Steelers vs. Colts Odds & Betting Predictions - September 29, 2024

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🔑 Colts ML +122 (FanDuel) 2u This is ugly and makes no sense but I I just feel this one in my gut. The Colts have not looked good but then why are they only 2.5 point underdogs? Makes no sense. Reading between the lines here, I like the value and think it’s worth the risk. My system grades this out well at a B and +101, again we are getting good value

Redemption story in Pittsburgh

@The_Oddsmaker

FD

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Speed is over this line in each game this season, and 7/L7 dating back to last season. This should be a fantastic spot for him to rack up the tackles, as the Steelers love to run (3rd highest run play%), and have allowed the third most tackles per game, and the most tackles per game to opposing LBs (per PFF). I don’t have faith in Indy’s offense to be able to move the ball against the Steelers defense either.

#ProSystem … early season over after under Overall: 80-40-0,67% (ROI:30%) Season:1-3-0,25% (ROI:-52%)

Giving out props on Prop Drop right now

Pickens gets a great matchup this week facing the Colts who have been horrible on the defensive side of the ball. IND ranks pass defense ranks 21st and have allowed Nico Collins to have 117 yards and 3 players from the Bears last week to have massive games. Odunze had 112, Moore had 78 and Kmet had 97 yards. It gets even worse for the Colts as their CB Kenny Moore II was ruled out due to injury. Pickens has been Fields clear top target and I expect them to take advantage this week. Pickens is over this line in 2/3 games this season and in both games he was targeted 7 times.

Smacking this again at the better number!!

#LuckRankings

Pittman is under in all three games so far, with a long catch of 13 yards, and an aDOT of 10.3 yards. Low volume passing offense that just got Josh Downs back (he will see more targets than Adonai Mitchell had been), and Alec Pierce has commanded the majority of the deep shots (6 of 13 richardson’s throws 20+ yards down the field). Brutal matchup against Joey Porter Jr - Steelers are #1 in FTN’s DVOA vs WR1. Porter has only seen 11 targets in three games (13.5% rate), and Pittman’s win rate and separation scores (per Fantasy Points) are both well below avg.

Simon Says

Raybon 1

And a quarter unit here to finish the ladder. Certainly don’t mind 100+ either.

Pickens is the unquestioned alpha on the Steelers now without Diontae Johnson averaging 57.0 recyds/ game. He’s had 50+ yards in two of his three games, with one of his misses coming vs. the Broncos where he was covered by the elite CB Pat Surtain II and in a positive game script where the the ran for the sixth-most in the league in Week 2. In the following week, Pickens saw a Chargers squad that play two-high safety at a top-6 rate (where I purposely target Freiermuth instead) in where the top is covered for big plays and he sees 2.41 YPRR ranking 25th in his position. Despite this, Pickens still saw 7 targets for 57 yards. But his best matchup has yet to come and that’s this Week vs. the Colts. Not only do they run single-high at top-10 rate, they also are running Cover-3 at the 5th highest rate in the league. Last year, Pickens ranked 4th amongst all receivers averaging 3.54 YPRR in this coverage and is continuing where he left off with 3.70 📈 from 2.31 YPRR regular. Running his routes primarily out wide, he will avoid slot CB Kenny Moore and face a Colts squad that’s allowed the 4th-most PPG toward the perimeter. Players who fit this description they’ve faced include Doubs (62), Collins (117), Moore (78), & Odunze (112). Pickens is one of the best separators in the league so this is a ceiling spot waiting to happen. #PlayerProps

Excellent matchup for Pickens. He was 6th among WRs in yards per route run against single high/middle field closed looks in 2023. IND leads the league in Cover 3 (one-high safety) coverage. Outside receivers have torched them this season (Collins, Moore, Odunze). Volume is a question, but he should produce when PIT chooses to pass.

Dude has been a ghost for 3 weeks

Follow On X: https://x.com/PicksOffice The Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense has been their cornerstone, and after allowing just 8.7 points per game in their first three outings, this trend shows no signs of fading. Pittsburgh held their last opponent, the Chargers, to a mere 10 points, and that included a second-half shutout. With the Colts' offense sputtering as they average only 19.3 points per game, this sets up for a low-scoring contest. The Colts have also shown inefficiency on third downs, converting just 32.3%, and have been error-prone with Anthony Richardson already throwing six interceptions. Both teams come into this game with weak passing offenses, as the Steelers average only 158.3 passing yards per game, while the Colts are slightly better at 184.3 yards. Pittsburgh’s third-down defense, allowing less than 40% conversion rates, will make it even harder for Indianapolis to sustain drives. Historically, the Steelers have consistently hit the under when they’re road favorites coming off a win. Thirteen of their last 14 games in this scenario have fallen below the total, which supports the case for a defensive battle. The Steelers' offense has also been far from explosive, putting up just 17 points per game despite their undefeated start. While Najee Harris has been solid on the ground, averaging around 70 yards per game, Pittsburgh’s lack of explosive plays in the air means they’re not built to run away with high-scoring contests. On the Colts' side, while Jonathan Taylor had a breakout game with 110 yards in the Colts’ victory over Chicago, their passing attack has been a liability. Richardson’s completion percentage sits under 50%, and with Pittsburgh’s stout defense, there’s a high likelihood that he will struggle to move the ball effectively. Indianapolis’ inability to stretch the field with deep passing threats further reduces the chances of a shootout. The Steelers' defense, ranked among the top in points allowed, will focus on shutting down Taylor, forcing Richardson into uncomfortable passing situations where he’s already shown a tendency for turnovers. In summary, both teams lean heavily on their defenses, and with the Steelers' suffocating performance through three weeks and Indianapolis' inconsistent offense, this game has all the makings of another low-scoring affair. The combination of sluggish offenses and strong defenses points to the under being the most likely outcome.

I don’t normally like to bet sides but I see some concerning things for the Colts here in the matchup. The Colts haven’t possessed the ball for more than 57 plays in a game, while allowing their opponents possess the ball for massive totals above 70 and even 80 plays. This is almost precisely the inverse of the Steelers, who win close games against tough opponents with sustained drive possession. So now layer this on to the matchup of Colts offense vs. Steelers defense. Is it easier to see Anthony Richardson dropping 60 yard explosive chunks and / or ground game dominance against a top 5 DVOA defense? Or is it easier to forecast more outcomes where the Steelers bottle up the Colts on early downs, and force a young QB into negative plays and mistakes on 3rd down? Which would lead to change of possession, which would lead to a lot of Arthur Smith controlling the clock on offense. I think we see another snoozer here won by PIT.

Fliff

@ChrisRaybon

@SimonHunterNFL

Simon Says bet during our recording of @TheFavoritesPodcast.

Simon says per @TheFavoritesPodcast my model makes this colts -0.5

Give me +3

Lookahead u41 already down to 38.5 some books, DK asleep at the wheel, grab the key while it’s there