Jets vs. Giants Odds & Betting Predictions - October 29, 2023

Via Brian Matthews

The Giants have one receiver who’s recorded a 33+ yard catch: Jaylin Hyatt. Him and Slayton have brutal matchups on the outside today vs Sauce and Reed (Jets are 3rd in DVOA vs the deep ball). Waller is probably the Giants best shot at a long completion, but his aDOT is down with a long reception of 27 this season. The Jets in general have allowed the seventh lowest aDOT (7.3 yards) and have held 3/6 opp QBs under this line (despite facing Mahomes, Allen and Hurts).

Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-week-8-player-props-elijah-moore-quincy-williams

Breece has seen his snap count increase each week, and faces a Giants defense that’s giving up 4.98 YPC to opposing RB’s 42 touches in the last two weeks, and I only see that continuing Jets running back Dalvin Cook has asked for a trade, so let’s feed the Breece.

Simon Says

Smash spot for Breece, so jumping on this line now. Giants give up 4.98 YPC to opposing RB’s.

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Simon Says on @TheFavoritesPodcast

Available at FanDuel. This is a neutral field, and the Jets are coming off a bye, but even still, my model makes this game basically a toss-up. I'm guessing this number is where it is because of the Jets' improved "let it rip" philosophy before their bye. Even with more trust in Zach Wilson, Wilson is at -0.02 Passing NEP per drop back (NEP is numberFire's EPA metric). It's better than before, for sure. But it's still not the model of efficiency. On the Giants' side, they seem likely to get left tackle Andrew Thomas back this week after an extended absence. The model views Tyrod Taylor and Daniel Jones very similarly, so that part won't impact things here much. It's a low-total game (that earns its low total), so getting points in a potential low-scoring affair doesn't hurt, either.