Lions vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - October 13, 2024

Will Pay To See This Lose

#Tailing @TheBMatt

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Going down to the ranch this afternoon

@TheBMatt

Played this at 272.5 in VIP on Tuesday, have it tracked at 279.5 for Pass the Prop Full breakdown there. Record 26-13 17.19 units

Sneaky spot here that I am really liking. Most of y'all are probably like "who the f*ck is Brock Wright" lol, but hear me out. The Lions will be in Dallas this week and this defense is banged up. The Cowboys are missing tons of guys along their front 7 as I mentioned in the Monty write up, so I expect the Lions to be able to run the ball well as coach Campbell loves to do. However, another big key to the Lions offense is play action. Goff is a play action QB and the Lions love to run 2 TE sets to help sell the run and leak one out the back, this is where Brock comes in. If you have watched the Lions the last 2 weeks, Brock has been seeing an increase in snaps from playing a 40% avg for the 1st 2 weeks, to now playing an avg of 62% over the last 2 weeks. In these last 2 games with increase snaps, Brock has recorded 4 rec 34 yards and 2 rec 13 yards, with a total of 7 targets. Brock is mainly brought in to block, but the Lions use specificly designed plays to get him the ball as teams focus LaPorta. The Cowboys have been weak against TEs this season and even vs the backup TEs. Notable TE performances vs the DAL defense: Njoku 44 yards Atkins 27 yards (Njoku's backup TE) Kolar 30 yards on 1 catch (3rd string TE) Freiermuth 22 yards 1 TD Heyward 23 yards 1 TD (Freiermuth's backup TE) If you don't wanna get a lil risky with a sneaky play, then just skip this one, but I have watched enough Lions football to know that OC Ben Johnson loves to get creative with Brock and when he does, it has led to some big play potential. Brock had 57 yards and 4 catches in last years game against Dallas and I like him to get over this low line with one of his classic back door leak outs for a 10 yard catch.

Monty has a great matchup this week vs a weak Dallas Cowboys run defense that has been bleeding yards to opposing RBs. Other top running backs that have faced the Cowboys have had some of their best games of the season against them. Kamara had 115 and 3 TDs and Henry had 151 yards and 2 TD against this run defense. This week the Lions will be on the road in Dallas and the Cowboys are dealing with a lot of injuries. Both DeMarcus Lawrence and Jordan Philips were placed on short-term IR and LB Eric Kendricks has not practiced this week with a calf/shoulder injury, and could also miss this game. LB Nick Vigil and Micah Parsons will also miss this week. Even with the injuries, HC Dan Campbell wants to run the football and his O-Line gets a big boost this week with one of the best centers in the NFL returning, Frank Ragnow. This Lions O-Line gets a great push up front, allowing their backs to pick up easy 4-5 yard gains. Gibbs has been playing well and has a higher line this week, but Monty has been the more used back when on the road seeing 60% of the snaps to 53% for Gibbs since the pair have been in Detroit. I expect the Lions to seek revenge for last years controversial loss in Dallas and use Monty to bleed the clock and close out the win.

Already bet this but still like at -3 if you haven’t played — Week 6 best bets / TAN pod

Exec Decision per @millmanc

Executive Decision

Stuckey 3

🔬Scared money don’t make no money and I’m willing to go the max bet on Lamb hitting the century mark here in a game with a 52.5 over under and one of Pat Thormans highest projected pace of play games of the week. 🔬Lions have given up Godwin- 7/117, Kupp 14-110, and other notable inside wr’s Vs the Lions are JSN 8/51, Ty Johnson 5/79 🔬Lions running cover 1 at the 4th highest rate in the league. Which Lamb is better against, Ceedee is one of the top 3 wr vs man in the league. 🔬After last weeks 2nd half dud in Primetime, I think there is also a bit of a squeeky wheel narrative here where Lamb gets peppered with targets in what should be a competitive shootout.

1.50 career YPRR so last week's 50 yds on 15 routes (w/ 3.4 aDOT, no less) was fluky. Still clear WR4 (29% snaps) behind Brooks (49%). Proj 24.

Absolute smash spot for CeeDee. Lions run man coverage at the 6th highest rate (~40%) which CeeDee destroys. 16 targets vs man (highest by 9), 30% target share, and a 4.33 Y/RR which is just absurd. Has 234 yards in man vs ~ 100 yards vs zone. Lions corners have been poor to start the year and after a down game vs the Steelers I’m expecting Dallas to get Ceedee involved early often like we see them do all the time. Expecting Dallas to be trailing in this one which would lead to a passing game script. Wrs who excel in man cov vs Lions: Kupp: 110 yards Godwin: 117 yards Metcalf: 104

Even with the Lions getting a post-bye bump, still have the Lions as just slim favorites here.

@millmanc

Tailing @wheatonbrando

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