.2u)
BUF +118
1.18u
Available at FanDuel. Despite their respective records, both of my models view the Bills as a slightly better team on a neutral field than the Chiefs. Obviously, homefield matters, but I'm still showing value in the Bills' ML at +118. The implied odds there are 45.9%, and I've got the Bills at 49.8% to win. This is due to (primarily) three factors. First, the Bills' offense grades out as better than the Chiefs', based on numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Second, the Chiefs' defense suffered some key injuries in Week 13 that could leave them thin this week. Third, the Bills are coming off of a bye, which does net them a boost in the model. Add it all up, and you get a game that looks more like a toss-up than the market implies. It's never fun to bet against Mahomes and Andy Reid, but I do agree with what the model is saying here.

PRO Insights

Bills logo

Bills

BUF Insights
  • Bills logoThe Bills are averaging 5.0 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field __Previous 4 Weeks PresentPerfect__ -- eighth-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 9.0 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left to RBs since Week 10 -- worst in NFL.
TRY FOR FREE
Chiefs logo

Chiefs

KC Insights
  • Chiefs logoThe Bills have run successful plays on 25.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season -- tied for ninth-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have pressured opposing QBs on 28.0% of passing plays this season -- fifth-best in NFL.
TRY FOR FREE

Bills vs. Chiefs Previews & Analysis

  • Bills vs. Chiefs Props: Bets for Allen, Mahomes & Rice article feature image

    Bills vs. Chiefs Props: Bets for Allen, Mahomes & Rice

    Michael Crosson
    Dec 10, 2023 UTC
  • Gallant's Anytime TD Picks & Preview for Week 14 article feature image

    Gallant's Anytime TD Picks & Preview for Week 14

    Gilles Gallant
    Dec 10, 2023 UTC
  • Our Sunday Best Bets for NFL Week 14 article feature image

    Our Sunday Best Bets for NFL Week 14

    Action Network Staff
    Dec 10, 2023 UTC
  • Bills vs. Chiefs: Play the Buffalo Moneyline article feature image

    Bills vs. Chiefs: Play the Buffalo Moneyline

    Anthony Dabbundo
    Dec 10, 2023 UTC
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Bills vs. Chiefs Props

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Bills vs. Chiefs Public Betting Percentages

64%

Bets%

36%

Money%

Matchup History

Against the Spread (ATS) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Chiefs
4-3-12-22-1-13-3-11-0
Bills
5-42-23-24-21-2

Over/Under History

overallhome o/uaway o/ufavorite o/uunderdog o/u
Chiefs
4-43-11-34-30-1
Bills
5-44-01-45-10-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

overallhomeawayfavoriteunderdog
Chiefs
8-0N/AN/A7-01-0
Bills
7-2N/AN/A6-01-2

Last 5 Matchups

dateopponentscorespreadover/undermoneyline
Dec 4th@GBL 19-27-5.5 LO 43.5GB -245
Nov 26th@LVW 31-17-9.5 WO 42.5KC -485
Nov 21stPHIL 17-21-2.5 LU 46PHI -145
Nov 5thMIAW 21-14+0.5 WU 51.5KC -110
Oct 29th@DENL 9-24-7 LU 45.5DEN -340

Chiefs vs. Bills Injury Updates

Chiefs Injuries

  • JuJu Smith-Schuster
    WR

    Smith-Schuster is out with hamstring

    Out

  • Hollywood Brown
    WR

    Hollywood Brown (shoulder surgery) headed to IR.

    Out

  • Mike Danna
    DE

    Danna is out with pectoral

    Out

  • Isiah Pacheco
    RB

    Isiah Pacheco set to miss "real time" with fibula fracture, per Ian Rapoport.

    Out

  • Nazeeh Johnson
    S

    Johnson is out with concussion

    Out

  • Rashee Rice
    WR

    Rice is out with leg

    Out

  • Jared Wiley
    TE

    Wiley is out with knee

    Out

Bills Injuries

  • Amari Cooper
    WR

    Cooper is questionable with wrist

    Questionable

  • Reggie Gilliam
    FB

    Gilliam is out with hip

    Out

  • Christian Benford
    CB

    Benford is out with wrist

    Out

  • Keon Coleman
    WR

    Coleman is questionable with wrist

    Questionable

  • DeWayne Carter
    DT

    Carter is out with wrist

    Out

Team Stats
327
Total Yards
346
73
Total Plays
62
4.5
Yards Per Play
5.6
233
YDS
271
23/42
Comps/Atts
25/43
4.644
YPA
6
1/1
TDs/INTs
1/1
3/24
Sacks/Yards
1/7
118
Rush Yards
82
28
Attempts
18
4.214
YPC
4.556
1
TDs
1

Turnovers

0
Fumbles Lost
1
1
Interceptions
1

Efficiency

1/2 50%
Redzone
2/3 66.67%
6/15 0%
3rd Down
6/12 0%
1/1 0%
4th Down
0/1 0%

First Downs

21
Total
21
12
Pass
14
8
Rush
6
1
Penalty
1
4/35
Penalties/Yards
7/45
35:21
Possession
24:39

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds Comparison

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Bills at Chiefs Team Totals

MatchupOverUnder
Bills
7-2
o24.5+100
u24.5-122
Chiefs
8-0
o24.5-125
u24.5-110